northpittweather Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 I want to hear thoughts after looking at the models for the 0z NAM and other ones, looks like this system has a pretty big warm up and with the temps possibly I think a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes could be possible, looks a little bit like December 1st 2006 to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Very impressive winds just off the surface, 75mph at 850mb and 60mph at 925mb on the NAM. The GFS is even more impressive with the small pockets of >70mph winds at 925mb. The cons would appear to be the 9Z - 14Z frontal timing and the sort'a warmish look to the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Very impressive winds just off the surface, 75mph at 850mb and 60mph at 925mb on the NAM. The GFS is even more impressive with the small pockets of >70mph winds at 925mb. The cons would appear to be the 9Z - 14Z frontal timing and the sort'a warmish look to the mid levels. Just ran across a 18z GFS reading out of KMDT (Harrisburg,PA) that had 69kts @ 940 mb level. (via BUFKIT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 Seriously i think we could be looking at a threat for numerous quick hitting tornadoes That Sounding from Harrisburg is stronger than what it was in 2006 We could see a Day 3 Slight Risk tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Seriously i think we could be looking at a threat for numerous quick hitting tornadoes That Sounding from Harrisburg is stronger than what it was in 2006 We could see a Day 3 Slight Risk tomorrow morning SPC would never dare issue a slight risk on D3 in DECEMBER in the Northeast.. Too much bust potential.. But you have to admit.. the kinematics on this thing is HUGE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 784 0-3km Helicity in North Central Maryland on the 0z GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 784 Helicity in North Central Maryland on the 0z GFS.. :twister:it's the suck zone!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Seriously i think we could be looking at a threat for numerous quick hitting tornadoes That Sounding from Harrisburg is stronger than what it was in 2006 We could see a Day 3 Slight Risk tomorrow morning Dec 1 2006 had a different 500 pattern. We don't have that much of a kicker here. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/061201/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Just got in...wow. I'd like to see Ellinwood chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 It could be pretty awesome. Possibly stronger than the last event, but the action will likely not go as far north. Plenty of Gulf feed, very strong winds aloft, rapidly strengthening LL jet leading up to when it impacts our region. Unlike the last severe event, CAD will be more prevalent with this system, so northern extent of the severe will be the key thing to watch. Right now it appears as though northern MD will be on the cusp. I'll do a full write-up tomorrow morning once we get a better idea on where the system's warm sector is going to set up. Northern trend FTW. Full write-up will likely be at 40S only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPR TROF OVER CNTRL CONUS BY TUE MRNG SLOWLY WILL BCM NEGATIVELY TILTED THRU TUE AFTN. PCPN TUE WILL BE DOMINATED BY WARM AIR ADVCTN AS SGFNT FORCING FOR ASCENT RMNS W OF RGN AND FCST AREA RMNS UNDER SUBSIDENT RIGHT EXIT RGN OF MID-LVL JET. SFC TROF BGNS TO ORGANIZE LATE TUE AFTN ACRS WRN ZONES AS UPR TROF BGNS TO LIFT NEWD. INCRG LIFT AND LOW-LVL FOCUS MAY ENHANCE PCPN AMTS ACRS WRN ZONES LATE TUE AFTN. AS SYSTEM NEARS AND SFC TROF STRENGTHENS TUE NGT...BNDRY LYR MSTR /IN THE FORM OF DEWPTS IN EXCESS OF 55 DEG F/ WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE ERN ZONES. DESPITE THIS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MSTR...WARM AIR ADVCTN ALOFT WILL LMT DVLPMT OF SFC-BASED INSTBY. NEVERTHELESS... MODEST AMTS OF ELEVATED INSTBY XPCD IN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. AS FORCING INCRS AND SFC TROF MAKES EWD PROGRESS...PCPN MODE XPCD TO BCM MORE CNVCTV LATE TUE NGT AND EARLY WED MRNG. THERE IS A NON-NEGLIGIBLE PSBLTY OF SVR WX /DMGG WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES/ LATE TUE NGT-EARLY WED MRNG...BUT IT IS BY NO MEANS A HIGH- CONFIDENCE FCST GIVEN LKLY STABILITY OF BNDRY LYR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 Day 3 Outlook has a very huge see text area, that area is going to become very large, i don't agree with it as of yet 12z NAM still shows a very large squall line that would cross the entire Mid Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Has the 12/1/2006 feel (slightly) to it. That was my first weenie tag over on eastern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Full write-up will likely be at 40S only lame... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 lame... Exclusiveness FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Exclusiveness FTW? eh.. i dunno. im not going to contribute both places if others cant figure out how to themselves. not like that's a huge loss for them i suppose. anyway, no reason to derail this thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 eh.. i dunno. im not going to contribute both places if others cant figure out how to themselves. not like that's a huge loss for them i suppose. anyway, no reason to derail this thread... Eh I guess it doesn't matter in the end cause he didn't post any thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Has the 12/1/2006 feel (slightly) to it. That was my first weenie tag over on eastern I remember that date quite well myself... here is a still from a video I took out in Albany that night: Exclusiveness FTW? Gotta hold out for incentives! As I said before on 40S, I'm not typically one to post the same thing on multiple forums. The write-up will come tomorrow once this thing actually starts to develop over the Plains and we can get a better grasp to where the severe action is going to set up. If there really is high demand for it, I could post the full thing in both places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 lame... :lmao: My irony meter just broke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 :lmao: My irony meter just broke. good use of smiley but somewhat predictable ... i didnt abandon 40S, have been part of things going on there... have no interest in battling either. just expressing a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 48 hours out on 18z nam shows very decent warm sector the whole way up into the northern Mid Atlantic Looks like a 2 day severe weather outbreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 SPC SREF has supercell threat in the upper ohio valley into mid atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 48 hours out on 18z nam shows very decent warm sector the whole way up into the northern Mid Atlantic image Looks like a 2 day severe weather outbreak Too bad the warm front will be wayyyyyyyy to our south up until Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 Too bad the warm front will be wayyyyyyyy to our south up until Tuesday night. I am not quite sure about that, the low is the whole into the great lakes, the warm front will pass on monday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 I am not quite sure about that, the low is the whole into the great lakes, the warm front will pass on monday night If you're talking about people west of the Appalachians (up through TN) getting severe on Monday night, that I could believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 If you're talking about people west of the Appalachians (up through TN) getting severe on Monday night, that I could believe. Ellinwood, in all respect, i do think this looks a little bit like December 1st 2006, i remember there were tornado watches in ohio and western appalachians, where temps were in the 50s and no cape was present, just great dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Ellinwood, in all respect, i do think this looks a little bit like December 1st 2006, i remember there were tornado watches in ohio and western appalachians, where temps were in the 50s and no cape was present, just great dynamics All surface temps are not equal. You'll have a sizable inversion in the mid-levels that convection won't be able to crack. Here's your comparison: Surface map from the 2006 11/30 - 12/1 severe event that hit Ohio: Note the huge warm sector and no presence of strong CAD. Here's the HPC forecast for Monday evening: Note how far south the warm front actually is. North of that warm front, you're not gonna get a severe outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 The HPC forecast just dosen't seem right , at this point, the models are all just wacked out here's 00z forecast, i think the warm front will be more north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 The HPC forecast just dosen't seem right , at this point, the models are all just wacked out here's 00z forecast, i think the warm front will be more north Opinions are all good and fine but you think you know better than HPC? Please give reasoning (scientific reasoning) when claiming the HPC is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Afternoon Update: .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS OVER 50 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED JUST A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET FROM THE SURFACE. DESPITE AN UNFAVORABLE DIRECTION OF THE SURFACE WIND...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THE FRONT ALONG WITH UNUSUALLY WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE PROGGED TO BE OVER TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AND THE SYSTEM BEING PROGRESSIVE...LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THIS CAUSES A CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT DOES CAUSE A CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE T-STORMS. HOWEVER...LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT PLENTY OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PREVENT T-STORMS FROM BECOMING ROOTED WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...EVEN WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO SUCH STRONG WINDS JUST A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET FROM THE SURFACE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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