Lava Rock Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Well, If this storm is going to be west then it can keep going west and take the heavy precip with it, We shall see what happens over the next few model runs, -SN/RA mix how are you getting more than 12 lines of text in your sig? every time I try adding more snow totals it won't let me and I have to arrange in columns,. which is unreadable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 how are you getting more than 12 lines of text in your sig? every time I try adding more snow totals it won't let me and I have to arrange in columns,. which is unreadable. Perks for those who donate.Looks like the 12z NAM is a tick cooler. Good news for extreme NW VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 how are you getting more than 12 lines of text in your sig? every time I try adding more snow totals it won't let me and I have to arrange in columns,. which is unreadable. I guess thats the million dollar question? I have been asked that by a few on here and have no answer for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 Perks for those who donate. Looks like the 12z NAM is a tick cooler. Good news for extreme NW VT. Ah, Yes, Thanks, Dendrite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Lots of accidents in the area from the freezing rain, according to my m-i-l who has a scanner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Yeah I did see that... I think there's a chance of that but we need the GFS to work out. I can see some of the potential that people are talking about on the recent accumulated snowfall maps from the GFS. That is a very tight gradient that unfortunately leaves many NNE folks out of the snowfall. The 48-hour and 72-hour maps from what looks to be the 6Z GFS have been added below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Just to add to the clown map madness in NNE. Only some slight differences between the current NAM and the 6z GFS for NNE Seems that BTV is leaning closer to the GFS than the NAM - same with the upstate new york offices so that's a good sign. 12Z NAM http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=CXX 6Z GFS (Though if I had to guess 12Z GFS would be similar http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=CXX Edit: Attachment fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 30.9F with some freezing drizzle. We've been getting FZDZ for 3-4 hours now. Had a dusting of snow before that this morning...about a tenth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 Trace of snow here as well, Then FZRA then -RA, Temps been on a steady rise up to 39 degrees here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattdWX Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I am forecasting today for the VT DOT, what a low confidence forecast....so yea either heavy rain until 5PM tomorrow or heavy snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I am forecasting today for the VT DOT, what a low confidence forecast....so yea either heavy rain until 5PM tomorrow or heavy snow! Good luck dipirro. Hoping for a gfs-esque outcome here at lsc! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattdWX Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 me too, cold air has won this year, lets keep it going....i want to wake up monday morning with a foot of heavy wet snow covering everything! Good luck dipirro. Hoping for a gfs-esque outcome here at lsc! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 We had some flurries earlier but other than that it has been dry. The sun has just made an appearence, tem is up to 40F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 me too, cold air has won this year, lets keep it going....i want to wake up monday morning with a foot of heavy wet snow covering everything! wouldn't mind that at all! even after seeing 10ft snow drifts at stowe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Still 31F with ZR/ZL here. Gotta love how the foothills hold the cold. Salem is 46F right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 12z Ukie is still cold. GFS is still cold. 12z EC is coming in way colder. Great news for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The Euro is a nice hit for N VT and extreme N NH and even ends as ZR/IP/S here. Looks like BTV makes the changeover around 30hr. The 24hr QPF at 54hr is about 1.00" at BTV. Looks like the GFS may win out yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The Euro is a nice hit for N VT and extreme N NH and even ends as ZR/IP/S here. Looks like BTV makes the changeover around 30hr. The 24hr QPF at 54hr is about 1.00" at BTV. Looks like the GFS may win out yet again. How does the NEk do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Had 0.1" snow this morning - took 5 hr to "accumulate" - then it's been dz ever since, temp now upper 30s. I'm getting less optimistic for MBY as the Sun-Mon event gets closer. Looks like 2" rain with a backside dusting. The next one is far enough d9own the road for many changes, of course, but right now it looks like another 2" rain, at slushy lower-mid 30s. Though the cool temps for this pair of probable significant rains wouldn't melt a whole lot of snowpack around here, as now shown there would almost certainly be enough precip to pop the ice on most of the rivers south of VimTootLand. One hopes that if it does, it will also be sufficient to carry the chunks without jamming. Edit: So I post this then check back on MEMA to see if GYX has put out their PM revision, and there's the foothills with a WS watch, for 4-8" tomorrow night and a bit more Mon; mts progged for about 12-18" during that period. Sure didn't look like that on 12z gfs and the trend on that critter was bad. Shows how well I interpret models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Hope no one in in the north country is fretting too much over the NAM since it's likely wrong. On the main thread for the storm OSUMet put in a couple really good posts for why it's amping things up like crazy with the convection going on in the south and why that probably isn't correct. I'd stick to the consensus 8-16" for much of ski territory in VT and hope the rain doesnt damage things too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Its going to snow... booo yeahhh. NYZ028-035-VTZ001>003-005-006-009-016>018-061100- /O.UPG.KBTV.WS.A.0006.110306T1800Z-110307T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KBTV.WS.W.0007.110306T1200Z-110307T1200Z/ EASTERN CLINTON-EASTERN ESSEX-GRAND ISLE-WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS- WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-WESTERN ADDISON-EASTERN FRANKLIN- EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLATTSBURGH...PORT HENRY... TICONDEROGA...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT... BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES... ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON 215 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WELL AS PARTS OF NORTHERN VERMONT. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 16 INCHES...ALONG WITH A TRACE OF ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. * TIMING...OCCASIONAL RAIN TONIGHT...WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES INTO MONDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...THE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES...ALONG WITH HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. * WINDS...BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE 20S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. * VISIBILITIES...BELOW ONE HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Its going to snow... booo yeahhh. NYZ028-035-VTZ001>003-005-006-009-016>018-061100- /O.UPG.KBTV.WS.A.0006.110306T1800Z-110307T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KBTV.WS.W.0007.110306T1200Z-110307T1200Z/ EASTERN CLINTON-EASTERN ESSEX-GRAND ISLE-WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS- WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-WESTERN ADDISON-EASTERN FRANKLIN- EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLATTSBURGH...PORT HENRY... TICONDEROGA...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT... BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES... ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON 215 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WELL AS PARTS OF NORTHERN VERMONT. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 16 INCHES...ALONG WITH A TRACE OF ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. * TIMING...OCCASIONAL RAIN TONIGHT...WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES INTO MONDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...THE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES...ALONG WITH HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. * WINDS...BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE 20S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. * VISIBILITIES...BELOW ONE HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES. Buried roof collapsing condo crushing power outing blue bomb enroute Freak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Buried roof collapsing condo crushing power outing blue bomb enroute Freak. I'm still concerned we get a lot of sleet or zr as we wait for the entire column to cool, but with the pcpn rates and large scale lift that is being progged, I think we should go over to a pounding heavy wet snow. 12z NAM which was the warmest model even had 22" for BTV but you can usually cut those model print-out numbers in half. Even so, 10" would be a nice way to finish off a rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 We were around in Stowe for a bit today and also did some skiing over at Cochran’s in Richmond, and aside from last night’s sleet and the bit of snow this morning, we’ve seen just a few rain showers. Looking at the Intellicast radar, the bulk of the precipitation seems to be hanging off to our west in New York State. I checked the rain/snow gauge here at the house and there’s not even a hundredth of an inch in it. As Powderfreak posted, the winter storm watches in this area have moved on to winter storm warnings, with 8 to 16 inches of snow mentioned. Checking the point forecast for the higher elevations around Mt. Mansfield tomorrow suggests a good shot of snow, with some continuing on into Monday night: Tonight: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 4am. Low around 32. Windy, with a south wind around 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Sunday: Snow. High near 32. Windy, with a south wind 28 to 31 mph decreasing to between 14 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible. Sunday Night: Snow. Low around 9. Wind chill values as low as -8. Breezy, with a south wind 10 to 13 mph increasing to between 18 and 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Monday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 25. Wind chill values as low as -9. South wind 11 to 17 mph becoming northwest. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Monday Night: A slight chance of snow before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -7. North wind between 8 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. We’re planning to be up at Stowe tomorrow afternoon for our usual Sunday ski program, but if things were to start changing over to snow early in the higher elevations like the point forecast suggests, we’d potentially head up earlier to catch the new snow. We’ve already had at least one parent who’s heard about 16-18” of snow potential, and called to ask if we were canceling tomorrow’s session. Travel concerns of course have to be taking into consideration, but this is Northern Vermont, and most people are going to be ready for this stuff. So I think we’re going with the policy that ski program will be on, and tomorrow morning people can watch the weather and decide how comfortable they are with the storm with regard to their vehicle/driving skills etc. There’s just something wrong about canceling skiing because of snow. Fortunately, it sounds like the valleys will be changing over to snow later than the high country. Our point forecast for down here in the Winooski Valley at ~500’, and the point forecast for various other valley spots in the area don’t suggest that the precipitation will change over to all snow until tomorrow evening. Once it does change over, the point forecast calls for 6 to 10 inches around here. Powderfreak, are you going to be reporting from the mountain at all tomorrow? I know you aren’t always working on weekends, but if you are up there early, try to send on what’s happening in terms of precipitation. I’m sure the snow report will be helpful, but any additional information will be useful and we can share that with parents. As long as everything goes OK in terms of travel, I’ll certainly send on a report about what we find on the mountain later in the day. I’ve added some of the updated BTV graphics below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 7pm. Just got home from spending the day in Mass. It was so nice to see grass and enjoy temps in the 50's. Driving home the past hour was really interesting. 50F up to Concord NH. Upper 40's to Tilton. Then about 5 miles north of Exit 20 on Rt 93 hit the cold air and temps dropped quickly to 34F in Bristol NH. I then headed up my hill 600 feet above the surrounding areas and temp shot up to 44.6F with a SW wind. So cold layer is very shallow in the Plymouth NH area. At my elevation the warm air broke through around 4-6:30pm with temps rising from the mid 30's to low 40's at that time. Temperature is continuing to rise slowly. Snow cover was around 75% in the Meuthen area of Mass. Snow depths started to build quickly north of Concord NH. Deep snow cover here in the lakes region and its very durable with a pretty thick ice layer on top since we never went over to rain in the last storm. 2-3" of rain and temps in the low to mid 40's will still not produce any bare ground up here. Wil be interesting to see which model will be right, GFS or NAM tomorrow but my guess is mostly rain with a couple of sloppy inches at the end even though we are in a WSW area. Gene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Just saw a bright fireball in the eastern sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Just saw a bright fireball in the eastern sky. Wow, and the sky is overcast too. Just spent 2 hours in the car driving up from Mass to NH and got out of the car 30 minutes ago. Must have just missed it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Wow, and the sky is overcast too. Just spent 2 hours in the car driving up from Mass to NH and got out of the car 30 minutes ago. Must have just missed it! It was surprising to see. I was sitting at my computer. I think it would have been over the Whites. Mybe north of Mt. Washington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 42F and the wind is ripping. Not sure if I trust the 8.6 inches BTV has predicted for us on their map. We'll see. In the meantime, my deck has shed the the icy coat of armor from last Monday. My driveway is a mess though. The snow that fell after the sleet/ice is gone and now it is worse than an ice skating rink. If we are going to get substantial snow, I hope the driveway gets down to gravel first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 21z srefs come in a tick colder than 15z but basically keeps the 0c 850 right smack dab over Lyndonville/St. J, VT...tough forecast for ne VT and N NH to say the least...confident we see 1.5" qpf with sub freezing BL temps, but the 850s could be the difference between 5" sleet and .5" ice, or 15" of snow and sleet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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