HoarfrostHubb Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Dryslot will take this kind of Retro in a heartbeat, so 69 ish You have mentioned that before with this system... salivating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Dryslot will take this kind of Retro in a heartbeat, so 69 ish Lot of similarity's, I was going to comment on that earlier, You bet i will.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Dryslot will take this kind of Retro in a heartbeat, so 69 ish What did CT get from that? I don't feel like digging it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 What did CT get from that? I don't feel like digging it up Sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 What did CT get from that? I don't feel like digging it up 14".......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Dryslot will take this kind of Retro in a heartbeat, so 69 ish Its more Dec 81-ish in the respect that a lot of Maine might actually change to rain on the 12z Euro...I think SW Maine stays fine...Dryslot in Lewiston may flirt with the rain briefly on that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Hm. The ECM this run is a continuity break - particularly in its handling of the NAO blocking trainwreck in the north Atlantic/Greenland/D. Straight region, which then has profound impact on what can take place further SW in LAT/LON. While it is hard not to be optimistic in this pattern - let's proceed with cautious optimism with that. I'd like to see a minimum of 3 cycles and the inclusion of other guidance types here as well. One aspect I would like to elaborate upon is that as we were discussing earlier surrounding needing the NAO to relax a bit, we actually see the operational ECM doing exactly that now on this run - in a quasi sense it's assisting along the Archambaultian solution less from the PNA modality and more from the NAO suddenly weakening. That sudden weakening beginning D6 and ending D10 lowers the compression on the geopotential medium, which in turn allows the embedded S/W to begin thermodynamically differentiating more proficiently - this results in greater height falls --> feeding back on a deeper strong leading system. Again, the timing of the NAO decay appears instrumental there, and given to this sped up aspect being a continuity shift I strongly urge waiting a minimum of 3 cycles (to mention some agreement). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Hot damn--4"! Glad it's 7 days out. lol 35.8/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 I should change my underwear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Oh god, We are bringing up the 1969 map up again??? Does anyone remember what happened around Feb 25 of 2010? 2' turned into 3 inches of rain and power outages. Lets give this a couple of days before we bring out the 1969 and 1981 maps again please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 I should change my underwear It snowed for 3 days, We were out of school for a week, Local radio stations were handing out these styrofoam fluorescent tennis balls to place on your car antenna so people would know when you pulled up to a 4 way intersection................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Oh god, We are bringing up the 1969 map up again??? Does anyone remember what happened around Feb 25 of 2010? 2' turned into 3 inches of rain and power outages. Lets give this a couple of days before we bring out the 1969 and 1981 maps again please. Lol. I was just going to inquire as to whether the lower amounts along the Maine coast were due to mxiing. 35.4/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Lol. I was just going to inquire as to whether the lower amounts along the Maine coast were due to mxiing. 35.4/25 Yeah, The imediate coast had mixing issues.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Completely OT, but some people might know this quick... Will there be a podcast of the radio show if I cannot make it at 9? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 That's my concern..I don't think this is done trending yet..and the coast may have some issues..this isn't Feb..It's Dec water temps aren't that cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Yeah, The imediate coast had mixing issues.......... Makes me think of my year's on the mid-coast. At least we did a helluva lot better than the coastal plain in Mass typically does. Of course, we didn't get spring until June 15th. 34.9/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Completely OT, but some people might know this quick... Will there be a podcast of the radio show if I cannot make it at 9? I think there is a link somewhere, Bob (Etauntonma) had posted one earlier..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 That's my concern..I don't think this is done trending yet..and the coast may have some issues..this isn't Feb..It's Dec water temps aren't that cold It would......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 That's my concern..I don't think this done trending yet..and the coast may have some issues..this isn't Feb..It's Dec water temps aren't that cold The winds are out of the NW on a retrograde setup. The water temps aren't a concern, the actual mid-level temps would be if it retrograded too far. I actually do not think the retrograde solution is all that likely...I'm thinking a more straight Miller B redevelopment might be the most likely scenario should we get anything of significance at all. There's still a very real chance we whiff on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 That's my concern..I don't think this is done trending yet..and the coast may have some issues..this isn't Feb..It's Dec water temps aren't that cold Might be early to worry/hope about trending west. I think it's worthy to consider John's words about waiting a few cycles to build confidence in this being the system to watch (if I'm reading him correctly). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 That's my concern..I don't think this is done trending yet..and the coast may have some issues..this isn't Feb..It's Dec water temps aren't that cold Well, if that solution were to work out, as long as we are west of the low center and trough extending nw...we are fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 The winds are out of the NW on a retrograde setup. The water temps aren't a concern, the actual mid-level temps would be if it retrograded too far. I actually do not think the retrograde solution is all that likely...I'm thinking a more straight Miller B redevelopment might be the most likely scenario should we get anything of significance at all. There's still a very real chance we whiff on this. I think until Wed/Thurs, we have to assume that this is going to be miss. There's no sense in getting hyped up on a storm this is 7-8 days out. 4-5 days then its time to start taking it seriously. One thing I did read in the "Where we are at and where we are going" thread, is that with this pattern, it is extremely hard for the models to forecast 4-5 days out, not only 7-8 days. Something to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 The winds are out of the NW on a retrograde setup. The water temps aren't a concern, the actual mid-level temps would be if it retrograded too far. I actually do not think the retrograde solution is all that likely...I'm thinking a more straight Miller B redevelopment might be the most likely scenario should we get anything of significance at all. There's still a very real chance we whiff on this. cannot be emphasized enough. this is just like the opposite situation when people start jumping into their bathtubs with their hairdryers on (those of us without hair excluded) because a day 7-10 prog shows a massive rain storm and 55F. take the run with a grain of salt and give it a few days here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 I think until Wed/Thurs, we have to assume that this is going to be miss. There's no sense in getting hyped up on a storm this is 7-8 days out. 4-5 days then its time to start taking it seriously. One thing I did read in the "Where we are at and where we are going" thread, is that with this pattern, it is extremely hard for the models to forecast 4-5 days out, not only 7-8 days. Something to keep in mind. I suppose if there were intra- and inter- model agreement, confidence could build. May the 18z GFS will show it:) 34.6/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 The winds are out of the NW on a retrograde setup. The water temps aren't a concern, the actual mid-level temps would be if it retrograded too far. I actually do not think the retrograde solution is all that likely...I'm thinking a more straight Miller B redevelopment might be the most likely scenario should we get anything of significance at all. There's still a very real chance we whiff on this. Well until the Euro today I was thinking this would just be a Clipper with 3-6 north of the path..I still don't buy the retro either. But if it was a miller B coast would again have issues this early..at least until it bombed out Either way we are gonna get snow out of this..Just need to figure out exactly what setup..I'm leaning towards the clipper idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 cannot be emphasized enough. this is just like the opposite situation when people start jumping into their bathtubs with their hairdryers on (those of us without hair excluded) because a day 7-10 prog shows a massive rain storm and 55F. take the run with a grain of salt and give it a few days here. LOL, you know people will remember this statement, and then forget about it when the 18z finishes in about 40 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 I suppose if there were intra- and inter- model agreement, confidence could build. May the 18z GFS will show it:) 34.6/25 Its almost a guarantee the 18z GFS will show a HECS. Then everyone will get hyped. Then the 00z GFS shows no snow. That's how it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Well until the Euro today I was thinking this would just be a Clipper with 3-6 north of the path..I still don't buy the retro either. But if it was a miller B coast would again have issues this early..at least until it bombed out Either way we are gonna get snow out of this..Just need to figure out exactly what setup..I'm leaning towards the clipper idea I'm not sold on the retro either, but if this were to happen, I could see this head ne and then perhaps turn more north with time. That would probably be better for the coast, because winds would have a more northerly component. it also depends on what 950-850 temps are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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