Threat Thread

[OKpowdah]

I think we need a negative thread start, like the tropical threads this summer. Reverse psychology FTW

[snowNH]

Wow GFS looks interesting at hour 192.... Monster low retrograding into NE. Then a four Low Monster storm in the PAC NW. Then a S/W low squeezed in the middle. Very interesting. Any Mets thoughts on that?

[Ginx snewx]

In simply amazing rapidity the AO has dropped precipitously to a near -4 level. The NAO has tanked along side it, not any surprise since the correlation is basically linear. The levels moderate as coastal development occurs nearby. I will agree with the the non suppressed out come if a SW develops in the time frame of teleconnection modality rise. What is very encouraging is the levels again fall then rise as the next , what appears to me to be a major moisture loaded system, develops. Should be a fun two weeks starting Thursday. Chuck um high chuck um wide chuck um far chuck a weenie in your eye. FIYAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH

Euro Ens show the modulation and timing well. Game on.

[ORH_wxman]

The north atlantic blocking situation is making this whole Dec 5th threat become a completely crazy situation for model guidance...you essentially have the departing Dec 1-2 storm hanging up to the northeast and then the Dec 4-5 shortwave runs into it and gets deamplified and possibly forces a retrograding scenario....then you have another wave coming out of the SW US bhind that one fairly quickly, but its impossible to tell how it will interact with those previous systems.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The north atlantic blocking situation is making this whole Dec 5th threat become a completely crazy situation for model guidance...you essentially have the departing Dec 1-2 storm hanging up to the northeast and then the Dec 4-5 shortwave runs into it and gets deamplified and possibly forces a retrograding scenario....then you have another wave coming out of the SW US bhind that one fairly quickly, but its impossible to tell how it will interact with those previous systems.

That awful cutter could ruin the Dec 5 potential.

[dryslot]

The north atlantic blocking situation is making this whole Dec 5th threat become a completely crazy situation for model guidance...you essentially have the departing Dec 1-2 storm hanging up to the northeast and then the Dec 4-5 shortwave runs into it and gets deamplified and possibly forces a retrograding scenario....then you have another wave coming out of the SW US bhind that one fairly quickly, but its impossible to tell how it will interact with those previous systems.

I have no faith in any retrograding feature and would not want to rely on that scenario playing out to get snow, This pattern is proving to be quite complex and guidance is having a hard time coming around to sensible solutions in the interim.................

[H2Otown_WX]

I have no faith in any retrograding feature and would not want to rely on that scenario playing out to get snow, This pattern is proving to be quite complex and guidance is having a hard time coming around to sensible solutions in the interim.................

Gotta go with Dr. No until further notice..

[ski MRG]

I have no faith in any retrograding feature and would not want to rely on that scenario playing out to get snow, This pattern is proving to be quite complex and guidance is having a hard time coming around to sensible solutions in the interim.................

I would put little faith in any model depiction outside the 3-5 day range at this point whether it be good or bad. Maybe some one can post verification scores for the last month or so but it seems to me that the models have been performing rather poorly as of late. The cool thing about this whole set-up is a wide range of outcomes are totally possible, from horrible to epic. In the end I think many of us will be quite satisfied by mid Dec.

[dryslot]

I would put little faith in any model depiction outside the 3-5 day range at this point whether it be good or bad. Maybe some one can post verification scores for the last month or so but it seems to me that the models have been performing rather poorly as of late. The cool thing about this whole set-up is a wide range of outcomes are totally possible, from horrible to epic. In the end I think many of us will be quite satisfied by mid Dec.

I think they have been poor in the mid range and long range as of late......

[dryslot]

Gotta go with Dr. No until further notice..

That would be my model of choice for sure, GFS has sucked and well we all know about the Nam.....

[40/70 Benchmark]

I have no faith in any retrograding feature and would not want to rely on that scenario playing out to get snow, This pattern is proving to be quite complex and guidance is having a hard time coming around to sensible solutions in the interim.................

Agreed.

[CoastalWx]

The retrograde solution is off table for the most part imo. It's either the s/w amplifies enough when it approaches the east coast, or nothing. There does appear to me at least one or two threats after 12/5 so I wouldn't go rafters just yet.

[Ginx snewx]

I have no faith in any retrograding feature and would not want to rely on that scenario playing out to get snow, This pattern is proving to be quite complex and guidance is having a hard time coming around to sensible solutions in the interim.................

I could care less how it evolves, who cares?, the retro storm of last year was some of you guys best storm. Why does it scare you? I mean 69 was a retro right?

[powderfreak]

I would put little faith in any model depiction outside the 3-5 day range at this point whether it be good or bad. Maybe some one can post verification scores for the last month or so but it seems to me that the models have been performing rather poorly as of late. The cool thing about this whole set-up is a wide range of outcomes are totally possible, from horrible to epic. In the end I think many of us will be quite satisfied by mid Dec.

Pete you need to just stick this in your signature. I think all of your posts these days end with we will all be satisfied by the end of the month. Now its by the middle of the month. We can only hope!

I'm actually surprised this retrograding solution is still on the table. I'm starting to think it may happen in some form or another... though I doubt it is to the extent that most of these runs have been showing, I could see some areas of light snow and flurries back in as another storm slides of the mid-Atlantic coast.

[powderfreak]

That would be my model of choice for sure, GFS has sucked and well we all know about the Nam.....

I would kill for a threat that even gets within the NAM's time frame/range.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The retrograde solution is off table for the most part imo. It's either the s/w amplifies enough when it approaches the east coast, or nothing. There does appear to me at least one or two threats after 12/5 so I wouldn't go rafters just yet.

I could care less how it evolves, who cares?, the retro storm of last year was some of you guys best storm. Why does it scare you? I mean 69 was a retro right?

Because more often than not the storm won't realize its potential in that manner and this will be the case in this instance, as we thought.

[Ginx snewx]

Because more often than not the storm won't realize its potential in that manner and this will be the case in this instance, as we thought.

Huh? As we thought? LOL who knows what the final evolution will be at day six, seven? Mega blocking easing up just in time?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Huh? As we thought? LOL who knows what the final evolution will be at day six, seven? Mega blocking easing up just in time?

Odds are never in favor of receiving a big hit from a retrograding system; is there a chance, sure.......but I'll bet against it.

[ski MRG]

Pete you need to just stick this in your signature. I think all of your posts these days end with we will all be satisfied by the end of the month. Now its by the middle of the month. We can only hope!

I'm actually surprised this retrograding solution is still on the table. I'm starting to think it may happen in some form or another... though I doubt it is to the extent that most of these runs have been showing, I could see some areas of light snow and flurries back in as another storm slides of the mid-Atlantic coast.

What can I say, I think things are looking better and better.

[powderfreak]

Because more often than not the storm won't realize its potential in that manner and this will be the case in this instance, as we thought.

It is a hard solution to swallow, but odder things have happened.

The 18z GFS is appealing because on 12/4-5 when that second piece of energy rounds the base of the very negative trough, it seems to set up a pretty decent moisture feed around closed H85 and H7 lows... from the maritime region back into NNE. It also sets up a long-duration NW flow so I think we could squeeze out 3-4 days worth of snow showers from that. The GFS has like 10 consecutive periods of 0.01-0.1 QPF which is a good signal for upslope in this region.

[Ginx snewx]

Odds are never in favor of receiving a big hit from a retrograding system; is there a chance, sure.......but I'll bet against it.

Agree but like I said I could careless on how it evolves.

[CoastalWx]

It is a hard solution to swallow, but odder things have happened.

The 18z GFS is appealing because on 12/4-5 when that second piece of energy rounds the base of the very negative trough, it seems to set up a pretty decent moisture feed around closed H85 and H7 lows... from the maritime region back into NNE. It also sets up a long-duration NW flow so I think we could squeeze out 3-4 days worth of snow showers from that. The GFS has like 10 consecutive periods of 0.01-0.1 QPF which is a good signal for upslope in this region.

Yeah I could def see prolonged upslope on nw flow.

[nzucker]

The retrograde solution is off table for the most part imo. It's either the s/w amplifies enough when it approaches the east coast, or nothing. There does appear to me at least one or two threats after 12/5 so I wouldn't go rafters just yet.

Yeah, the last few runs of the GFS have backed off some on the mega retrograding storm. Still a signal for a s/w emerging from the Plains but suppression looks to be the story on most of the models currently. This is going to be an impossible pattern to forecast until the short-range, however, with the huge -NAO/-AO block as well as that weird closed low off California that seems to be mucking things up on the GFS.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It is a hard solution to swallow, but odder things have happened.

The 18z GFS is appealing because on 12/4-5 when that second piece of energy rounds the base of the very negative trough, it seems to set up a pretty decent moisture feed around closed H85 and H7 lows... from the maritime region back into NNE. It also sets up a long-duration NW flow so I think we could squeeze out 3-4 days worth of snow showers from that. The GFS has like 10 consecutive periods of 0.01-0.1 QPF which is a good signal for upslope in this region.

I don't care to analyze the H7 and H8 lows on a day 6 18z GFS prog.

Uslope potential in the mts is different....usually is a good bet.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I just wanted to get you into the discussion since you were lurking

ah OK. gotcha.

i was wondering what you were reading.

i wouldn't rule suppression out, but at the same time wouldn't be hard to envision the bc zone not being very far offshore. would only take that and slightly different timing/spacing between the two features in question to make for a solution

[40/70 Benchmark]

Agree but like I said I could careless on how it evolves.

Yea, I hear ya....as long as it snows, but the point is that if we are going to get an event, then it likely won't be due to the retrogression of the SW.....it will have to dig signifcantly deeper than presently progged.

[powderfreak]

What can I say, I think things are looking better and better.

I concur. Even if we miss a synoptic storm, a closed upper level low overhead allowing some subtle moisture to work into the region and good NW upslope flow. We could be talking long duration snow shower event which adds up over time. Those 2-3" per day for 4 days straight can turn into nice little events in the upslope region.

[dryslot]

I could care less how it evolves, who cares?, the retro storm of last year was some of you guys best storm. Why does it scare you? I mean 69 was a retro right?

Last years retro storm sucked up here with stale maritime air being pumped in from the ENE here we got rain while you guys in Mass and Ct were getting snow, The storm in 69 was not a retro storm but a low that stalled in the gulf of maine and meandered for 3 days giving us 36" of snow....

[powderfreak]

I don't care to analyze the H7 and H8 lows on a day 6 18z GFS prog.

Uslope potential in the mts is different....usually is a good bet.

Ha, only H5 or just surface low pressure?

I figure its within 7 days now, so maybe we can talk about some more details, lol.

Heck, Rev Kev has already locked in 3-6".

[dryslot]

I would kill for a threat that even gets within the NAM's time frame/range.

I would to but it would have to be within 3 days.......lol