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Threat Thread

ski MRG

By ski MRG,
in New England

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OKpowdah

OKpowdah

Posted
Posted

Ugh I know...the upcoming pattern is gorgeous with a 3SD NAO block and a huge ridge over northern Alaska pouring the cold into Canada...but that GoA low will not quiet down! Curse of the strong La Niña here, folks. I'd like to see the models pick up on some overrunning scenarios as I think a cold version of a SWFE would be the best way to capitalize on the cold air and fairly zonal jet. If a piece of that ULL near Cali can break off, maybe we could be talking...

It will be nice to observe more retrogression of the Pacific ridge toward Kamchatka, such that there is less amplification of the GOA trough, and more support for a favorable +PNA pattern.

Right now I think we are really just observing unfortunately s/w interaction that isn't necessarily a direct product of the general pattern in place. Like you're saying there, we don't need some epic disturbance to get us snow; just a small perturbation in the zonal flow to trigger an overrunning.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

We go from 6 wave NHEM pattern early in the run which is rather unstable to a far more stable 4 wave pattern late. Verification is another issue of course...

Not even close to buying any depiction at any level for the GFS post day three, just has been getting worse as fall transistions into winter. The OP runs change so drastically every six hours post day three it is becoming practically useless for even five day forecasts. Broad patterns can been seen but sensible wx fahgettaboutit.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Unfortunately that ridge needs to retrograde to the west to allow for any shortwaves to amplify as they come east. The way the pattern is depicted now by both the GFS and Euro, the baroclinic zone gets shunted way out to see, so any cyclogenesis that happens will be for the fishes. We need a shortwave to amplify strongly to back the flow up the coast. Maybe that happens closer to 12/10 or beyond? Until then, a retro solution is the only way to get snow in here. The retro solution should be great for the northern ski resorts but would have to be quite epic to get snow down to Mass.

LOL..Euro has snow event possibilities all over it 12/5-12/6 from the system shooting to our south and then days 9-10

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

HPC is going between the Euro/Canadian and the GFS for Dec 5-6. Says vortex is to far north to pull the low as far north as E/C would...but that it will come further north than the GFS. At least that's how I interpret it.

THE 00Z GFS DAMPENS THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE OUT OF

EXISTENCE WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z CANADIAN MOVE THIS SHORTWAVE

THROUGH THE RIDGE...DAMPENING THE RIDGE OUT OF EXISTENCE. IF

THERE WERE A POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY...THE ECMWF/CANADIAN

SOLUTION WOULD HAVE MORE MERIT. HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE HAS THE

VORTEX CENTERED OVER NUNAVUT...SO ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FLOW OVER

THE LOWER 48 SHOULD BE MINIMAL IF THE CURRENT GUIDANCE IS CORRECT

IN ITS POSITION AS WELL AS THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE DEEP

CYCLONE NEAR NEW ENGLAND. BELIEVE THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF ARE

TOO STRONG AND THE 00Z GFS IS TOO WEAK WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...SO

USED THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING TO MOVE THIS SYSTEM ON AN

INTERMEDIATE TRACK WHICH RESPECTS THE RIDGING MORE THAN THE

CANADIAN/ECMWF ADVERTISE...TAKING A FRONTAL WAVE TOWARDS MICHIGAN

BEFORE IT SHEARS OUT ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC

CYCLONE. THIS ENDS UP WITH A SET OF PRESSURES THAT MAINTAIN

REASONABLE CONTINUITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NO BETTER THAN AVERAGE

IN THIS PREFERENCE.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Really not too much to talk about today. I think we've completely gone over all the possibilities in the last 4 days or so.

Always something to talk about..esp the fact that some circles are talking about a huge M/A snowstorm in Dec in a strong la Nina..lol..that hasn't happened since 54-55 according to HM...north trend commences

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Always something to talk about..esp the fact that some circles are talking about a huge M/A snowstorm in Dec in a strong la Nina..lol..that hasn't happened since 54-55 according to HM...north trend commences

Let them talk, Its going to be snowing up this way within the next 10 days, Plenty of potential in this upcoming pattern not to come up empty.......... :scooter:

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millpondwx

millpondwx

Posted
Posted

LOL..Euro has snow event possibilities all over it 12/5-12/6 from the system shooting to our south and then days 9-10

Well, like I said, even though the euro shows an impressive retrograding solution over the weekend, it still only produces very light snow SW of Portland. Then the 12/6 wave is still too far offshore due to the shunted baroclinic zone. Maybe this wave is modeled too weak and ends up closer to the coast or maybe the wave after is the one that amplifies? In any event, chances are still good for something to happen. I still like the 12/9-12/11 timeframe.

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