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Threat Thread

ski MRG

By ski MRG,
in New England

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
  On 11/29/2010 at 6:52 PM, MaineJayhawk said:

That would make for an interesting gtg on Saturday. Heavy heavy laptop action.

At the last Worcetser gtg, wasn't Keving getting heavy, heavy lap dance action? He might enjoy this more........

I think the most encouraging sign is that this is less than 10 days out. Don't think we've been able to say that about anything other than LC for the last few weeks.

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted
  On 11/29/2010 at 6:49 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Sun night through Tues morning it looks like verbatim. However, if we get a more straight forward redeveloping system that doesn't retrograde like this, then the system would probably be more of a Sat night through Sun type deal.

  On 11/29/2010 at 6:50 PM, CapeCodWeather.net said:

that is one of the most f-ed up 5h charts you will see at day 8 / 9.

that looks like something the GFS would cook up.

  On 11/29/2010 at 6:50 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that is almost impossible to believe.It tries to phase the back end of the retrograding storm with the SW shortwave.

LOL... well the straight forward systems are more likely then a retrograde so I like my odds. A possibly interesting drive back to BA Sunday.

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free_man

free_man

Posted
Posted
  On 11/29/2010 at 5:44 PM, ETauntonMA said:

All over the place to say the least.

See the 12z Euro?  Remember several days ago when you and I agreed a nice coastal was the most reasonable solution?   I'm feeling even better about that call and did not back down.    :snowman:

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 11/29/2010 at 7:05 PM, ETauntonMA said:

Courtesy of Earthlight

QPF from the storm...estimates:

DCA:0.75"

ACY:0.50"

PHL:0.25"

NYC:0.20"

Central LI: 0.50"

East End of LI:1.00"

BOS:1.25"

ORH:1.00"

Looks a bit generous everywhere based on my maps...but it doesn't matter anyway given the ridiculous time frame. BOS is probably closer to an inch of qpf (maybe just over) and ORH is more like 0.80"...but regardless, its still a great solution.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted
  On 11/29/2010 at 7:09 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Looks a bit generous everywhere based on my maps...but it doesn't matter anyway given the ridiculous time frame. BOS is probably closer to an inch of qpf (maybe just over) and ORH is more like 0.80"...but regardless, its still a great solution.

Yeah, I figured I'd post em since he gave them out since I am sure people are at least morbidly curious. It's going to a long 7 days.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
  On 11/29/2010 at 7:10 PM, CoastalWx said:

This run of the euro is probably the most weenie of all possibly solutions, unless it were to stall east of CHH. It keeps eastern mass up through ORH in deformation banding for hours and hours.

And that gives me all the reason to think it won't happen quite this way, But i will take what is showing that a storm possibly moving up the coast, The details will get ironed out over the next few days at least we get to track something in a 10 day window........

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
  On 11/29/2010 at 7:10 PM, CoastalWx said:

This run of the euro is probably the most weenie of all possibly solutions, unless it were to stall east of CHH. It keeps eastern mass up through ORH in deformation banding for hours and hours.

For those in the population centers of New England. Congrats!

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 11/29/2010 at 7:16 PM, moneypitmike said:

For those in the population centers of New England. Congrats!

Well it gives you snow as well. What I meant was that it takes a track, such that the best forcing stays in place for hours. This happens to be over eastern areas. Obviously lots can change including a further west track...or east. That was a pretty large jump from 00z, but there are a lot of moving parts as well. The s/w that Will pointed out, is just one of them. I wouldn't get worked up until within 96 hrs..and even that wouldn't be a lock with this pattern.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 11/29/2010 at 7:24 PM, CoastalWx said:

Well it gives you snow as well. What I meant was that it takes a track, such that the best forcing stays in place for hours. This happens to be over eastern areas. Obviously lots can change including a further west track...or east. That was a pretty large jump from 00z, but there are a lot of moving parts as well. The s/w that Will pointed out, is just one of them. I wouldn't get worked up until within 96 hrs..and even that wouldn't be a lock with this pattern.

Its a screw job for far W MA just like 12/6/81 was. They would still pick up 2-4 inches though.

The 00z run I'm sure will be totally different...and we can repeat that process about 6 time until we get close enough that we can start taking the solutions more seriously. I think the one trend to take away as a positive is the main s/w is much stronger and wants to dig more.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
  On 11/29/2010 at 7:27 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Its a screw job for far W MA just like 12/6/81 was. They would still pick up 2-4 inches though.

The 00z run I'm sure will be totally different...and we can repeat that process about 6 time until we get close enough that we can start taking the solutions more seriously. I think the one trend to take away as a positive is the main s/w is much stronger and wants to dig more.

I'm not concerned about track--I was merely responding to an earlier post and congratulating you folks out east. I'm sure we'll be seeing many difference scenarios presented before we get to the 'nuts and bolts' of who (if anyone) gets what/how much.

40.1/27

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted
  On 11/29/2010 at 7:27 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Its a screw job for far W MA just like 12/6/81 was. They would still pick up 2-4 inches though.

The 00z run I'm sure will be totally different...and we can repeat that process about 6 time until we get close enough that we can start taking the solutions more seriously. I think the one trend to take away as a positive is the main s/w is much stronger and wants to dig more.

You'd have to figure by about Wednesday afternoon/ Thursday morning the Euro should have a pretty good handle on the s/w in question, no?

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted
  On 11/29/2010 at 6:53 PM, weathafella said:

It's kind of like a NHEM food fight. Block collapses while Pacific amplifies while it is bitter cold in the far north (Canada) and raging warm Pacific Air tries to overtake the USA.

This is horrid in the long range...total torch incoming as we're developing a massive +EPO/+NAO. The entire CONUS has been completely cut off from the Arctic.

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OKpowdah

OKpowdah

Posted
Posted
  On 11/29/2010 at 8:05 PM, nzucker said:

This is horrid in the long range...total torch incoming as we're developing a massive +EPO/+NAO. The entire CONUS has been completely cut off from the Arctic.

New England might warm a few degrees above normal, but verbatim, by day 10, we have anticyclonic wave breaking to our west, and we reopen a connection to northwest Canada

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
  On 11/29/2010 at 8:19 PM, CoastalWx said:

Verbatim, even the euro ensembles would probably give se mass/Cape some snow. Pretty good run. It also wants to do something with a follow up low coming from the GOM, but verbatim there is no low. The signal is there, however.

I see DT has a radio show for tonight to discuus the upcoming pattern change and to discuus the upcoming threats.........

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
  On 11/29/2010 at 8:19 PM, CoastalWx said:

Verbatim, even the euro ensembles would probably give se mass/Cape some snow. Pretty good run. It also wants to do something with a follow up low coming from the GOM, but verbatim there is no low. The signal is there, however.

Overall its a good trend, Storm amplyfys sooner and trends more north and west lets hope it continues at 00z tonight but that is a pretty good jump from 00z last night....

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