gravitylover Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Looks like some nice ski terrain right above the house What's the exposure of that hill? Busted out the telephoto yesterday for a real zoom-in: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The upslope snow signature from thursday night until Mid-day saturday is pretty strong. Low leverl RH in the high 80s to 90s, sustained low level lift from surface through h85, winds w in the 15-20s...temps -12 - 16 c... sound about right for an upslope storm in my books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The upslope snow signature from thursday night until Mid-day saturday is pretty strong. Low leverl RH in the high 80s to 90s, sustained low level lift from surface through h85, winds w in the 15-20s...temps -12 - 16 c... sound about right for an upslope storm in my books. Thanks for the update adk, I've been wondering how much potential was out there with the current setup. The NWS has been mentioning the chance for Thursday snow showers in their discussion, but not much beyond that up to this point. Hopefully Powderfreak will share his thoughts too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I don't want to beat a dead horse, but this past storm is another great example of why the snowfall numbers from the Mansfield co-op should be taken with a grain of salt. It is also a primary reason why I've been so adamant about using our two snow measuring sites here on the mountain to get an accurate idea of snowfall. It's not beating a dead horse as far as I'm concerned, there's clearly some issue with the data and the examples help bring it to light. The snowfall measurements at the stake, especially relative to the increases in snowpack, are sometimes very strange. It's great to hear that you are all getting together and may be able to figure it out. It's also nice to see the stake at 95 inches; if there was an upslope snow event, that could certainly help push it to the century mark, even if it was only fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Yeah this is very true... when I lived in Jonesville there would be some snow in our yard while those open areas near 89 and RT 2 were bare. Plus, the snow does melt a heck of a lot faster just west of your area in the Bolton flats, than it does east of the Winooski dam. I was just more surprised that the Richmond CoCoRAHS station lost 19" in like 72 hours. Of course, I didn't mean to sound like I was questioning your observations... I know you are more diligent than even some of the NWS offices, haha. And looking at the Stowe CoCoRAHS observations, it looks like you are running very close to that station. Now that I've spent a winter here, it is very obvious that you're location is extremely close to this area in terms of snowfall and snow depth. I actually think you get more snowfall, but that also may just be very diligent measuring. Don’t worry Scott, your message didn’t come across as any concern about the observations, but when disparities arise, it’s fun to figure out what’s going on (like the issue with the Mansfield stake snowfall totals). Anyway, I brought up this message because while I often take the bus and it’s dark when I’m passing along I-89, today I drove in to Burlington after stopping off at Bolton. All I can say is “Wow!” – the snow is very sparse from the town of Bolton onward. It’s almost as if they got little to any of the snowfall that we just picked up – or if they did it fell on bare ground and melted quickly. It’s just like you showed on the cameras. It’s interesting how close we are running to that Stowe station this season. We’re more protected from warm air intrusion than places like Richmond to our west, but sometimes we’ll still get a good deal of warming just like the west side communities as the air pushes through the Winooski Valley. Typically I’d say that the snow in our location isn’t preserved quite as well as the snow in Stowe, but this season the dividing line really seems to be off to the west of us and we’re more east side-like in that regard. The melting has certainly slowed now with this latest pattern change, so the places that do have snow should have it around for a bit longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Looks like some nice ski terrain right above the house What's the exposure of that hill? That picture is looking almost due north, so the hill above faces south, a little bit west, call it south-by-west. There is an old trail that goes up & over it, pretty much where you're looking. On the other side is a class IV town road which is also a snowmobile trail in the winter. The skiing is actually better on the other side--north slope, holds snow better and the trees are more open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 It's not beating a dead horse as far as I'm concerned, there's clearly some issue with the data and the examples help bring it to light. The snowfall measurements at the stake, especially relative to the increases in snowpack, are sometimes very strange. It's great to hear that you are all getting together and may be able to figure it out. It's also nice to see the stake at 95 inches; if there was an upslope snow event, that could certainly help push it to the century mark, even if it was only fluff. It was a very interesting and enlightening discussion regarding their snowfall measurements today... when I have some time, energy, and motivation I'll post a complete summary here and on skivt-l. Regardless, yesterday's 2.3" new snow measurement was what collected in their standard snow bucket. However, we found out they had 7" fall in their acid rain bucket (which has a larger diameter for whatever reason). The 7" makes a heck of a lot more sense with 0.7" of liquid than 2.3" of snow. Basically, this is the way it has been done for 60 years and they know its flawed but no one wants to mess with changing what has a significant historical period of record because then you can't compare it with past years. I'm not sure how I feel about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Here are a few pictures from today... Pulling into work at 5:30am to find 1" of overnight fluff at 1,500ft... We found 2" of snow overnight on the 3,000ft snow board... Extremely localized orographic snow showers continued till about noontime... here's a zoomed in look towards Smuggler's Notch where a steady snow was falling. And here is the zoomed-out look at the cloud producing that snowfall... this is how localized upslope/orographic snowfall is around these parts sometimes. This cloud was producing accumulating snowfall. Here's another example... it is snowing huge fluffy dendrites all over the resort with almost no clouds in sight. The snow just forms out of thin air in these orographic situations. We had steady light snow all morning with blue skies overhead. You can see the thin haze draping Mansfield's ridgeline in the distance; the haze is only a couple hundred feet above the ground level... that's snow falling out of blue skies and how we got 2" of fluff. It is just extremely persistent and does add up over time. And here's a shot from around noontime when the snow was diminishing. See the specks of white against the blue sky? That's not dust on my camera lens... those are pretty big dendrites (even up to 1/2" in diameter) falling out of blue skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 cool pics. still looks like mid-winter. hoping to get to sunday river this wknd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Here are a few pictures from today... Pulling into work at 5:30am to find 1" of overnight fluff at 1,500ft... We found 2" of snow overnight on the 3,000ft snow board... Extremely localized orographic snow showers continued till about noontime... here's a zoomed in look towards Smuggler's Notch where a steady snow was falling. And here is the zoomed-out look at the cloud producing that snowfall... this is how localized upslope/orographic snowfall is around these parts sometimes. This cloud was producing accumulating snowfall. Here's another example... it is snowing huge fluffy dendrites all over the resort with almost no clouds in sight. The snow just forms out of thin air in these orographic situations. We had steady light snow all morning with blue skies overhead. You can see the thin haze draping Mansfield's ridgeline in the distance; the haze is only a couple hundred feet above the ground level... that's snow falling out of blue skies and how we got 2" of fluff. It is just extremely persistent and does add up over time. And here's a shot from around noontime when the snow was diminishing. See the specks of white against the blue sky? That's not dust on my camera lens... those are pretty big dendrites (even up to 1/2" in diameter) falling out of blue skies. Simply WOW... I am so jealous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Some nice moderate snow covering the roads on the commute this morning. It'll probably melt by the time I make it back to my stately villa tonight so any accumulation will go unmeasured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Yesterday was a great example of the flaws with the Mt Mansfield Co-Op snowfall data... it is only the "new" snowfall that is flawed though, not the total depth of snowfall on the ground. 1) The "NEW" snowfall bucket is not situated in a sheltered location like the seasonal depth stake. This is probably the number one issue. Where the stake is located at 3,700ft is very sheltered and much less prone to any wind (only in extreme wind events). However, the new snowfall bucket is up at the engineers station on the ridgeline. Fred Lavenburg (guy from WCAX in charge of measuring) said that his building is surrounded by windswept rock, so it is no surprise that there's never any snow in the bucket. The bucket is supposed to be a representation of the area and given that there is no snow on the ground where the bucket is, it makes sense that there's never any snow in the bucket either. What we decided needs to happen is the snow bucket needs to be moved down next to the seasonal stake, because right now the bucket isn't sampling the snowfall at the stake, but the snowfall on a wind-swept ridgeline. 2) Maybe another option we thought about doing was setting up a snow board similar to our 3,000ft plot right next to the snow stake. Our ski patroller, Spike, who has worked extensively with the Snow Rangers on Mt Washington thinks the best idea is to set up several different measuring methods to see which one collects the best data. A snow bucket may work in some areas, but not others. Likewise a snow board could work in one place but not another. 3) The guys that do these Co-Op readings are volunteers. They are engineers who are told to do this for the Weather Service. Fred said he is in charge of it but only does the measuring 2 nights a week and he's the only one that sort of cares. It sounds like the other guys really don't care what the data comes out to, they just do it because they have to. I think this is one of the biggest issues... the personal side of it. I don't blame them because if you don't have a passion for it, you're not going to go out of your way searching for the right answer when you've got a list of other daily duties to make sure the WCAX television towers are staying operational. That's why sometimes there isn't any data for the day because if something happens and the towers stop transmitting for whatever reason, these guys' first priority is making sure WCAX stays on-line, not measuring snow for NOAA. Anyway... yesterday Fred witnessed the 2" of new snow at 3,000ft on our snow board. Here's the plot with Mt Mansfield Ski Patroller "Spike". Clearing the snow board and then stomping out a circle around the board, as Fred looks on. Fred did say he acknowledged that we got 2" of new snow. He was doing the measuring last night for the Co-Op report and said that although he saw the new snow, he still needs to report what is in the bucket up at the engineers station. So the co-op report yesterday was 1" of new snow. DAILY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 611 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011 STATION PRECIP TEMPERATURE PRESENT SNOW 24 HRS MAX MIN CUR WEATHER NEW TOTAL SWE ...VERMONT... MOUNT MANSFIELD 0.09 20 4 14 1.0 95 I guess it is what it is, but based on our 3,000ft plot, Tracey/Spike said he compared the numbers and the co-op has been averaging 18" lower each month than our snow board. This week the difference has been 4.3" at the co-op vs. 10" at our snow board. That adds up to a pretty big difference during the course of a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Basically, this is the way it has been done for 60 years and they know its flawed but no one wants to mess with changing what has a significant historical period of record because then you can't compare it with past years. I'm not sure how I feel about that. That is a tough decision. One way to look at it is that people in the know, or those who pay close attention to the combined snowfall and snowpack data, probably don’t have too much faith in the validity of the snowfall numbers anyway – so how useful are they? If there’s a known flaw in the snowfall numbers (especially one that seems to be stochastic vs. one that was at least consistent), it is probably better to cut bait sooner rather than later. I’ve learned that these climate stations do change (did I hear that snowfall data for Burlington used to be collected closer to town?). Whatever the case, if you guys get your analyses going at the resort, that could be the start of a good data set. It’s nice to see things coming to light though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 The upslope snow signature from thursday night until Mid-day saturday is pretty strong. Low leverl RH in the high 80s to 90s, sustained low level lift from surface through h85, winds w in the 15-20s...temps -12 - 16 c... sound about right for an upslope storm in my books. ADK, aka Lionel, aka A.J.... dude congrats on the publicity on ESPN.com! I couldn't believe when I was reading this article to come across you guys at FIS. Also couldn't believe Chris Nelson (Stowe/Smuggs skier, filmer) was in there, too. http://sports.espn.g...tory?id=6190886 Here's an excerpt from the article... "Some won't settle for chance. Chris Nelson, a powder hound who tracks good snow between Vermont and California, is skeptical about Powder Predictor. "Two mountains side-by-side may produce completely different weather patterns which makes it hard to predict. There are just so many factors involved," he said. "I need the most detailed forecast I can find when trying to decide where to go." On the east coast, his go-to is niche forecaster Famous Internet Skiers. A.J. LaRosa is "the weather man" for Famous Internet Skiers and has 15 years experience. "For all the science involved, it [forecasting] is art. You need gut sense from experience. Mountains are micro-climates; they are like small dots on the map," he said. "To understand where the best snow is falling, you have to understand how the larger weather patterns will interact with specific points." Those who follow LaRosa are treated to hand-drawn maps and technical jargon which would deter all but the most ardent snow junkies. The payoff is good. "I love winter storms. I feel like a proud parent," he wrote on Sunday. "I saw the potential for this storm, forecasted it, watched it grow and shrink in the models. Watched as this system gathered strength setting the stage for an explosively snowy night." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 No snow here last night, but then again, didn't expect any. Cold though--bottomed out at 11F. The foreseeable future looks pretty darn cold for the time of year. A little too cold for sugaring even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 OK, I've been taking some days off work this week and had in mind when I put in for them, to do some skiing. I didn't expect mid-winter conditions, but that's what we've had. The ski touring is about as good as it gets right now--deep, stout old snowpack covering up all the debris and fresh stuff on top. I was hired by the town conservation commission to take a photographic panorama from the top of a place called Roaring Ridge, on which we have a new town recreation trail. We plan on building a display on the top, with the panorama encased therein, so that folks who hike/ski/snowshoe up, can look at the panorama with the peaks labeled and see what they're looking at. The top is at about 2000' and has spectacular views to the east and the mountains in NH. This past Sunday was a nice clear day so in the late afternoon, I packed up my gear, drove over there and skied up. After reaching the top, I set up the tri-pod, the camera and drank a beer. Here's what I got (caution, large image!): http://www.flickr.co...57625755895204/ Anyway, on the way back down on Sunday, I stopped to take another picture or two and in the process of pulling my camera out of my pack, I dropped my climbing skin bag, complete with a pair of skins and didn't realize it till I got home. Luckily, I have another set of skins. So, yesterday I decided to ski back up there and see if I could find my skins--which I did! After finding the skins, I skied up to the top, out across a ridgeline and down through a bowl of wide open hardwoods. Couldn't be beat. From yesterday--at the top, picnic anyone?: Looking down through the hardwoods, nice and open for skiing: And back up, makin' turns! Now the big question is where the hell am I going to go today. Tough decision. Late-winter appreciation, yo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Late-winter appreciation, yo. Awesome photos... great work and awesome landscape photo for the new rec trail. Congrats, that's pretty cool. This is definitely as good as it gets for ski conditions this time of year. Deep, rock-solid snowpack with several inches of settled powder (the wet snow from the other day has dried out thanks to temps in the single digits and teens the past couple days) on top... the tree skiing is literally as good as it gets because the deep solid snowpack is covering up all the snow snakes (downed trees, rocks, stumps) and brush, so you can pretty much go where ever you want to in the forest with no problem. Time to go back out for some more bluebird skiing on a buried, and white-frosted mountain! Enjoy the day everyone. Here's a shot of some nice Mansfield glades yesterday... covered with the 7-10" of snow we've gotten since Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 What a great shot! Mt biking allowed up that ridgeline you skied? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Huge dendrites floating to the earth here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 24, 2011 Author Share Posted March 24, 2011 Parachute Aggregates falling here as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 3/4" of snow from overnight and this morning. Just about all gone in the unprotected areas as the March sun drills through the clouds and zaps what it can. --SN 31.1°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Hopefully the inverted trough gives someone here a snowy surprise. 31.6F with a few flurries this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Snowing huge dendritic aggregates right now, but not much is sticking even though it is 31F. Jay could get a surprise in Bridgton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Eek cam shows sorta how it looked here. It has let up a bit now though...just some very -SN...looks like more on the way though. I wish this was falling at night. edit...time sensitive. Snowing hard again here. Seems any little reflectivity results in huge dendritic aggregates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 3/4" of snow from overnight and this morning. Just about all gone in the unprotected areas as the March sun drills through the clouds and zaps what it can. --SN 31.1°F 3/4" ... nice. I'm looking at radar and there's been a nice patch over my 'hood. Unfortunately, I'm sure that by the time I get home it'll have met the same fate as your new snow did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 24, 2011 Author Share Posted March 24, 2011 Eek cam shows sorta how it looked here. It has let up a bit now though...just some very -SN...looks like more on the way though. I wish this was falling at night. edit...time sensitive. Snowing hard again here. Seems any little reflectivity results in huge dendritic aggregates. Nice pic, That pic was is not that far from The Nasseau and Lakeport Landing..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Had 0.1" overnight at my place, though I'm not sure if there were ever more than 10 flakes in the air at any one time. Went to Farmington (blood drawn for lab work) and they had 0.5" at 8, and another 1/4" with nice parachutes as I left DD (breakfast, due to fasting for the test). By the time I got halfway back to New Sharon, all snow had stopped, new cover was a rapidly disappearing 0.1", and the sun was nearly finding some holes in the clouds thru which to peek. Not enthused with either 06z gfs nor GYX forecast. The latter has 50% pop for snsh today, then zero mention of precip thru Wed, the end of their forecast period. Meh and double meh. GFS still shows a phantom 3" for tomorrow - can't figure why that patch of disconnected qpf is there - then a gradual but significant (and mainly dry) warmup ending with a torch followed by day14 rain-to-snow then some midwinter temps for 4/8-9. LOL at that last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Nice pic, That pic was is not that far from The Nasseau and Lakeport Landing..... Took me a minute but I think you meant Naswa. The docks in the lower right corner are at Naswa and Lakeport is 4 miles down at the far end of the Paugus Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 24, 2011 Author Share Posted March 24, 2011 Took me a minute but I think you meant Naswa. The docks in the lower right corner are at Naswa and Lakeport is 4 miles down at the far end of the Paugus Bay. Yeah its Naswa brain cramp, I have stayed there a couple of times, Been out on winni quite a few times when i was still boating, Yeah i bought a couple of boats off the Blizzards a few years back at Lakeport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Snowing huge dendritic aggregates right now, but not much is sticking even though it is 31F. Jay could get a surprise in Bridgton. Yes, huge gently falling light snow all dendrites upon awakening. Sky dark to north now.. second band of snow GYX mentioned about an hour and fifteen away I think. No accums yet today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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