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NNE Winter Snow Thread II


dryslot

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I’ve added the updated advisories and warnings map from BTV, but their projected accumulations map looks similar to yesterday, so I’ll just refer to the one that was already posted in the thread. This morning Roger Hill suggested the potential for 1 to 2 feet in the Green Mountains, with 6 to 10 or 8 to 14 for some valley locations and the potential for school closures. Looking at the winter storm warnings from BTV, it seems that the biggest totals are more south of here, although as is often the case, if upslope gets into the picture later in the storm cycle, the Northern Greens seem to do pretty well. The current point forecast for our location in the Winooski Valley at ~500’ suggests 5 to 10 inches through tomorrow, and then additional snow Friday night, Saturday, and Saturday night. We’ll have to see how this system goes around here, but similar to ’07-’08, we would be closing in on the 200-inch mark for seasonal snowfall at our location if we get a decent dump.

31MAR11A.jpg

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Vim Toot!

Gonna stay on my boat in Chester CT tonight.

Heck with trying to drive up 95/Rt 1 in this tomorrow.

Gonna check out some marinas in Ft. Edward NY area Fri. instead. May be moving my boat there this Apr/May.

Gonna be good sledding in Aroostook County until then though.

Vim Toot

Here we go ...

StormTotalSnowFcst.png

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I noticed that. Nice attention to detail by the good mets at GYX.

Sure, a little local knowledge is always good.

Good ol' Mount A too. Used to mountain bike/hike/ski there quite a bit in my UNH/Portsmouth/York days. Never skied there when it was an opperating ski area though...

agament10.jpg

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Lurker here. Thanks for all the informative discussion and observations. Question. I am driving up to the Mad River Valley from Westchester county New York. We usually leave around 5 pm friday and take the taconic to 22 and then route 7 from Bennington to Rutland. Any thoughts on how the conditions will be? The wifey is pushing to go at 4-5am saturday morning instead. wise? TIA

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Lurker here. Thanks for all the informative discussion and observations. Question. I am driving up to the Mad River Valley from Westchester county New York. We usually leave around 5 pm friday and take the taconic to 22 and then route 7 from Bennington to Rutland. Any thoughts on how the conditions will be? The wifey is pushing to go at 4-5am saturday morning instead. wise? TIA

Welp, hitman, I didn't want you to go unanswered. I figure the storm will be winding down by 5:00 Friday afternoon out that way. I say go for it. Might be a bit slow going but they know how to take care of snow in Vermont. That's my opinion, maybe others will chime in.

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Welp, hitman, I didn't want you to go unanswered. I figure the storm will be winding down by 5:00 Friday afternoon out that way. I say go for it. Might be a bit slow going but they know how to take care of snow in Vermont. That's my opinion, maybe others will chime in.

Thanks. hate to spend a torturous ride with the wife singing I told you so.

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Lurker here. Thanks for all the informative discussion and observations. Question. I am driving up to the Mad River Valley from Westchester county New York. We usually leave around 5 pm friday and take the taconic to 22 and then route 7 from Bennington to Rutland. Any thoughts on how the conditions will be? The wifey is pushing to go at 4-5am saturday morning instead. wise? TIA

22 could be interesting in a few of the higher spots and Rt 7 through the higher stretches between Bennington and Wallingford.

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I just stopped in at the BTV NWS website and noticed that they have updated their Storm Total Snow Forecast map as of 9:31 A.M. this morning. Comparing it to the one from 3:07 P.M. yesterday one can see a few trends. Totals are fairly similar or just a touch downward in the northern 1/3 of the state, and very obvious now is the large area of pink and purple in the central part of the state where the projected accumulations have gone up. Totals seem fairly similar out in the Adirondacks, with a little bump up in the St. Lawrence Valley area.

31MAR11B.jpg

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Trend this AM is east. Vermont seems to mostly be in the 3-6" or 4-8" snow now.

Yeah definitely lower totals than thought yesterday. I'm starting to think this may swing wide enough east that we may struggle to get to 3-6", but we'll see. Luckily backside deformation coupled with an upslope NNW flow should still bring some decent snows at least to the mountains.

The upslope on the backside is definitely something that could keep N.VT in the game for decent totals... but it'll be a much more drawn out event that areas further south where this is looking like a 6-8 hour QPF blast. I could see us snowing for like 12+ hours up in the mountains to get to 6 or maybe 7".

For most towns up this way though, I think this is an advisory level snow event (3-6", 4-8" further southeast towards the LEB area).

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I just stopped in at the BTV NWS website and noticed that they have updated their Storm Total Snow Forecast map as of 9:31 A.M. this morning. Comparing it to the one from 3:07 P.M. yesterday one can see a few trends. Totals are fairly similar or just a touch downward in the northern 1/3 of the state, and very obvious now is the large area of pink and purple in the central part of the state where the projected accumulations have gone up. Totals seem fairly similar out in the Adirondacks, with a little bump up in the St. Lawrence Valley area.

That map isn't happening given the trends at 12z.... SREFs even moved quite a bit SE with the QPF as some of the members of that ensemble that were hitting areas farther west have now moved well east.

My call would be a widespread 3-6" across northern and western VT, with more like 4-8" or 5-10" south and east of a Cornwall-Montpelier line.

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That map isn't happening given the trends at 12z.... SREFs even moved quite a bit SE with the QPF as some of the members of that ensemble that were hitting areas farther west have now moved well east.

My call would be a widespread 3-6" across northern and western VT, with more like 4-8" or 5-10" south and east of a Cornwall-Montpelier line.

Based on the discussion in the Tulip Trouncer thread, it sounds like things are projected to move quite a bit east, so we'll presumably see the updates in the next package. It has been very interesting watching the discussion with the storm in the main thread, the tailpipe and bathtup pictures were hilarious. It is quite a roller coaster ride following the trends down there with all the input from so many different directions.

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MEZ012>014-018>022-010400-

/O.EXT.KGYX.WS.W.0011.110401T0400Z-110402T0200Z/

SOUTHERN OXFORD-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-

INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RUMFORD...NORWAY...FRYEBURG...OXFORD...

FARMINGTON...WILTON...MADISON...SKOWHEGAN...PITTSFIELD...

SANFORD...BERWICK...NORTH WINDHAM...GORHAM...BRIDGTON...

LEWISTON-AUBURN...LIVERMORE FALLS...AUGUSTA...WATERVILLE...

WINTERPORT...UNITY

319 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO

10 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT

TO 10 PM EDT FRIDAY.

* LOCATION: INTERIOR SOUTHWEST MAINE...INCLUDING SANFORD...

LEWISTON...AND AUGUSTA.

* HAZARD TYPE: HEAVY WET SNOW.

* TIMING: LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FALLING LATE TONIGHT...BECOMING

HEAVY BY MORNING. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS: 8 TO 12 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW IS

EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 14 INCHES.

* IMPACTS: ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED BY MORNING RUSH HOUR

FRIDAY MORNING. THE WET SNOW WILL MAKE ROADS ESPECIALLY SLIPPERY

AND MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT AT TIMES. WET SNOW WILL ALSO

ACCUMULATE ON EXPOSED SURFACES AND TREES...POSSIBLY CAUSING

SOME VULNERABLE TREE LIMBS TO SNAP.

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