Threat Thread

[CT Rain]

Yes...I think a more straight forward Miller B development is more likely than that solution. But given the pattern and analogs, I don't think a retrograde solution can be discounted. Dec 6, 1981 has been on the analog map for quite awhile. But that said, its still hard to take a retrograde solution that hits YBY seriously until its much closer in.

Yeah, agreed. I'd say we probably have an ok shot at seeing something wintry Sun-Tue... details to be determined

[Tropopause_Fold]

congratulations to the GFS for finally finding the s/w in question and getting the timing in order.

[CoastalWx]

congratulations to the GFS for finally finding the s/w in question and getting the timing in order.

Still some huge differences between the euro and gfs, especially out west with the gfs completely flat out there.

[CoastalWx]

Actually, things look better at hr 144.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Still some huge differences between the euro and gfs, especially out west with the gfs completely flat out there.

yeah it's still beating it to pieces too...it just looked a bit more like it was in the euro/cmc s/w camp early on. i didn't even look at the 18z so i don't know if this is a move toward the euro or not.

[Tropopause_Fold]

yeah it's still going to just make 1 system instead of 2

[earthlight]

Actually, things look better at hr 144.

156-162 are really interesting..it's mighty close but ultimately that confluence hung around too long owing to that big ULL.

[ORH_wxman]

yeah it's still beating it to pieces too...it just looked a bit more like it was in the euro/cmc s/w camp early on. i didn't even look at the 18z so i don't know if this is a move toward the euro or not.

Its definitely a move toward the Euro, but it still has some critical differences which isn't surprising given we are still over 6 days out.

[CoastalWx]

It's a little further south with both the block to our ne, and the s/w over the MIdwest. Not too far off from the 12z depiction.

[earthlight]

Lol, looks like a piece of polar energy is phasing in at 171 hrs.

[Tropopause_Fold]

lol...sad how we are glued to a day 6-9 prog.

[Bostonseminole]

lol...sad how we are glued to a day 6-9 prog.

no kidding, like I said everything seems to be 180 hrs away everyday

[ORH_wxman]

This pattern looks like a weak El Nino.

[CoastalWx]

LOL, the MA s/w, Maine s/w, and Michigan s/w all gang up for one big cluster-f.

[Tropopause_Fold]

man, the GFS loves 12/7-8. it's been banging the drum on that date for days and days.

[CoastalWx]

This pattern looks like a weak El Nino.

With even some cool anomalies coming up for the southeast.

[CoastalWx]

man, the GFS loves 12/7-8. it's been banging the drum on that date for days and days.

Bomb on this run.

[ORH_wxman]

Congrats BOS and Cape Cod and SE NH and S ME.

[Organizing Low]

LOL, the MA s/w, Maine s/w, and Michigan s/w all gang up for one big cluster-f.

see this is the analysis i come here for

[A-L-E-X]

This pattern looks like a weak El Nino.

Maybe transitioning from a strong nino to a strong nina is causing some sort of lag effect in the atmosphere.

[ORH_wxman]

Its actually not all that different than the Euro for the end result up in New England, it just backs it in a little further north than the Euro. Eventually it hammers N NH and N VT and S Canada.

Its also a solid 24-36 hours slower than the Euro.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Bomb on this run.

LOL. how many days ago was it (sometime last week i know) that the GFS started showing the monster bomb on 12/8. i think it was at like 360 hours out or something crazy like that.

[CoastalWx]

It's like you can almost see both solutions happening. I could very well see the first storm whiff and the second storm come up the coast, or the first storm hits us like the euro..and maybe the follow up storm hits or at least brushes sne. I'm just not confident on how the gfs is resolving the s/w in question out west.

[weatherwiz]

This pattern looks like a weak El Nino.

That definitely isn't a bad thing!

[ORH_wxman]

The CONUS pattern after the storm couldn't be more different than its 18z run...we are in the ice box the rest of the run.

[skierinvermont]

If I am understanding DT correctly in the chat room he is saying that this is not actually the same s/w as the Euro.. the GFS crushes the Euro storm into supression and develops storm #3. I am having a hard time seeing that because I can't see the Euro storm's s/w on the GFS because it is so sheared out.

[Tropopause_Fold]

It's like you can almost see both solutions happening. I could very well see the first storm whiff and the second storm come up the coast, or the first storm hits us like the euro..and maybe the follow up storm hits or at least brushes sne. I'm just not confident on how the gfs is resolving the s/w in question out west.

yeah it's funny you say that because i was thinking that neither op. situation seems too far fetched until right around 200 hours or so when both models go bonkers with the troughing and lows retrograding all over the place.

[earthlight]

Its actually not all that different than the Euro for the end result up in New England, it just backs it in a little further north than the Euro. Eventually it hammers N NH and N VT and S Canada.

Its also a solid 24-36 hours slower than the Euro.

It's different with it's handling of the situation, though, but either one is plausible. The Euro bombs the first shortwave and then amplifies it at the surface...the GFS is slower because it's stronger with the block and the shortwave is weaker. Things really go bonkers once the block lifts north and then the polar shortwave actually got involved which sent things through the roof.

Either way, this is encouraging..the pattern is all blocked up and things are looking really interesting if you ask me.

[ORH_wxman]

It's different with it's handling of the situation, though, but either one is plausible. The Euro bombs the first shortwave and then amplifies it at the surface...the GFS is slower because it's stronger with the block and the shortwave is weaker. Things really go bonkers once the block lifts north and then the polar shortwave actually got involved which sent things through the roof.

Either way, this is encouraging..the pattern is all blocked up and things are looking really interesting if you ask me.

Yeah thats why I said "the end result"...it uses a different shortwave to accomplish the solution, but its a very similar storm for the final result up here.

But down in DCA its nothing like the Euro because the Euro s/w is compressed into nothing.

All the GFS does is confirm that it likes the blocking idea enough to retrograde a storm like th eEuro...no matter which shortwave is involved.

[Tropopause_Fold]

It's different with it's handling of the situation, though, but either one is plausible. The Euro bombs the first shortwave and then amplifies it at the surface...the GFS is slower because it's stronger with the block and the shortwave is weaker. Things really go bonkers once the block lifts north and then the polar shortwave actually got involved which sent things through the roof.

Either way, this is encouraging..the pattern is all blocked up and things are looking really interesting if you ask me.

agree...but will be interesting to see if it can actually deliver something. tons of potential here but in some respects i'd rather just see a sharp temp gradient stretched sw to ne across the conus and get a nice traditional nina SWFE.