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march 5-7 potential heavy rain event


earthlight

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Notwithstanding the flood talk, Upton has re-introduced the s word for Orange County, with a changeover there after midnight, and a WWA, based upon faster progression of CF through ne PA. KAVP has been holding at 34 for the past hour and KMSV has dropped to 41.

AS FOR WINTER WEATHER...COULD SEE SOME ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS

ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY. FRONT NOT FAR AWAY...AND KAVP DROPPED FROM

THE LOWER 50S TO THE 30S QUICKLY. COLDER AIR RUSHES IN LATER THIS

EVENING...WITH A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW/SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN

EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS SUCH...WINTER WX ADV POSTED FOR ORANGE

COUNTY. FOLLOWED NAM 2 METER TEMPS...AS LOW TEMPS WILL BE REACHED

VERY LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE SYSTEM. MOS GUIDANCE INCLUDING LAVS

DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT.

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Notwithstanding the flood talk, Upton has re-introduced the s word for Orange County, with a changeover there after midnight, and a WWA, based upon faster progression of CF through ne PA. KAVP has been holding at 34 for the past hour and KMSV has dropped to 41.

AS FOR WINTER WEATHER...COULD SEE SOME ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS

ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY. FRONT NOT FAR AWAY...AND KAVP DROPPED FROM

THE LOWER 50S TO THE 30S QUICKLY. COLDER AIR RUSHES IN LATER THIS

EVENING...WITH A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW/SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN

EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS SUCH...WINTER WX ADV POSTED FOR ORANGE

COUNTY. FOLLOWED NAM 2 METER TEMPS...AS LOW TEMPS WILL BE REACHED

VERY LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE SYSTEM. MOS GUIDANCE INCLUDING LAVS

DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT.

yes, classic march setup for the hudson valley, orange county looking good for tonight

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Cold is more pronounced with each model run. North and west of city could see a changeover tomorrow morning if trends continue.

Even coast can see wet flurries.

That would be more exciting then this 2" of rain.

P.S. This type of rain has almost no flooding potential for city and LI.

Stream areas to the west, yes.

But not in city.

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Cold is more pronounced with each model run. North and west of city could see a changeover tomorrow morning if trends continue.

Even coast can see wet flurries.

That would be more exciting then this 2" of rain.

P.S. This type of rain has almost no flooding potential for city and LI.

Stream areas to the west, yes.

But not in city.

It would almost take a tropical system or training thunderstorms to cause flooding in the city. Nobody is saying the city east is going to flood hence why they are not in the flood watch and NJ is.

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It would almost take a tropical system or training thunderstorms to cause flooding in the city. Nobody is saying the city east is going to flood hence why they are not in the flood watch and NJ is.

Yeah. Quick hitting training thunderstorms have most impact. The April nor'easter a couple years ago that dropped 8" of rain, didn't really flood city area too bad.

PA and parts of NJ yes. But there is a separate region for that area.

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Yeah. Quick hitting training thunderstorms have most impact. The April nor'easter a couple years ago that dropped 8" of rain, didn't really flood city area too bad.

PA and parts of NJ yes. But there is a separate region for that area.

Not a fair generalization. There is a good area of NJ that is within the NYC Metro area that could see flooding from this event.

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Yeah. Quick hitting training thunderstorms have most impact. The April nor'easter a couple years ago that dropped 8" of rain, didn't really flood city area too bad.

PA and parts of NJ yes. But there is a separate region for that are

There is a conflict of interest in this thread because from the city east where most people live in this forum, this is a minor to no impact event. For those of us in the western Upton zones, this is a high impact event if you live in a flood prone area. It's just like when 40 miles west of the city is forecast to get snow and the city rain, nobody in this forum gives a crap.

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Not a fair generalization. There is a good area of NJ that is within the NYC Metro area that could see flooding from this event.

Yeah. Wasn't implying there isn't.

Just that PA and western Jersey have a much bigger impact from this type of storm.

But yes, some areas in this region, will be impacted from stream flooding and bad drainage areas.

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There was thunder when the front came through here at 5:35pm, 20 minutes ago. The temperature has dropped from 51.6 at 5:35pm to 44.6 at 5:58pm. Or 7 degrees in about 20 minutes.

Also note the 13 degree (F) drop at KRDG between 5:15 and 5:54pm.

KRDG 062254Z 33014G19KT 2 1/2SM +RA BR BKN001 OVC008 06/05 A2970 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3 PRESRR SLP061 P0031 T00560050

KRDG 062251Z 34012G19KT 2 1/2SM +RA BR BKN001 OVC008 06/05 A2970 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3 P0029

KRDG 062244Z 36011G19KT 5SM +RA BR SCT001 OVC008 07/06 A2968 RMK AO2 CIG 006V010 P0024

KRDG 062215Z 00000KT 3SM RA BR OVC001 13/12 A2968 RMK AO2 P0016

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Down to 43.0 now

Also note the 13 degree (F) drop at KRDG between 5:15 and 5:54pm.

KRDG 062254Z 33014G19KT 2 1/2SM +RA BR BKN001 OVC008 06/05 A2970 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3 PRESRR SLP061 P0031 T00560050

KRDG 062251Z 34012G19KT 2 1/2SM +RA BR BKN001 OVC008 06/05 A2970 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3 P0029

KRDG 062244Z 36011G19KT 5SM +RA BR SCT001 OVC008 07/06 A2968 RMK AO2 CIG 006V010 P0024

KRDG 062215Z 00000KT 3SM RA BR OVC001 13/12 A2968 RMK AO2 P0016

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Temperature dropped more than 11 degrees in the hour since the front came through with thunder. Temperature was 51.6 at 5:35pm when the front came through. One hour later now at 6:35pm it is 39.9.

52 to 40 in one hour. Not bad.

the frontal location matches well with the 18z nam

f06.gif

nj.sfc.gif

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