IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 We shall see how quickly the rivers respond. The rain should fall rather quickly so rises should be steep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Impressive for a low res mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 0Z GFS looks like it might not be quite as bullish with the QPF as earlier, but still impressive nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 It's' still well over an inch in the flood watch area and fits into Upton's 1-2" with higher amounts possible forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 If the low ends up passing us a tad further SE than progged, we might not get dry slotted as some of the guidance is indicating. 00z GFS shows the low right over NYC at hr 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 GGEM more or less held serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Trend this evening so far has to bring the low further SE and up the QPF alittle more. But still falling in the 1-2"+ range..RGEM, RUC, and the SREFS are pretty bullish. We'll see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Trend this evening so far has to bring the low further SE and up the QPF alittle more. But still falling in the 1-2"+ range..RGEM, RUC, and the SREFS are pretty bullish. We'll see what happens SREF's very bullish, did you see the large 2" 24hr accumulated totals over the flood watch area? It's going to be a real mess about 24hrs from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 SREF's very bullish, did you see the large 2" 24hr accumulated totals over the flood watch area? It's going to be a real mess about 24hrs from now. yeah impressive, not to mention the cutoff low the gfs is advertising for late next week. That drops copius amounts of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 00z GFS would almost be a doomsday scenario. I doubt it verifies but some models have been suggesting a scary scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 http://ruc.noaa.gov/rucnew/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=ruc7t:&runTime=2011030603&plotName=cref_sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=25&model=ruc&ptitle=RUCModelFields&maxFcstLen=24&resizePlot=1&domain=full&wjet=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2011 Author Share Posted March 6, 2011 SPC WRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2011 Author Share Posted March 6, 2011 NAM is wetter again at 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 NAM is wetter again at 06z Crushes GFL-ART upstate..some areas would easily exceed 20" snowfall. Just a ridiculously powerful storm, and incredibly slow-moving. Capital District is right on the line between heavy snow and rain. Should be some great skiing in the Dacks in the next couple weeks. Winter has shifted north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 9z SREF going wetter across our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Based on the progress of the front, looks like Orange County, NY has the potential to see some freezing rain after about 10 PM tonight. It's a bit bizarre that Sullivan County (immediately NW of Orange County) has a winter weather advisory for 3-6" of snow, while the Orange County forecast is for rain with a "slight chance" of snow mixing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 12z GFS is very impressive with QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 12z GFS is very impressive with QPF Yeah,it's continuing the wetter trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 .43 inches already. 52.3 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 http://www.whiteface...untain/cams.php Nice snowstorm going on up there, and they still have a long way to go. I guess they end up with ~18"+(mid mountain-peak). It'll be fun to watch either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 High res came in very, very wet, probably overdone but if we see a widespread 2.5"-3" the rivers will all reach flood stage later tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 http://www.whiteface...untain/cams.php Nice snowstorm going on up there, and they still have a long way to go. I guess they end up with ~18"+(mid mountain-peak). It'll be fun to watch either way. Impressive 1hr temperature fall recorded at Glens Falls this past hour..from 49f to 35f http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KGFL.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2011 Author Share Posted March 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Looks like being a very wet day for this region, though the worst of the rains are probably going to end up a little further north there are some pretty intense bands embedded within the front working thier way up that could well give some very heavy rain for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 trends continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Quite Frankly, this flood talk is over the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Quite Frankly, this flood talk is over the top. nah, four posts about it from the same poster on each page of this thread and a few from said poster in other threads not related to this event is hardly over the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 nah, four posts about it from the same poster on each page of this thread and a few from said poster in other threads not related to this event is hardly over the top. This post was worded awkwardly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 This post was worded awkwardly agree. Feel free to quote edit it for me and make it better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2011 Author Share Posted March 6, 2011 The NAM has been atrocious with this event and again has folded to the further east GFS. This is the third storm in a row we've seen this happen. The GFS has had this surface low well to the east of the NAM the entire time from 84 hours on in. Even up to this mornings runs, the NAM had the low tracking west of NYC. The 18z run has adjusted well to the east and now takes the low over LI and SE SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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