Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,752
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Zero
    Newest Member
    Zero
    Joined

Threat Thread


ski MRG

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 990
  • Created
  • Last Reply

GFS ensemble analogs at D8

500hgtcompsup610.gif

Top 2 are a couple heavy hitters for BOS...one 7.5" storm and one 12"+ storm.

Given its off the GFS ensembles, you still have to take with a grain of salt since the Euro and ensembles seem to be a bit different, but not too far off. The key is that the long wave pattern has produced some good events.

And Dec 2003! :thumbsup:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Careful Jerry Ray will have a WOTY fetish on you now, hopefully that is, takes me out.of his crosshairs.

No, having anything corroborate the Euro's camp is a start.

I never implied you don't know your stuff...just that you tend to hedge toward the optimistic side of things so heavily that it compromises your objectivity a bit....jmho.

I know I'm far from perfect.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS ensemble analogs at D8

Top 2 are a couple heavy hitters for BOS...one 7.5" storm and one 12"+ storm.

Given its off the GFS ensembles, you still have to take with a grain of salt since the Euro and ensembles seem to be a bit different, but not too far off. The key is that the long wave pattern has produced some good events.

It is quite interesting that 1981 keeps popping up

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Over 55" at BTV that month... 120" at Mansfield co-op... 144" at Jay Peak co-op

Nothing like 4.5 feet in the Champlain Valley and 10-12 feet in the mountains over the course of a month.

Sign me up.

942 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2003
        	FLOOD        STAGE    PRESENT      TEMPS        [b]SNOW[/b]
STATION      STAGE  PCPN  /POOL    WEATHER   MAX MIN CUR  NEW [b]TTL[/b] LIQ
JAY PEAK            1.05     	CLEAR        32  12  12 16.0 [b]100[/b]

Here's the Jay Peak cooperative observation from BTV on December 19th, 2003. This station is located at 1,800ft.

100-inch settled snow depth at 1,800ft on December 19th. They had 144" that month.

Try to comprehend that... its only 400 feet above Pete's elevation.

Now think what the 4,000ft summit might have seen...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

re: 2003 December analog. Interesting. I did transit through IAH Saturday. Maybe the wx gods got confused and thought I'd be there next week.

Signs are good now folks regardless of what happens. Decent cold with an active pattern...decent December on the way. My forecast has major relaxation after the beginning of January so all is working out so far.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Check the near miss section of the Kocin book (not the interior near misses, I think in the too far east). It was a big hit for SNE. There was 20" in YBY I think.

Alrighty then.....

942 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2003
            FLOOD        STAGE    PRESENT      TEMPS        [b]SNOW[/b]
STATION      STAGE  PCPN  /POOL    WEATHER   MAX MIN CUR  NEW [b]TTL[/b] LIQ
JAY PEAK            1.05         CLEAR        32  12  12 16.0 [b]100[/b]

Here's the Jay Peak cooperative observation from BTV on December 19th, 2003. This station is located at 1,800ft.

100-inch settled snow depth at 1,800ft on December 19th. They had 144" that month.

Try to comprehend that... its only 400 feet above Pete's elevation.

Now think what the 4,000ft summit might have seen...

WOW!

Paul, Dec 1981 was an ene special.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Alrighty then.....

WOW!

Paul, Dec 1981 was an ene special.

Kind of figured.

As soon as I ever make my way over to the library so I can print out my thing to get a $250 amazon.com gift card I think I'm definitely going to buy me the Kocin books to go along with the big green tornado book.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Alrighty then.....

WOW!

Paul, Dec 1981 was an ene special.

Yeah that's when snow gets a little ridiculous. 8 feet of settled depth is getting a little silly. Although the area around Jay is sparsely populated... there are still some folks that live in the vicinity of that co-op (which is located near the base of the ski area). That's like 1st story of all homes are buried type of stuff.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS ensemble analogs at D8

500hgtcompsup610.gif

Top 2 are a couple heavy hitters for BOS...one 7.5" storm and one 12"+ storm.

Given its off the GFS ensembles, you still have to take with a grain of salt since the Euro and ensembles seem to be a bit different, but not too far off. The key is that the long wave pattern has produced some good events.

Will, I heard you mention a couple of times the 1981 analog, Can you refresh my old memory to what the NE received for snow in that storm, Thanks......

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...