dryslot Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Here we go.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 The 0z runs should be pretty important tonight to see if we can continue a SE trend for the monday event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Here we go.. did you say Here we Go Disclaimer: this video is not to indicate any allegiance to any football squad real or imaginary. I was merely looking for a video of the english football song but stumbled upon this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Max/min today was 31.5F/-2.3F. BML had a low of -21F...so cold, but nothing like what was progged. What was interesting is that 40B (Clayton Lake) fell to -28F so maybe the MAV temps would have been closer to verifying had the high/mid clouds not rolled in before sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Max/min today was 31.5F/-2.3F. BML had a low of -21F...so cold, but nothing like what was progged. What was interesting is that 40B (Clayton Lake) fell to -28F so maybe the MAV temps would have been closer to verifying had the high/mid clouds not rolled in before sunrise. I ended up going -7F for CON last night and -23F for BML. Not bad. Much warmer tonight...not really sure how much temps drop from here on out, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The forecast for down in the village at 800ft looks pretty interesting... talk about a long-duration precipitation event. BTV seems to be getting a lot more interested in the heavy snow potential. THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH HIGH IMPACT POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF MILDER TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND SNOW MELT WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO RISE ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ICE BREAK UPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED ICE JAMS TO FORM. IF ANY ICE JAMS FORM...YOU CAN EXPECT RAPID RISES...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS AND THE LATEST STATEMENTS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING THIS WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THE THREAT HAS INCREASED FOR A HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES...ALONG WITH AREAS OF DOWNED TREE LIMBS. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT IS FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS IN NEW YORK INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT OUR PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNT. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS ON THIS DEVELOPING AND POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT EVENT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Brutal torch for all of us on the 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Brutal torch for all of us on the 00z NAM. qpf not impressive either b/c of the wwd track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 hey, are either of you going to the Storm Conference in Taunton, MA next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 qpf not impressive either b/c of the wwd track. Maybe we can cut this to Toronto by verification time and end up with only a few tenths...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 hasn't the NAM consistently been the western outlier with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The forecast for down in the village at 800ft looks pretty interesting... talk about a long-duration precipitation event. BTV seems to be getting a lot more interested in the heavy snow potential. THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH HIGH IMPACT POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF MILDER TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND SNOW MELT WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO RISE ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ICE BREAK UPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED ICE JAMS TO FORM. IF ANY ICE JAMS FORM...YOU CAN EXPECT RAPID RISES...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS AND THE LATEST STATEMENTS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING THIS WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THE THREAT HAS INCREASED FOR A HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES...ALONG WITH AREAS OF DOWNED TREE LIMBS. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT IS FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS IN NEW YORK INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT OUR PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNT. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS ON THIS DEVELOPING AND POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT EVENT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. Dan Dowling on the Channel 3 news also mentioned the possibility of some significant accumulation with the flip starting early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattdWX Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I was up at Stowe today (south link trail), so the 4-7 feet of snow was quite fun, especially trying to break trail when the markers are at the top of the snow pack! The forecast for down in the village at 800ft looks pretty interesting... talk about a long-duration precipitation event. BTV seems to be getting a lot more interested in the heavy snow potential. THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH HIGH IMPACT POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF MILDER TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND SNOW MELT WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO RISE ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ICE BREAK UPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED ICE JAMS TO FORM. IF ANY ICE JAMS FORM...YOU CAN EXPECT RAPID RISES...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS AND THE LATEST STATEMENTS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING THIS WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THE THREAT HAS INCREASED FOR A HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES...ALONG WITH AREAS OF DOWNED TREE LIMBS. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT IS FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS IN NEW YORK INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT OUR PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNT. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS ON THIS DEVELOPING AND POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT EVENT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The forecast for down in the village at 800ft looks pretty interesting... talk about a long-duration precipitation event. BTV seems to be getting a lot more interested in the heavy snow potential. THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH HIGH IMPACT POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF MILDER TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND SNOW MELT WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO RISE ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ICE BREAK UPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED ICE JAMS TO FORM. IF ANY ICE JAMS FORM...YOU CAN EXPECT RAPID RISES...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS AND THE LATEST STATEMENTS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING THIS WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THE THREAT HAS INCREASED FOR A HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES...ALONG WITH AREAS OF DOWNED TREE LIMBS. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT IS FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS IN NEW YORK INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT OUR PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNT. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS ON THIS DEVELOPING AND POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT EVENT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. Did you see their storm total forecast map? That's some HEAVY wet upper elevation snows. It seems a little excessive to me BUT its certainly possible IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 A dusting of snow overnight. Much warmer than yesterday morning .. like 38° warmer. Was -10F at this time yesterday, currently 28.0F. A couple inches of rain in my forecast, good luck to western areas which seem to be the ptype battleground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 was a little stunned to not see us painted green this morning by BTV, but instead BLUE?! back hurts a little though from dodging bullet after bullet. should be fun to be out tomorrow. 24F, S wind still honking here this morning, a coating of freezing drizzle, not even worth scraping off the windows though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 30F and cloudy here, south wind stirring. Feels ominous out there. Headed out soon--meeting some friends at Smugglers, weather be damned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I was up at Stowe today (south link trail), so the 4-7 feet of snow was quite fun, especially trying to break trail when the markers are at the top of the snow pack! Nice! If BTV is anywhere close to right about 17" of wet heavy snow up there, by Tuesday you may not be able to find the trail markers anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Did you see their storm total forecast map? That's some HEAVY wet upper elevation snows. It seems a little excessive to me BUT its certainly possible IMO Yeah I did see that... I think there's a chance of that but we need the GFS to work out. The summit is going to sit near freezing throughout this entire event, probably just under, too... I can see a lot of ZR occurring up top there, too. Eitherway, this would be ridiculous: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 That's some HEAVY wet upper elevation snows. It seems a little excessive to me BUT its certainly possible IMO Thanks for that update adk, I’ve added in the BTV advisories map below. In terms of precipitation so far with this event we’ve just got a few sleet pellets in the rain gauge from last night, but light snow/flurries have broken out here as of the last 10 minutes or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hvysnow79 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 In terms of precipitation so far with this event we’ve just got a few sleet pellets in the rain gauge from last night, but light snow/flurries have broken out here as of the last 10 minutes or so. We have light snow and flurries starting here as well, temp is up to 33 already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 -SN and 28.7F. Hopefully the rainy torch is minimized. QPF looks insane for upstate NY and W/N NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 A dusting of snow overnight has given way to freezing rain. 30.0F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 -SN and 28.7F. Hopefully the rainy torch is minimized. QPF looks insane for upstate NY and W/N NE. Yeah that's gonna prime those areas down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 A dusting of snow overnight. Much warmer than yesterday morning .. like 38° warmer. Was -10F at this time yesterday, currently 28.0F. A couple inches of rain in my forecast, good luck to western areas which seem to be the ptype battleground. Looks to be the beginning of the end here. 2" rain is gonna hurt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 Well, If this storm is going to be west then it can keep going west and take the heavy precip with it, We shall see what happens over the next few model runs, -SN/RA mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The pattern after next week still looks good for NNE. Congrats on staying nude until April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Looks to be the beginning of the end here. 2" rain is gonna hurt I've accepted it. Seems that March 1-ish is when our snowpack reaches its zenith. After that it's the slow slide downhill. Not discounting future snow chances, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The pattern after next week still looks good for NNE. Congrats on staying nude until April. Yeah...I just need to get my mind off of the snow depth frame of mind and make the switch to annual snowfall. At least the truck will get cleaned off a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hvysnow79 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Yeah...I just need to get my mind off of the snow depth frame of mind and make the switch to annual snowfall. At least the truck will get cleaned off a bit. I was down in Mass on Wed and you could clearly pick my rig out of the rest in the parking lot, as they all had a good washing already . I guess it is time to give a good washing to our cars up here in NNE as well. It will be interesting to see where the snowpack is come Monday evening, starting at 29" right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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