MaineJayhawk Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 0z nam taken verbatium would place our area in a low end warning event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 And loaded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Nice pic of the deer wxeyeNH. Very cool Fun disco too from Gray. Balls to the wall today baby. Lets hope it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 0z nam taken verbatium would place our area in a low end warning event... 0.83" QPF for LEW, 0.68" for SFM on 00z NAM. I desire to see my county in the pink tomorrow AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 0.83" QPF for LEW, 0.68" for SFM on 00z NAM. I desire to see my county in the pink tomorrow AM. I dont think ive ever forecasted a warning level snow event with screaming SE winds in the BL. Should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 27F & cloudy at the moment. Temps all over the place too--Albany near 40, Middlebury at 37 and yet Morrisville is 24. Balls to the wall today baby. Lets hope it verifies. That was you, right? I like it when one can tell that the disco was written by an actual human. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I think this is more of a southern to central VT/NH deal now... convection seems to have robbed some moisture further north and dynamics are a little further south than they looked yesterday. Looking at the current radar, I think jackpot is going to be high terrain in ALY's S.VT zones over towards BOX's Monadnock area. You can see how the 6z GFS and NAM cut QPF up north and snow will be delayed at least till mid/late morning up here. I never like when WAA precip comes in later than modeled... historically WAA seems to come in quicker than models show. You guys in CNE look to take the brunt of this... as if you loop this, the heavy precip just entering the BGM region was progged yesterday to be destroying the southern Adirondacks right now. Yesterday's 18z NAM had .6" of QPF between 12-15z across the southern Adirondacks and that looks like its now in NY's southern tier. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Looking at the radar, it looks to me that the bulk of the precip will be south of of me. I don't expect to make it to the 4 to 8 inch range they are calling for here. I hope I'm worng though. I usually am. Edit: Yeah what Powderfreak said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I dont think ive ever forecasted a warning level snow event with screaming SE winds in the BL. Should be interesting. Welcome to NNE. We see screaming SE winds bring warning snows all the time... how else are you supposed to get Atlantic moisture up here haha? Or are you more speaking with regards to the coastal plain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 With the caveats of what folks are seeing on the radar that suggest activity will be farther south, I’ve still added in the last couple rounds of BTV graphics from last night into this morning. As new information gets incorporated it sounds like we might see the latest maps change: I checked in on the board last night and saw the discussion about the upcoming storm, but didn’t have time to post. I did grab screenshots of some of BTV’s graphics so I’d be able to see how they compared to what was out this morning. It seemed that last night the thoughts were for things to be much more marginal in the valleys, with no advisories up in the Champlain Valley: The point forecast for our location at 500’ in the Winooski Valley suggested just a few inches, and on the storm total forecast map one could see what the snowfall amounts were expected to be in the valleys. In our area, the expected drop off in snowfall amounts in the lower elevations was very evident where the Winooski Valley cuts through the spine of the Greens. Checking in again this morning, I saw that the advisories had been extended to the Champlain Valley: In the snowfall forecast maps, the anticipated valley accumulations looked more substantial than what they’d been last night: Listening to Roger Hill this morning, he was thinking there may not actually be much of a changeover to rain east of the Greens. Also, the point forecast for our location has been increased substantially, such that it now suggests 4 to 10 inches of accumulation. I’m not sure how much we’ll see since temperatures will probably still be pretty marginal down at our elevation, but anyway, that's an update on what I’ve seen for our neck of the woods. This morning at my 6:00 A.M. observations, the temperature was 27.5 F, and snowpack at the stake was 19.5 inches, so that’s where things will be starting from with whatever goes on today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 0z nam taken verbatium would place our area in a low end warning event... The GFS and NAM are showing the low transfering energy to the coast, and wrapping some of it back over Maine, how much and how soon that happens will really matter for our are I think. Depending on warming at the surface, we could really get hit pretty good I think. This has huge bust potential, but really needs to be watched. This is the exact type of storm 08 was famous for, and they always overperformed in Maine when they developed stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 This morning at my 6:00 A.M. observations, the temperature was 27.5 F, and snowpack at the stake was 19.5 inches, so that’s where things will be starting from with whatever goes on today. You're yard must be pretty sheltered? I drove I-89 to Burlington this weekend and really didn't think there was that much in your area. I would've guessed like a foot or so, at least what I could see of the Winooski Valley from Waterbury to Richmond... but to be fair, the highway does run next to the south facing side of the Winooski Valley. However, like I posted yesterday, snow depths vary widely (very widely) from house to house and all you can do is report what is in your yard. Any open areas though got torched... if you're in a wooded area you'll definitely have a lot more snow than someone out in the open. Looking at webcams on I-89, you can tell how the open areas have gone bare, but snow remains in the woods. Bolton I-89 cams... Williston cam shows the bare fields, snowy wooded areas off the distance...and this is around 700ft in elevation. And here in Stowe, sheltered/wooded yards still have a decent amount of snow... but the field across the street from this webcam (out of view) has bare spots showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 The GFS and NAM are showing the low transfering energy to the coast, and wrapping some of it back over Maine, how much and how soon that happens will really matter for our are I think. Depending on warming at the surface, we could really get hit pretty good I think. This has huge bust potential, but really needs to be watched. This is the exact type of storm 08 was famous for, and they always overperformed in Maine when they developed stronger. Nam at 06z has backed off on precip, Gfs has us at a little over .50", Plus we will lose some accumalation due to heated surfaces, I think my call for 3-5" will still be where we end up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 You're yard must be pretty sheltered? I drove I-89 to Burlington this weekend and really didn't think there was that much in your area. I would've guessed like a foot or so, at least what I could see of the Winooski Valley from Waterbury to Richmond... but to be fair, the highway does run next to the south facing side of the Winooski Valley. I was just looking through the CoCoRAHS reports over the last week with regards to snow depth and wow are reports all over the place. The Richmond 3.4 SSE observer had 19" on 3/16, 18" on 3/17, 5.5" on 3/18, 1" on 3/19, and bare ground yesterday. That's sort of what a lot of folks at the ski area have been mentioning who live in Chittenden County... impressive snow loss in a 48 hour period last Thur/Fri. Underhill had 17" on 3/16 and 11" on 3/19. Stowe 0.2 SW had 26" on 3/16 and 18" today... so maybe our snow depth in town is deeper than I think it is and I'm just looking at the bare spots showing up in the fields and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Powderfreak- it looks like the snow is right on your doorstep at this point. Our snowpack in Peacham has taken a big hit and I have not done any recent measurements but when I when to take moon photos on Friday in the open field behind town, I would occasionaly break through the crust and be in snow up to my knees so there is still a good base out there. Coles Pond before the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 The 6z NAM is really trying to wrap this up at the last second. At 3z you can see the sfc low on the streamlines over NE MA. There's a stripe of +SN that has fallen over 3hr over N VT/N NH/SW ME. Some of the higher res WRFs even pop the 850 low track over or just south of me. So even though we're painstakingly waiting for the precip, that is reaching the ground, to move in, it may snow for many of us until nearly midnight. This all may be a moot point with the 12z NAM coming out soon. Looks like it should start flying here towards noon. There's a lot of dry air we're trying to overcome between H85-H925. In the meantime it's allowed the BL to warm. I'm up to 32.2F now, but my Td is 21F. We should wetbulb down to near 30F once it starts cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 29.9F/21.7F temp has been rising about 1F per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 GYX has the foothills down for 5-7". Clouds have rolled in to limit the sun-powered warmup a bit, but we'll still probably lose some front-end accum unless it goes right to +SN. Ratios of 8-9:1 seem about right. Of course, that's all I've been getting from the more significant events all season. The 15:1 stuff only comes here with the tail-end -SN feathers. Hanging on to 15" at the stake, and we're approaching the season where "New snow just makes the old stuff melt faster" (heard often in April in Ft. Kent) a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 As of roughly 9:00 A.M., snow has started falling here in Burlington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Wow. You're yard must be pretty sheltered? Yeah, I bet it's very much like you had mentioned in your discussion about the snowpack observed from different people in Stowe. Our yard gets some sun, but the largest distances to our woods from the house are probably 60-70 feet, so even the most open areas are probably getting only filtered sun a lot of the day with the currently low sun angle. After a few years now at our current location, I’m pretty happy with the stake placement in terms of representation for the yard. It’s got partial shade, thus it gets some sun as well, and seems to mark a pretty decent average snow depth for the yard area. I can see that exposed, south-facing slopes above us are melted out in areas, but even the flat, open fields in the area (such as those around the Cider House) were still generally covered with snow the last time I looked. I wasn’t looking specifically yesterday, but it certainly would have caught my eye if they had melted out. I think the images from the I-89 cameras farther to the west might be a bit deceptive though, because I remember being surprised at how quickly the snow had disappeared around there. Stowe 0.2 SW had 26" on 3/16 and 18" today... so maybe our snow depth in town is deeper than I think it is and I'm just looking at the bare spots showing up in the fields and such. It sounds like the snowpack at our location is tracking fairly closely with the Stowe 0.2 SW site (within an inch or so); here are the snow depths from my 6:00 A.M. CoCoRaHS observations from that period (Waterbury 3.0 NW): Wed 3/16: 25.0” Thu 3/17: 25.0” Fri 3/18: 23.5” Sat 3/19: 20.5” Sun 3/20: 20.0” Mon 3/21: 19.5” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 The 6z NAM is really trying to wrap this up at the last second. At 3z you can see the sfc low on the streamlines over NE MA. There's a stripe of +SN that has fallen over 3hr over N VT/N NH/SW ME. Some of the higher res WRFs even pop the 850 low track over or just south of me. So even though we're painstakingly waiting for the precip, that is reaching the ground, to move in, it may snow for many of us until nearly midnight. This all may be a moot point with the 12z NAM coming out soon. Looks like it should start flying here towards noon. There's a lot of dry air we're trying to overcome between H85-H925. In the meantime it's allowed the BL to warm. I'm up to 32.2F now, but my Td is 21F. We should wetbulb down to near 30F once it starts cranking. 12z nam looks like its trying to wrap it up as well but looks a little late for us here, Looks like from the midcoast to DE Maine could see some enhanced precip which looks like it would be cold enough for mostly snow, We shall see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 12z nam looks like its trying to wrap it up as well but looks a little late for us here, Looks like from the midcoast to DE Maine could see some enhanced precip which looks like it would be cold enough for mostly snow, We shall see.... Yeah...the midcoast gets rocked with a lolli of 1.00"+ as the H7 low tries to redevelop just off of the coast in the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 Yeah...the midcoast gets rocked with a lolli of 1.00"+ as the H7 low tries to redevelop just off of the coast in the GOM. The Mid Coast and Downeast see these types a lot, Just not the last couple of years up this way, We are usually caught between the transfer unless we can get a rapid explosive development but that does not look like the case, Just a little to late.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 In Hanover now--snow just breaking out in the past ten minutes or so. It comes in in kind of a wall. After last week's warmth, just gotta love the weather. It's like the NBA--one make up call after another. As for snowpack discussions--23" at the stake this morning at the house. Considerably less just a couple hundred feet lower in elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Yeah, I bet it's very much like you had mentioned in your discussion about the snowpack observed from different people in Stowe. Our yard gets some sun, but the largest distances to our woods from the house are probably 60-70 feet, so even the most open areas are probably getting only filtered sun a lot of the day with the currently low sun angle. After a few years now at our current location, I’m pretty happy with the stake placement in terms of representation for the yard. It’s got partial shade, thus it gets some sun as well, and seems to mark a pretty decent average snow depth for the yard area. I can see that exposed, south-facing slopes above us are melted out in areas, but even the flat, open fields in the area (such as those around the Cider House) were still generally covered with snow the last time I looked. I wasn’t looking specifically yesterday, but it certainly would have caught my eye if they had melted out. I think the images from the I-89 cameras farther to the west might be a bit deceptive though, because I remember being surprised at how quickly the snow had disappeared around there. It sounds like the snowpack at our location is tracking fairly closely with the Stowe 0.2 SW site (within an inch or so); here are the snow depths from my 6:00 A.M. CoCoRaHS observations from that period (Waterbury 3.0 NW): Wed 3/16: 25.0” Thu 3/17: 25.0” Fri 3/18: 23.5” Sat 3/19: 20.5” Sun 3/20: 20.0” Mon 3/21: 19.5” Yeah this is very true... when I lived in Jonesville there would be some snow in our yard while those open areas near 89 and RT 2 were bare. Plus, the snow does melt a heck of a lot faster just west of your area in the Bolton flats, than it does east of the Winooski dam. I was just more surprised that the Richmond CoCoRAHS station lost 19" in like 72 hours. Of course, I didn't mean to sound like I was questioning your observations... I know you are more diligent than even some of the NWS offices, haha. And looking at the Stowe CoCoRAHS observations, it looks like you are running very close to that station. Now that I've spent a winter here, it is very obvious that you're location is extremely close to this area in terms of snowfall and snow depth. I actually think you get more snowfall, but that also may just be very diligent measuring. Anyway... snow started around 9:30am or so. Coming down pretty good right now but snow growth is lacking. I checked our snow plots this morning before the snow started and here are the snow depths: 3,000ft...60" 1,500ft...28" So while at the beginning of the month snowdepth in the village at 800ft was very close to that of 1,500ft... now there's at least a 10" difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Yeah...the midcoast gets rocked with a lolli of 1.00"+ as the H7 low tries to redevelop just off of the coast in the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hvysnow79 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 First flakes started falling at 1100, like Allenson mentioned it came in like a wall. Right now we have lgt-mod snow falling, everything is turning white rapidly. Temp also has dropped back down to 31F after maxing out at 35F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 It just started snowing lightly here in St. J. Here is a before and after of Monpelier- first is from about an hour ago and the other is from about 5 minutes ago. courtesy the BTV camera network Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Snowing now. Gotta love the little "gustfront" you get when finally overcoming the virga. Quickly down to 32.9F after peaking at 34.4F a bit ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 We've wetbulbed down to 27F at 1,500ft. Not bad for almost noon on March 21st. Just under an inch at 1,500ft... just over an inch at 3,000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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