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Threat Thread

ski MRG

By ski MRG,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

feel pretty good about it at this point. we'll see how it goes (wish we could fast forward a bit) but i do like the look right now. certainly appears that a nice dump of cold is coming too.

Yeah, no real complaints this far out. It looks cold following it. The EC ensemble precip probs look good for the Cape, and actually are relatively high being so far out, for the 9th. I'd rather have the models show a solution like what we're seeing at this time frame.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

The Euro looks like it will be quite cold in the long-range with lots of potential for snow threats. Euro almost looks perfect really. Nice ridging building into the west coast well up into western Canada and into the arctic and with a nice -NAO block and some pretty decent cold built up it just starts to pipeline down here into the Northeast.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Is this the new thread for generalized Meteorological discussion, debate and insults ?

Model of choice last 12 hours: ECMWF ....Although I give props to the GFS for at least attempting to back off on that Day After Tomorrow deal.

Everything I said in that long-winded diatribe yesterday morning ...upon further review could have been summed up with one sentence:

"The ECM's idea of just having a long wave axis versus a wound up historical 5 day terror like the GFS was and is the physically more plausible solution"

...I guess the point of all that was to discuss and describe the theoretical reasoning why...

That said, the 00z Euro does 2 things that I like (...the 2nd on that list is a dubious liking...), and that is 1), it indeed spares us the absurdness of those previous GFS delusions of historic grandeur, but 2, takes you to school and exemplifies (teaches) us first hand (another discussion that I leveled last week regarding...) why -NAO's do not necessarily meaning snow.

Read it and weep ladies - the ECM suppresses the storm track too far SE for us to cash in on a certain to be cold pattern, by hooking identifiably modeled systems in that flow off shore. That is 'too much -NAO' incarnate and a direct demonstration of why the -NAO mode its self is often a snow lovers duped over false dream. In fact, it is akin to being platonically in obsessive love and physical desire for the same b**ch for 7 years ...only to have her ...oh, wait, sorry - different story.

Anyway, the better hope of bigger storm in this will be when the NAO relaxes - if and when. Now, this is by no means a personal declaration that it won't storm, so please don't wallow in freakish misery for having no hope or sense of internalized merriment and transcendent mirth - grousing will only anger the NAO beast and then it will really lube up the torture rod. Probably some 12 days from now there will be a storm as an estimate, but I suspect the NAO will be in a pulse relaxation interval then and the medium will respond to that indigestion by belching out synoptic scale p-type migraine that thankfully being above the 40th parallel we'll be sitting pretty for.

What you have to do is do like I, embrace the boring cold... Here, I am about to set out for 18 holes of Disk Golf with my buddy T-Bone in 24F cold... The upshot will seeing the ponds icing over - I'm just steeped enough in nerdliness to want to monitor minutia like that ...

Later.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

Yeah, no real complaints this far out. It looks cold following it. The EC ensemble precip probs look good for the Cape, and actually are relatively high being so far out, for the 9th. I'd rather have the models show a solution like what we're seeing at this time frame.

interesting turn of events given the suicide watch that was issued 4 days ago.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

Is this the new thread for generalized Meteorological discussion, debate and insults ?

Model of choice last 12 hours: ECMWF ....Although I give props to the GFS for at least attempting to back off on that Day After Tomorrow deal.

Everything I said in that long-winded diatribe yesterday morning ...upon further review could have been summed up with one sentence:

"The ECM's idea of just having a long wave axis versus a wound up historical 5 day terror like the GFS was and is the physically more plausible solution"

...I guess the point of all that was to discuss and describe the theoretical reasoning why...

That said, the 00z Euro does 2 things that I like (...the 2nd on that list is a dubious liking...), and that is 1), it indeed spares us the absurdness of those previous GFS delusions of historic grandeur, but 2, takes you to school and teaches you first hand another discussion that I leveled last week regarding -NAO's not necessarily meaning snow.

Read it and weep ladies - the ECM suppresses the storm track too far SE for us to cash in on a certain to be cold pattern, by hooking identifiably modeled system in that flow off shore. That is 'too much -NAO' incarnate and a direct demonstration of why the -NAO mode its self is a snow lovers duped over false dream. In fact, it is akin to being platonically in obsessive love and physical desire for the same b**ch for 7 years ...only to have her ...oh, wait, sorry - different story.

Anyway, the better hope of bigger storm in this will be when the NAO relaxes - if and when. Now, this is by no means a personal declaration that it won't storm, so please don't wallow in freakish misery for having no hope or sense of internalized merriment and transcendent mirth - grousing will only anger the NAO beast and then it will really lube up the torture rod. Probably some 12 days from now there will be a storm as an estimate, but I suspect the NAO will be in a pulse relaxation interval then and the medium will respond to that indigestion by belching out synoptic scale p-type migraine that thankfully being above the 40th parallel we'll be sitting pretty for.

What you have to do is do like I, embrace the boring cold... Here, I am about to set out for 18 holes of Disk Golf with my buddy T-Bone in 24F cold... The upshot will seeing the ponds icing over - I'm just steeped enough in nerdliness to want to monitor minutia like that ...

Later.

:weenie: of the year nomination. probably honorable mention behind cpickles. LOL.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Is this the new thread for generalized Meteorological discussion, debate and insults ?

Model of choice last 12 hours: ECMWF ....Although I give props to the GFS for at least attempting to back off on that Day After Tomorrow deal.

Everything I said in that long-winded diatribe yesterday morning ...upon further review could have been summed up with one sentence:

"The ECM's idea of just having a long wave axis versus a wound up historical 5 day terror like the GFS was and is the physically more plausible solution"

...I guess the point of all that was to discuss and describe the theoretical reasoning why...

That said, the 00z Euro does 2 things that I like (...the 2nd on that list is a dubious liking...), and that is 1), it indeed spares us the absurdness of those previous GFS delusions of historic grandeur, but 2, takes you to school and exemplifies (teaches) us first hand (another discussion that I leveled last week regarding...) why -NAO's do not necessarily meaning snow.

Read it and weep ladies - the ECM suppresses the storm track too far SE for us to cash in on a certain to be cold pattern, by hooking identifiably modeled system in that flow off shore. That is 'too much -NAO' incarnate and a direct demonstration of why the -NAO mode its self is a snow lovers duped over false dream. In fact, it is akin to being platonically in obsessive love and physical desire for the same b**ch for 7 years ...only to have her ...oh, wait, sorry - different story.

Anyway, the better hope of bigger storm in this will be when the NAO relaxes - if and when. Now, this is by no means a personal declaration that it won't storm, so please don't wallow in freakish misery for having no hope or sense of internalized merriment and transcendent mirth - grousing will only anger the NAO beast and then it will really lube up the torture rod. Probably some 12 days from now there will be a storm as an estimate, but I suspect the NAO will be in a pulse relaxation interval then and the medium will respond to that indigestion by belching out synoptic scale p-type migraine that thankfully being above the 40th parallel we'll be sitting pretty for.

What you have to do is do like I, embrace the boring cold... Here, I am about to set out for 18 holes of Disk Golf with my buddy T-Bone in 24F cold... The upshot will seeing the ponds icing over - I'm just steeped enough in nerdliness to want to monitor minutia like that ...

Later.

The potential storm progged around 12/9 looks to be when the NAO relaxes...following whatever happens on the 5th. While I agree it can be too much of a good thing sometimes, it is doing its job to prevent low pressure riding through Buffalo. With the continuous troughing that has happened and may continue to happen over the southwest, I'll take that block to our northeast. There will always be lows in the winter that move south of sne, during the winter.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Is this the new thread for generalized Meteorological discussion, debate and insults ?

Model of choice last 12 hours: ECMWF ....Although I give props to the GFS for at least attempting to back off on that Day After Tomorrow deal.

Everything I said in that long-winded diatribe yesterday morning ...upon further review could have been summed up with one sentence:

"The ECM's idea of just having a long wave axis versus a wound up historical 5 day terror like the GFS was and is the physically more plausible solution"

...I guess the point of all that was to discuss and describe the theoretical reasoning why...

That said, the 00z Euro does 2 things that I like (...the 2nd on that list is a dubious liking...), and that is 1), it indeed spares us the absurdness of those previous GFS delusions of historic grandeur, but 2, takes you to school and exemplifies (teaches) us first hand (another discussion that I leveled last week regarding...) why -NAO's do not necessarily meaning snow.

Read it and weep ladies - the ECM suppresses the storm track too far SE for us to cash in on a certain to be cold pattern, by hooking identifiably modeled systems in that flow off shore. That is 'too much -NAO' incarnate and a direct demonstration of why the -NAO mode its self is often a snow lovers duped over false dream. In fact, it is akin to being platonically in obsessive love and physical desire for the same b**ch for 7 years ...only to have her ...oh, wait, sorry - different story.

Anyway, the better hope of bigger storm in this will be when the NAO relaxes - if and when. Now, this is by no means a personal declaration that it won't storm, so please don't wallow in freakish misery for having no hope or sense of internalized merriment and transcendent mirth - grousing will only anger the NAO beast and then it will really lube up the torture rod. Probably some 12 days from now there will be a storm as an estimate, but I suspect the NAO will be in a pulse relaxation interval then and the medium will respond to that indigestion by belching out synoptic scale p-type migraine that thankfully being above the 40th parallel we'll be sitting pretty for.

What you have to do is do like I, embrace the boring cold... Here, I am about to set out for 18 holes of Disk Golf with my buddy T-Bone in 24F cold... The upshot will seeing the ponds icing over - I'm just steeped enough in nerdliness to want to monitor minutia like that ...

Later.

That's one helluva way to ruin a Sunday. :(

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

I wouldn't really worry too much what 6z or 18z models runs show at this stage of the game :lol: As long as 0z/12z runs continue to show positive signals that's all we can be happy about right now and then as we get much closer than start worrying about details and such. Both GFS/Euro show a potentially good pattern and that's all we want to at least see right now.

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Bostonseminole

Bostonseminole

Posted
Posted

I wouldn't really worry too much what 6z or 18z models runs show at this stage of the game :lol: As long as 0z/12z runs continue to show positive signals that's all we can be happy about right now and then as we get much closer than start worrying about details and such. Both GFS/Euro show a potentially good pattern and that's all we want to at least see right now.

I agree, I'm not that worried about it, I've learned my lesson over and over again,

it seems that every threat is 180 hrs away and never moves, is like groundhog day

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

I agree, I'm not that worried about it, I've learned my lesson over and over again,

it seems that every threat is 180 hrs away and never moves, is like groundhog day

:lol:

The models love to have their fun in the long-range.

Sometimes I think when people look into the long-range they look at it for the wrong reasons, like looking for if the model shows a storm and if it shows a perfect track. I think the most important thing to consider is how the pattern looks. If the pattern looks quite favorable than obviously chances are pretty good (not guaranteed) that something may occur. Even if the models aren't sniffing out any storm.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

What you have to do is do like I, embrace the boring cold... Here, I am about to set out for 18 holes of Disk Golf with my buddy T-Bone in 24F cold... The upshot will seeing the ponds icing over - I'm just steeped enough in nerdliness to want to monitor minutia like that ...

Later.

I bet a surprising number of us monitor this type of stuff... haha.

Well, looks like we are going to have to enjoy whatever snow showers, squalls, and flurries we can get because synoptic snow appears to like avoiding New England. Hopefully we can at least nickle and dime our way to some snowfall like we did yesterday.

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