MD Snow Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 congrats us It's posts like these that totally crack me up!! Thanks Ji for keeping things light around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 There's a fair amount of signals pointing towards a decent pattern around the 16th-20th. If we pull off a 5+" event in mid March then this winter is a solid B+ in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 part of the reason you get flash flooding in deserts -- well and the hard rocky ground in many. im not sure i'd characterize the ground as "dry" of recent.. we have had some rain lately. it might be totally normal given how much we've seen in a short period today. i would think that once you have green up moisture starts to almost instantly go into the greenery as well as running off which we dont quite have yet. a rare time where that river guy might come in handy. Another reason MBY receives that kind of "standing runoff" depicted in my earlier pix is because most of my subdivision is built on a sizeable deposit of marine clay, which is prevalent along and east of I-95. Marine clay has high potential to "swell upon wetting, and shrink upon drying," as FfxCo innocuously phrases it on the FAQ web page they publish on that very subject, a fact of which I'm painfully aware -- during the particularly arid summer of 2005 (or was it 2006?), the shrinking marine clay underlying the addition on the rear of my home began literally tearing it AWAY from the main structure. After some re-grading (to channel the water around the addition, as you saw earlier), 14 pile-driven foundation screws and $60K later, our addition is restored and level again. Nonetheless, marine clay constantly throws doorways out of plumb and causes hairline wall cracks ALL year long throughout our house -- it is VILE stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 3 snow threats on 18z run including a HECS at 384. Me thinks the pattern is showing signs of change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 There's a fair amount of signals pointing towards a decent pattern around the 16th-20th. If we pull off a 5+" event in mid March then this winter is a solid B+ in my book. If we get a 5+" event in mid-march, this winter will go from a C- to A+ for me. When was the last time we got a 5+" event after march 15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Im confused I thought I was in the "3.5-6 obs and discussion - rain" thread.. ps. I think the front just passed me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Only because I just found this whilst perusing the interwebz: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2011 Author Share Posted March 6, 2011 If we get a 5+" event in mid-march, this winter will go from a C- to A+ for me. When was the last time we got a 5+" event after march 15? d10+ on the gfs is pretty reliable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 i said we were getting screwed "so far" earlier. i do know how to read a radar of course. <1" rain w/o convectivity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Down to 43.9. 1.34" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Only because I just found this whilst perusing the interwebz: LOVE it -- totally stealing this for some online discussions at work... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2011 Author Share Posted March 6, 2011 <1" rain w/o convectivity? those were scenarios.. yes, i was leaning lighter dc-->east than it ended up being it would seem. the nam was drier for a few runs y-day... it's hard to say it's wrong in a situation like this but it moistened back up into the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2011 Author Share Posted March 6, 2011 did anyone in this area report thunder today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 So bit of light snow still with a 3" total 30.8 degrees now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 did anyone in this area report thunder today? Ignore the stuff in NW Baltimore, that's Electromagnetic Interference from TV hill and the proximity to the sensor at UMBC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Tornado watch up in SE VA... includes Richmond and Hampton Roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Some sleet mixing in with this latest batch here. Still mostly rain, and 36 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0041.html DISCUSSION...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE BAND HAS FORMED ALONG A LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER ERN NC/SE VA THIS EVE...ON LEADING EDGE OF MID-LVL HEIGHT FALLS/COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING UPR VORT. STRENGTH OF LOW-LVL WIND FIELD AND WEAK LINEAR FORCING IN SRN PART OF CONVECTIVE BAND SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LVL MESOS/ISOLD TORNADOES IN E CNTRL/NE NC. FARTHER N...LOW-LVL LINEAR FORCING WILL INCREASE THIS EVE AS SFC COLD FRONT OVERTAKES CONVECTIVE BAND. THIS SUGGESTS A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LEWPS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND IN NRN PART OF WW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2011 Author Share Posted March 6, 2011 Ignore the stuff in NW Baltimore, that's Electromagnetic Interference from TV hill and the proximity to the sensor at UMBC. so not much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa....tch/ww0041.html Maybe they'll extend a token SVR watch farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Maybe they'll extend a token SVR watch farther north. If the line can hold it looks like southern MD and Delmarva could be in for some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Just nasty out there right now. 40.1 with a howling wind driven rain. 1.5 so far. Backyard is a stream. One more good batch and it will end. Prob by 9pm or so as it looks. Rome NY looks like the sweet spot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 1.42" of liquid. Now its pouring sleet. Radar looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Snowing out here in Winchester. Nice surprise. I was not expecting to see any flakes. Wont amount to anything though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Disclaimer: I realize I will get plain rain tonight - NO mix - But it has fallen to 38 degrees, dewpoint 34. I realize stormpc has a reading of 40 degrees but I stand by my WeatherBug no matter what - I don't use thermometers anymore Dryslot with strong midlevel drying will end the rain before it can mix, even if it cools to 29 degrees, which it won't NWS needs to get a clue and quit claiming our overnight low is gonna be 35 degrees. It's almost that cool now lol I'm enjoying my rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 I do not have a rain gauge to measure but have had quite a stream just out back for most of the day. We are in new construction and the streets were a muddy stream most of the day. Currently 41 but earlier we were pushing 60. Seems to be picking up here again. We went out to run some errands today and quickly decided that we should have just stayed in. Water was standing all over, and on I- 70 it felt like the car was pushing through the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Couple of decent stronger lines have been running NNE with this rainband, one right now working its way up towards the NE states which looks pretty solid. Any thunder reports with these bands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 snowing here now, pretty good rate. It was 56 degrees at 11 a.m. Under 35 now, with those big wet flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 wonder how close into the cities the changeover will make it. i could almost see it ending as snow here but perhaps that's a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 It was 56 degrees at 11 a.m. Under 35 now, with those big wet flakes. Hope you get a good burst. You have night advantage now too. Still snowing here. Over 3" and now 30.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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