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NNE Winter Snow Thread II


dryslot

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This suggests sleet is very possible. I mean it's so borderline. If the precip is heavy though... IDK. Going to be wait and see.

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HYSPLIT? Isn't that lagrangian?

Anyways...when I said it's borderline I did look at the 825mb GFS temps...they're similar to 800mb. I know verbatim you're safe, but my point was just that if it verifies a little warmer it could make a huge difference.

The front is through here. I can hear the +RA hitting the north side windows.

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I'm actually cheering for an ice storm over a sleet fest. Although I'll take mostly sleet if I can pull off a miracle of 3"+ of snow on top.

38.4F

Still the strangest thing I ever had was two 3+ inch sleet storms within a month of each other back in NYC '07. Never really experienced an "ice" storm. Well not in the last 17 years anyway.

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Received 0.75 inches of rain today, and then the rain switched over to snow at 1:00 pm. There's 4 inches of new snow on the ground. I'm wondering if this part of Vermont is on its way to 20 inches of snow overnight. Vermont is stubbornly refusing to let go of winter and head into mud season. I suspect there'll be more than a few sugar makers repairing down sap lines tomorrow.

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There could be a pretty good ping zone near and nw of Brian tonight. As the low develops along the front, WAA should get going, which will limit the southward progression of the cooler air at 850 and 800mb. The surface front should still sink south.

There might be a thin band of really bad icing if the icing conditions can stay relatively stationary for about 8-10 hours. Duration is the key though...even if its coming down heavy, "only" 4-6 hours won't do it for horrible icing...probably would be getting bad, but not more than 3 or 4 tenths of accretion.

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Who works for the college? Staff, prof, administration? Allenson works here, and we've met up.

Present!

Still 32F here--hasn't dropped any in a while. Snow falling. About 1/2" so far. Wet & sticky snow, but snow still.

Regarding the temp fluctuations folks are seeing--same thing happened here before the front. 44, then 45, then 43 back up to 45, etc., etc.

45F was the tops here today...

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There might be a thin band of really bad icing if the icing conditions can stay relatively stationary for about 8-10 hours. Duration is the key though...even if its coming down heavy, "only" 4-6 hours won't do it for horrible icing...probably would be getting bad, but not more than 3 or 4 tenths of accretion.

Yeah it might be very thin, but significant....perhaps close to Brian or just to his nw..lol. The terrain is probably going to cause lots of mesoscale craziness with the winds draining north. Sometimes those n-s valleys up there are good at draining the cold south, through the Whites.

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There might be a thin band of really bad icing if the icing conditions can stay relatively stationary for about 8-10 hours. Duration is the key though...even if its coming down heavy, "only" 4-6 hours won't do it for horrible icing...probably would be getting bad, but not more than 3 or 4 tenths of accretion.

Other thing is that we'll need temps solidly below freezing to actually get accretion during the heavy rainfall rates. We'll see what happens, but '08 was a unique situation that was able to pull this off.

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Other thing is that we'll need temps solidly below freezing to actually get accretion during the heavy rainfall rates. We'll see what happens, but '08 was a unique situation that was able to pull this off.

What's the temp up your way? I wonder if you get a good deal of IP around there.

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+SN here @ 27F, 2" of accum so far. Trees are all plastered already.

The Mad River jammed up pretty good today. Impressive ice flow up to the guardrail on 100B just south of Middlesex. Apparently it did come over the road further south towards town...

AT 1259 PM EST...LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS AN ICE JAM ON THE MAD

RIVER NEAR MORETOWN HAS RESULTED IN THE RIVER GOING OVER BANKFULL

AND IMPACTING ROUTE 100B NEAR THE "S" CURVES. IN ADDITION...LAW

ENFORCEMENT REPORTS MUZZY ROAD NEAR NORTHFIELD IS CLOSED DUE TO ICE

JAM FLOODING.

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What's the temp up your way? I wonder if you get a good deal of IP around there.

Down to 34.6F now. There's really not all that much of a warm layer, so yeah, I think more in the way of a RN-IP situation is likely with maybe 3 hours of ZR in the middle.

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Nice. Probably a steady but perhaps slowing of cooling there. Have fun.

I'm hoping for some good icing!

Also during the heavier precip, probably some dynamic cooling will help turn us over to more IP

3-4" of sleet would be pretty amazing

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