Threat Thread

[CoastalWx]

Yeah, the last few runs of the GFS have backed off some on the mega retrograding storm. Still a signal for a s/w emerging from the Plains but suppression looks to be the story on most of the models currently. This is going to be an impossible pattern to forecast until the short-range, however, with the huge -NAO/-AO block as well as that weird closed low off California that seems to be mucking things up on the GFS.

If you look at the individual ensemble members, they are also keying on different s/w's I think. Some just crap out 12/5 and then really develop a strong low around 12/7-12/9. What a disaster to figure out. It may be one of those things where everything kind of looks like crap, then all of the sudden...the 12z or 00z runs develop a formidable low near the East Coast. Timing and determining which s/w will be dominant will be very difficult.

[dryslot]

The retrograde solution is off table for the most part imo. It's either the s/w amplifies enough when it approaches the east coast, or nothing. There does appear to me at least one or two threats after 12/5 so I wouldn't go rafters just yet.

As well it should be, How many over the years have produced a significant snowstorm for the NE, Not many i would presume, I don't think you count on 1 hand how many we have actually had.......

[40/70 Benchmark]

Ha, only H5 or just surface low pressure?

I figure its within 7 days now, so maybe we can talk about some more details, lol.

Heck, Rev Kev has already locked in 3-6".

Like I said, the atmosphere queefs and you'll get your upslope.....but be careful about general proclamations like "looking good" if that is what you are referring to in a sne thread.....no one but MRG cares about that. lol

EDIT: My bad......not qualified as sne in thread title.

[ski MRG]

I concur. Even if we miss a synoptic storm, a closed upper level low overhead allowing some subtle moisture to work into the region and good NW upslope flow. We could be talking long duration snow shower event which adds up over time. Those 2-3" per day for 4 days straight can turn into nice little events in the upslope region.

I haven't been to Stowe in a year or two but I'll get there this year to ski with you. I won't show unless Goat/Front Four are open as that's pretty much it as far as I'm concerned. Things are about to break in a big way.

[dryslot]

It is a hard solution to swallow, but odder things have happened.

The 18z GFS is appealing because on 12/4-5 when that second piece of energy rounds the base of the very negative trough, it seems to set up a pretty decent moisture feed around closed H85 and H7 lows... from the maritime region back into NNE. It also sets up a long-duration NW flow so I think we could squeeze out 3-4 days worth of snow showers from that. The GFS has like 10 consecutive periods of 0.01-0.1 QPF which is a good signal for upslope in this region.

I can see where that type of scenario would benifit you guys like last years did being that far away from the low center and getting upsloped, But here the air off the atlantic is not that cold and would infiltrate the upper levels and we would end up the same way as last year rain.....

[CoastalWx]

As well it should be, How many over the years have produced a significant snowstorm for the NE, Not many i would presume, I don't think you count on 1 hand how many we have actually had.......

Well it's not impossible imo, but I'm not sold on a retro solution for this specific situation. They do happen, and December would be the better month out of the DJF timeframe, for this to happen.

[dryslot]

If you look at the individual ensemble members, they are also keying on different s/w's I think. Some just crap out 12/5 and then really develop a strong low around 12/7-12/9. What a disaster to figure out. It may be one of those things where everything kind of looks like crap, then all of the sudden...the 12z or 00z runs develop a formidable low near the East Coast. Timing and determining which s/w will be dominant will be very difficult.

I think at this point that what you have stated is going to be more of a plasible solution given the state of the pattern right now, And it will probably be a short window of when it actually shows the outcome of any of the storms that look to be forthcoming....

[dryslot]

Well it's not impossible imo, but I'm not sold on a retro solution for this specific situation. They do happen, and December would be the better month out of the DJF timeframe, for this to happen.

Well the chances would be for more of a rain or icestorm here in that scenario i would think.....

[powderfreak]

Like I said, the atmosphere queefs and you'll get your upslope.....but be careful about general proclamations like "looking good" if that is what you are referring to in a sne thread.....no one but MRG cares about that. lol

EDIT: My bad......not qualified as sne in thread title.

Yeah sorry, I'll be more specific next time. Regional forum so something that's good for you, may not be for me and vice versa. But as we've seen in the past, there can be civil wars even within SNE-specific threads... much less all-of-New England threads, haha.

I do try to pay attention to what the exact focus of each thread is... but I know us NNE'ers appreciate being included in these threads.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah sorry, I'll be more specific next time. Regional forum so something that's good for you, may not be for me and vice versa. But as we've seen in the past, there can be civil wars even within SNE-specific threads... much less all-of-New England threads, haha.

I do try to pay attention to what the exact focus of each thread is... but I know us NNE'ers appreciate being included in these threads.

Sure...

[powderfreak]

I haven't been to Stowe in a year or two but I'll get there this year to ski with you. I won't show unless Goat/Front Four are open as that's pretty much it as far as I'm concerned. Things are about to break in a big way.

Nahh dude, forget if Ski Patrol has them closed... we'll ski 'em anyway. This place has very relaxed closure policies.

But the Front Four isn't where its at... we will go out-of-bounds and ski the Mansfield backcountry... you'll never go back to MRG after skiing some of the lines, chutes, bowls, and snowfields that I'll show ya

[CoastalWx]

Yeah sorry, I'll be more specific next time. Regional forum so something that's good for you, may not be for me and vice versa. But as we've seen in the past, there can be civil wars even within SNE-specific threads... much less all-of-New England threads, haha.

I do try to pay attention to what the exact focus of each thread is... but I know us NNE'ers appreciate being included in these threads.

We love NNE'ers. 100 miles only separates us.

[CoastalWx]

Well the chances would be for more of a rain or icestorm here in that scenario i would think.....

In a retro storm?? It's usually cstl rain vs interior snow. Everything is usually wrapped up or occluded, so most of the time, the mid levels are "cool". I'm referring to December.

[nzucker]

It's very interesting to look at this pattern. You can see that higher heights over the AK N. Slope and the strong -NAO are forcing the polar vortex back into AK, allowing some cold air to fill in to our north. We've got a trough in the east due to the Greenland block, but that ULL near California is driving ridging across most of the CONUS and making it more difficult to amplify a s/w far enough south for a storm. This is what the 18z GFS shows at 132 hours:

By Day 7, there's a strong Rex block over the Yukon and Alaska, combining with the -NAO to increase our cold air source. However we're barely holding onto the trough, as the sub-tropical ridge is powerful in such a potent Niña. It's trying to torch the CONUS despite a fairly -EPO/-NAO look:

[Damage In Tolland]

Big dog all over it for us

The Big Dog shows the upcoming mid week storm and then the pattern after that should lead to snow from the central plains to the mid and north atlantic states next weekend or early the following week, with a stronger system behind it later next week.

[powderfreak]

I can see where that type of scenario would benifit you guys like last years did being that far away from the low center and getting upsloped, But here the air off the atlantic is not that cold and would infiltrate the upper levels and we would end up the same way as last year rain.....

Depends on what storm you are talking about... we got a lot of heavy rain in that late Feb storm that dumped 26" in Dobbs Ferry, NY. If you are talking about the January 2-3 storm where BTV got 34" then yes you may have a point, haha.

We got equally as screwed on the strong easterly flow aloft during late Feb and March.

[DomNH]

Big dog all over it for us

The Big Dog shows the upcoming mid week storm and then the pattern after that should lead to snow from the central plains to the mid and north atlantic states next weekend or early the following week, with a stronger system behind it later next week.

That's borderline incoherent.

[Damage In Tolland]

That's borderline incoherent.

Huh?

[dryslot]

In a retro storm?? It's usually cstl rain vs interior snow. Everything is usually wrapped up or occluded, so most of the time, the mid levels are "cool". I'm referring to December.

Yes, And i got rain in the last retro storm in Jan and that is what i am referring to when i say here......

[nzucker]

Depends on what storm you are talking about... we got a lot of heavy rain in that late Feb storm that dumped 26" in Dobbs Ferry, NY. If you are talking about the January 2-3 storm where BTV got 34" then yes you may have a point, haha.

We got equally as screwed on the strong easterly flow aloft during late Feb and March.

It's very rare for a storm to retrograde as far south as did the February 26th Snowicane...that's just one-in-a-million compared to storms that retrograde back into Maine and the Canadian Maritimes. The early retrograding of that storm warm sectored all of SNE while NYC got hammered.

[DomNH]

Huh?

It's hard to tell whether he likes the patten after the 12/5 storm for snow or the 12/5 storm itself.

[Damage In Tolland]

Don't forget we just retrograded a storm south of Cape Cod from the maritimes earlier this month which gave interior snow and coast and parts of NNE rain..It can happen in these blocking regimes

[CoastalWx]

It's very interesting to look at this pattern. You can see that higher heights over the AK N. Slope and the strong -NAO are forcing the polar vortex back into AK, allowing some cold air to fill in to our north. We've got a trough in the east due to the Greenland block, but that ULL near California is driving ridging across most of the CONUS and making it more difficult to amplify a s/w far enough south for a storm. This is what the 18z GFS shows at 132 hours:

By Day 7, there's a strong Rex block over the Yukon and Alaska, combining with the -NAO to increase our cold air source. However we're barely holding onto the trough, as the sub-tropical ridge is powerful in such a potent Niña. It's trying to torch the CONUS despite a fairly -EPO/-NAO look:

On the D7 panel, it's only the ctrl and srn Plains that are warm, and that warmth is squashed south in later panels. That trough coming into CA is screwing with the se ridge.

[dryslot]

Depends on what storm you are talking about... we got a lot of heavy rain in that late Feb storm that dumped 26" in Dobbs Ferry, NY. If you are talking about the January 2-3 storm where BTV got 34" then yes you may have a point, haha.

We got equally as screwed on the strong easterly flow aloft during late Feb and March.

Mid Jan retro storm, I think you guys did quite well if my old memory serves me.....

[powderfreak]

By Day 7, there's a strong Rex block over the Yukon and Alaska, combining with the -NAO to increase our cold air source. However we're barely holding onto the trough, as the sub-tropical ridge is powerful in such a potent Niña. It's trying to torch the CONUS despite a fairly -EPO/-NAO look:

Great example of how the nation on a whole can torch while we remain cool/cold here in New England. That looks warm over the mid-section of the nation but you can tell based on the the deep negative trough over NE and the -NAO, that the ridge in the middle of the country would dampen out as it comes eastward.

Looks like a gradient pattern starting up but generally cooler in New England relative to normal, than the rest of the nation.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Big dog all over it for us

The Big Dog shows the upcoming mid week storm and then the pattern after that should lead to snow from the central plains to the mid and north atlantic states next weekend or early the following week, with a stronger system behind it later next week.

So he's talking Dec 6th and beyond. The Dec 4-5 retrograde storm is gone in his mind.

[DomNH]

Mid Jan retro storm, I think you guys did quite well if my old memory serves me.....

Didn't BTV get like 40'' over a couple days during that?

[powderfreak]

On the D7 panel, it's only the ctrl and srn Plains that are warm, and that warmth is squashed south in later panels. That trough coming into CA is screwing with the se ridge.

I had the same reaction when looking at that.

[CoastalWx]

Yes, And i got rain in the last reto storm in Jan and that is what i am referring to when i say here......

Yeah you don't really see much ice in retro storms. That's what I meant. Those storms don't produce much sleet or zr.

[Damage In Tolland]

So he's talking Dec 6th and beyond. The Dec 4-5 retrograde storm is gone in his mind.

Next weekend or early following week is Dec 5th/6th