Threat Thread

[Baroclinic Zone]

It's hard to tell whether he likes the patten after the 12/5 storm for snow or the 12/5 storm itself.

Mid week and beyond would be after the 12/5 retrograde storm.

[powderfreak]

Didn't BTV get like 40'' over a couple days during that?

Yeah it was the January 1-4 period.

Jan 2nd saw 18.9" followed by 16.4" on Jan 3rd.

But I digress...

Will stop talking about upslope stuff for a bit as its very MBY centric.

[dryslot]

Yeah you don't really see much ice in retro storms. That's what I meant. Those storms don't produce much sleet or zr.

Ok, That makes better sense, ESE winds backing in from the maritimes spells doom here.....

[Baroclinic Zone]

[dryslot]

Didn't BTV get like 40'' over a couple days during that?

I believe they did.........

[powderfreak]

Don't forget we just retrograded a storm south of Cape Cod from the maritimes earlier this month which gave interior snow and coast and parts of NNE rain..It can happen in these blocking regimes

Very good point... I had ZR while Ginx got 2" of snow.

[Guvna]

Big dog all over it for us

The Big Dog shows the upcoming mid week storm and then the pattern after that should lead to snow from the central plains to the mid and north atlantic states next weekend or early the following week, with a stronger system behind it later next week.

Department of Redundancy Department......

[dryslot]

Can we lock that in right now?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah it was the January 1-4 period.

Jan 2nd saw 18.9" followed by 16.4" on Jan 3rd.

But I digress...

Will stop talking about upslope stuff for a bit as its very MBY centric.

Go right ahead....was just bustn' your ballz.

[TalcottWx]

That's borderline incoherent.

He's borderline useless.

I'm back at BA. inch of snow on all surfaces including non plowed side streets. LOL. Gotta love Maine. Probably about 23 F.

[skierinvermont]

By Day 7, there's a strong Rex block over the Yukon and Alaska, combining with the -NAO to increase our cold air source. However we're barely holding onto the trough, as the sub-tropical ridge is powerful in such a potent Niña. It's trying to torch the CONUS despite a fairly -EPO/-NAO look:

Most of the country is actually at or below average D7 and virtually all of the country is well below average by D8-9. The ridging is only at 500mb but there is plenty of surface cold... normal for a -EPO/-NAO overrunning type pattern.

Day 8.5:

[Ginx snewx]

By Day 7, there's a strong Rex block over the Yukon and Alaska, combining with the -NAO to increase our cold air source. However we're barely holding onto the trough, as the sub-tropical ridge is powerful in such a potent Niña. It's trying to torch the CONUS despite a fairly -EPO/-NAO look:

Looks exactly like Mid Dec 1970 map I posted last week, barely held on for an entire winter NAO FTW

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks exactly like Mid Dec 1970 map I posted last week, barely held on for an entire winter NAO FTW

Oh god :weenie:

You have my vote

[powderfreak]

Oh god :weenie:

You have my vote

Ginx has been on a roll lately... you would think 20-40" and sub-zero cold is always on the horizon by some of his posts

[nzucker]

Most of the country is actually at or below average D7 and virtually all of the country is well below average by D8-9. The ridging is only at 500mb but there is plenty of surface cold... normal for a -EPO/-NAO overrunning type pattern.

Day 8.5:

The 18z GFS ENS also show a colder look at 500mb with less ridging over the Plains. You can see that heights over the NE/OK border on the OP 18z are around 570dm whereas the ENS shows 558dm at Day 7.

[Ginx snewx]

Ginx has been on a roll lately... you would think 20-40" and sub-zero cold is always on the horizon by some of his posts

What the heck r u talking about , link please.

[powderfreak]

What the heck r u talking about , link please.

Haha no not meant in a bad way at all... your enthusiasm is infectious. I love that we never hear anything negative out of you... that's what I was getting at. Its always optimistic for the next great cold and snowy pattern. That's why although don't always agree, I love reading the posts from you, Pete, and Jerry. Its always cold and its always snowy on the horizon.

[Ginx snewx]

Oh god :weenie:

You have my vote

And that was a lie or embellishment . You won WOTY not for your Met knowledge remember but for your panic attacks and meltdowns.

[nzucker]

Most of the country is actually at or below average D7 and virtually all of the country is well below average by D8-9. The ridging is only at 500mb but there is plenty of surface cold... normal for a -EPO/-NAO overrunning type pattern.

As many surmised, the chief theme early in this winter is the Pacific battling to raise heights against a strong -NAO/-AO block that looks like the continuation of Winter 09-10. It looks as if the severity of the arctic block may win in the first half of December, but the pattern is pretty unpredictable right now. It's hard to get a storm to amplify with the massive GoA low shown one the GFS Ensembles at Day 7, as you say looks more like an overrunning pattern. However, the ECM actually shows a coastal and not an overrunning threat.

[Ginx snewx]

Haha no not meant in a bad way at all... your enthusiasm is infectious. I love that we never hear anything negative out of you... that's what I was getting at. Its always optimistic for the next great cold and snowy pattern. That's why although don't always agree, I love reading the posts from you, Pete, and Jerry. Its always cold and its always snowy on the horizon.

Ain't no place for the negative way make way for a positive day.

Gotcha.

[Ginx snewx]

Ginx has been on a roll lately... you would think 20-40" and sub-zero cold is always on the horizon by some of his posts

Oh and by the way, that is not far fetched for your upslope areas by the time Dec is up.

[powderfreak]

Any no place for the negative way make way for a positive day.

Gotcha.

A great way to live your life. Sorry for the banter... Will's gonna have a conniption when he comes back.

[ski MRG]

Nahh dude, forget if Ski Patrol has them closed... we'll ski 'em anyway. This place has very relaxed closure policies.

But the Front Four isn't where its at... we will go out-of-bounds and ski the Mansfield backcountry... you'll never go back to MRG after skiing some of the lines, chutes, bowls, and snowfields that I'll show ya

Been, there done that. Great stuff but still no MRG. I'll give you the guided tour there and you'll jump ship on Stowe.

[Ginx snewx]

A great way to live your life. Sorry for the banter... Will's gonna have a conniption when he comes back.

Will> this thread is a disaster I'm going to have make a new one

[millpondwx]

The 18z GFS ENS also show a colder look at 500mb with less ridging over the Plains. You can see that heights over the NE/OK border on the OP 18z are around 570dm whereas the ENS shows 558dm at Day 7.

Unfortunately that ridge needs to retrograde to the west to allow for any shortwaves to amplify as they come east. The way the pattern is depicted now by both the GFS and Euro, the baroclinic zone gets shunted way out to see, so any cyclogenesis that happens will be for the fishes. We need a shortwave to amplify strongly to back the flow up the coast. Maybe that happens closer to 12/10 or beyond? Until then, a retro solution is the only way to get snow in here. The retro solution should be great for the northern ski resorts but would have to be quite epic to get snow down to Mass.

[ski MRG]

It's very rare for a storm to retrograde as far south as did the February 26th Snowicane...that's just one-in-a-million compared to storms that retrograde back into Maine and the Canadian Maritimes. The early retrograding of that storm warm sectored all of SNE while NYC got hammered.

Not quite, 40" here from Feb 24-28.

[powderfreak]

Been, there done that. Great stuff but still no MRG. I'll give you the guided tour there and you'll jump ship on Stowe.

I look forward to it man... love the single chair. Didn't get there last season but was there a few times the previous year. Last time I was there, we sat at the bar in the basebox listening to music for hours. Great scene in there.

[nzucker]

Unfortunately that ridge needs to retrograde to the west to allow for any shortwaves to amplify as they come east. The way the pattern is depicted now by both the GFS and Euro, the baroclinic zone gets shunted way out to see, so any cyclogenesis that happens will be for the fishes. We need a shortwave to amplify strongly to back the flow up the coast. Maybe that happens closer to 12/10 or beyond? Until then, a retro solution is the only way to get snow in here. The retro solution should be great for the northern ski resorts but would have to be quite epic to get snow down to Mass.

Yes, the strong GoA low is making the flow quite zonal over North America despite the potent -NAO block. It's making it hard for a trough of low pressure to dig anywhere.

I'm not buying the retrograde storm, those types of systems are few and far between.

Not quite, 40" here from Feb 24-28.

Yeah, you were far enough west to avoid most of the damage. Middlebury got hammered in the 2/24 storm with 20" but had all rain in the Snowicane; I know it was a different story for the higher elevations of northern Vermont, however. Logan11's area did particularly well in that period too.

[Mr Torchey]

Yes, the strong GoA low is making the flow quite zonal over North America despite the potent -NAO block. It's making it hard for a trough of low pressure to dig anywhere.

Its going to be like pulling teeth to get any amplification along the east coast with that monster underneath ak, I think our best bet is going to be some sheared out system in the flow sliding underneath long island .......1-3 2-4 inch deal, which if it happens I would gladly take.

[nzucker]

Its going to be like pulling teeth to get any amplification along the east coast with that monster underneath ak, I think our best bet is going to be some sheared out system in the flow sliding underneath long island .......1-3 2-4 inch deal, which if it happens I would gladly take.

Ugh I know...the upcoming pattern is gorgeous with a 3SD NAO block and a huge ridge over northern Alaska pouring the cold into Canada...but that GoA low will not quiet down! Curse of the strong La Niña here, folks. I'd like to see the models pick up on some overrunning scenarios as I think a cold version of a SWFE would be the best way to capitalize on the cold air and fairly zonal jet. If a piece of that ULL near Cali can break off, maybe we could be talking...