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Threat Thread

ski MRG

By ski MRG,
in New England

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Verbatim, even the euro ensembles would probably give se mass/Cape some snow. Pretty good run. It also wants to do something with a follow up low coming from the GOM, but verbatim there is no low. The signal is there, however.

Overall its a good trend, Storm amplyfys sooner and trends more north and west lets hope it continues at 00z tonight but that is a pretty good jump from 00z last night....

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

Not a bad euro ensemble run. I think we might see a milder period perhaps...maybe the 11-13th or so? Then, another cold shot possibly afterwards.

Agreed...I think HM and others have highlighted the potential for a brief break-down of the pattern in mid-December, but I think it will be shortly followed by a reload given that there's still a signal for a -AO and probably a good +PNA. The GoA looks miserable though with a monster low just spinning around there for weeks on end.

Why is Zuckerman and others flailing themselves off bridges? Euro looks goo thru day 10 as we tap another shot of cold air day 10 and beyond

I'm not flailing off bridges...this is an awesome run with the potential for a Miller B snowstorm that jackpots I-95 due to the massive -NAO block, and then a potential Gulf Low that hits the Deep South and attempts to come up the coast itself. Could be a very interesting period ahead of us given that we have this monster NAO/AO block, and the Pacific side actually looks serviceable since there's a bit of a ridge over Northern AK despite the GoA low, meaning we get some cold air injected into Canada.

All I'm saying is there's a mild few days on tap at Day 10 on the ECM. Of course, we've got another huge -AO developing at Day 10 with the ridge over the West starting to retrograde and probably bringing lower heights into eastern Canada. The torch wouldn't last but it might be warm for a few days and melt whatever snowpack has developed. It's nothing terrible though as the ridge poking into Kamchatka/Bering Strait is launching a good -AO block and we should be looking at a +PNA after that.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Euro Freebies for the archives

I want the next frame.... man that thing is backing in. I thought we'd miss out on synoptic snow and only see upslope, but that looks pretty good in NNE as it moves SE to NW. I bet the next frame looks pretty, too.

Spreads precip pretty far west once you get up north.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

Its a screw job for far W MA just like 12/6/81 was. They would still pick up 2-4 inches though.

The 00z run I'm sure will be totally different...and we can repeat that process about 6 time until we get close enough that we can start taking the solutions more seriously. I think the one trend to take away as a positive is the main s/w is much stronger and wants to dig more.

I give anything to lock this soloution in, verbatim.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

I give anything to lock this soloution in, verbatim.

Same here. This is nice, we all get in on some heavy snow with this solution...especially if that thing is slowing down and tracking NNW, someone from Eastern MA up into VT/NH/ME would get crushed. A nice cone of heavy snowfall starting in SE MA and spreading out northward.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

Same here. This is nice, we all get in on some heavy snow with this solution...especially if that thing is slowing down and tracking NNW, someone from Eastern MA up into VT/NH/ME would get crushed. A nice cone of heavy snowfall starting in SE MA and spreading out northward.

I wouldn't be shocked if it worked out....I said last week that I felt this was our first viable potential, though I had admittedly soured on it somewhat over the course of the last couple of days.

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nzucker

nzucker

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After your rather large meltdown last week.

I wouldn't consider it a done deal yet by any means.

This is a good pattern for a snowstorm but people have to remember this is a Day 7 threat. All the models do show something in that time range but there could be a variety of outcomes from a Southern Slider to a HECS to nothing.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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This is a good pattern for a snowstorm but people have to remember this is a Day 7 threat. All the models do show something in that time range but there could be a variety of outcomes from a Southern Slider to a HECS to nothing.

I agree, I'm just glad that we saw a solution like this because it reaffirms the notion that this is our first real threat of the season.

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OKpowdah

OKpowdah

Posted
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Why is Zuckerman and others flailing themselves off bridges? Euro looks goo thru day 10 as we tap another shot of cold air day 10 and beyond

He just wanted to find something that didn't look good on the Euro. If it is one day of temps in the low 40's at day 10, he'll take it ;) lol

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
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This is a good pattern for a snowstorm but people have to remember this is a Day 7 threat. All the models do show something in that time range but there could be a variety of outcomes from a Southern Slider to a HECS to nothing.

When Nate speaks, people listen... of course it is 1 week away, but still

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