earthlight Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 The GFS Ensembles are awful to use for QPF, in general. Highly unreliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 The Ukmet is a far SE deamplified outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 The GFS Ensembles are awful to use for QPF, in general. Highly unreliable. Not using them in terms of QPF totals, just that they support the heavier QPF over our region vs to our west like the NAM would indicate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Euro QPF. Euro has 1.8" of rain for LGA. Everyone is 1.75"-2.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Hard to tell basis the 24hr incriments on e-wall but the EC looks like it agrees pretty well with the GFS as far as track goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Euro QPF. Euro has 1.8" of rain for LGA. Everyone is 1.75"-2.25" ok, that's slighty less than the 12z GFS op. Few more details to iron out but a general comprimise of 2"+ seems to be in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 A 1-3" rainfall seems reasonable right now, it would be enough to cause some flooding problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 A 1-3" rainfall seems reasonable right now, it would be enough to cause some flooding problems. don't say that phrase, you will get stoned by the natives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 New NAM looks quicker with the southern stream than 12z. Hopefully were moving towards some sort of consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Here's to hoping that central LI is the snowhole, sleet capital of the world for the next decade Burn this man, get the tar and feathers ready, how dare you wish this........men with torches to gather at midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Burn this man, get the tar and feathers ready, how dare you wish this........men with torches to gather at midnight lmao, that guy insists on trolling my posts so I wished the worst possible weather disaster I could think of on him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 New NAM is still well west of GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 looks like the NAM basically stalls just like the 12z GFS except about 100 miles further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 QPF for our region is still not as high as the GFS or the EC but it's much wetter than its prior run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Strange to see the NAM drier than others--anyone got the total precip map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Strange to see the NAM drier than others--anyone got the total precip map? Its not that much drier. NAM has close to 1.75" of QPF for NYC. A little less then Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Despite a track to our west and then our south, the QPF is just a tad under the GFS/EC consensus.....the timing was definitly quicker on this run and I suspect that were moving towards a consensus of 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Boy, tracking these rainstorms brings back bad memories of the 2007-08 winter and to some extent 2008-09. The past several weeks have been the complete reverse of the front half of winter -- utterly, borderline painfully boring pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Upton updated again with big increases across the board. Mt. Holly FWIW said in there AFD that if 2.0-2.5" falls area wide in north NJ, basins such as the Passaic River would likely hit flood stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Boy, tracking these rainstorms brings back bad memories of the 2007-08 winter and to some extent 2008-09. The past several weeks have been the complete reverse of the front half of winter -- utterly, borderline painfully boring pattern. 2008-09 was a good winter here, not at all similar to the painfully sordid affair we suffered in 07-08. 45" on the season with two storms of 8"+ and an Arctic outbreak with highs in the mid teens is solid for Westchester; it wasn't a blockbuster because we didn't have the huge coastals, but for those in northern sections of the CWA, there are plenty of fond memories of the 08-09 winter. A lot of the SW flow events were highly latitude dependent so I wouldn't be surprised if your area only got 1-3" whereas I got 4-6" in Westchester, such as the 1/28 storm. Very sharp contrast with Central Park only at 28" that winter and DC in the single digits. Vermont got buried of course... We just can't seem to get the NAO back into its negative state; the low heights over Baffin Island and Northern Canada have been there since mid-February and aren't moving quickly. We have another PV forecasted to come into Canada but the GoA low underneath the big Aleutian ridge/block isn't allowing that vortex to penetrate far enough south to influence our pattern. We're seeing a very 07-08 like pattern with colder than normal temperatures over Canada not impacting the East Coast because the Bermuda High is so well established and storms keep tracking to our west. It's going to be a difficult regime to break since the storm track is normally further north anyway in March, so there's not much room for improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 early on, it looks like the northern stream is digging more on the new GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 seems to be some significant changes aloft through 36hrs. we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 End result ends up being a faster northern stream S/W which doesn't allow the secondary wave to get going as quickly or as far south. End result for our region is a tad less QPF/tad more progressive solution which just undercuts the 2.0-2.5" general consensus from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 0z NAM dry. Barely .50" for NYC. LI is only .25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 0z NAM dry. Barely .50" for NYC. LI is only .25". noreaster85 promised 2-3 inches of rain. He has been tracking it for days. This happened last week too. Without a stj or split flow, you aren't going to see these ridiculous amounts, especially in a progressive system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 noreaster85 promised 2-3 inches of rain. He has been tracking it for days. This happened last week too. Without a stj or split flow, you aren't going to see these ridiculous amounts, especially in a progressive system. yes, or a lack of a closed-cutoff low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 let's wait to see the rest of the 0z guidance before everyone starts to hug models. The NAM has been on the progressive side for days with a few slower outlier runs here and there. I would think that the 12z runs tommorrow will be the most important. And troll, I mean trials, you might want to check that run again because NYC is right around 0.75" on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 2008-09 was a good winter here, not at all similar to the painfully sordid affair we suffered in 07-08. 45" on the season with two storms of 8"+ and an Arctic outbreak with highs in the mid teens is solid for Westchester; it wasn't a blockbuster because we didn't have the huge coastals, but for those in northern sections of the CWA, there are plenty of fond memories of the 08-09 winter. A lot of the SW flow events were highly latitude dependent so I wouldn't be surprised if your area only got 1-3" whereas I got 4-6" in Westchester, such as the 1/28 storm. Very sharp contrast with Central Park only at 28" that winter and DC in the single digits. Vermont got buried of course... We just can't seem to get the NAO back into its negative state; the low heights over Baffin Island and Northern Canada have been there since mid-February and aren't moving quickly. We have another PV forecasted to come into Canada but the GoA low underneath the big Aleutian ridge/block isn't allowing that vortex to penetrate far enough south to influence our pattern. We're seeing a very 07-08 like pattern with colder than normal temperatures over Canada not impacting the East Coast because the Bermuda High is so well established and storms keep tracking to our west. It's going to be a difficult regime to break since the storm track is normally further north anyway in March, so there's not much room for improvement. 2008-09 was about a normal winter here, finished with 29.5". Had the SECS in early Feb then the March 2nd MECS which was pretty nice. Overall though, Dec and Jan had too many SW flow events with 1-3" snows changing to ZR then cold rain. And snow cover in January was basically a trace, in contrast to better depths just to our north. Certainly a good improvement from 07-08 but still on the boring side. I guess I'm getting spoiled though, a 30" winter is boring to me now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 It's looking now like the northern stream wants to partially phase with the southern stream S/W instead of the northern stream outrunning it like it has been doing for the most part on prior runs. We will have to wait and see if this idea continues into the runs tommorrow. Of course this solution brings the low to our west and we don't get in on the massive amounts of QPF, It's not that the models have backed off on QPF in general so far tonight, its the timing of the two streams leading to the changes aloft and the resulting track and intensity of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 let's wait to see the rest of the 0z guidance before everyone starts to hug models. The NAM has been on the progressive side for days with a few slower outlier runs here and there. I would think that the 12z runs tommorrow will be the most important. And troll, I mean trials, you might want to check that run again because NYC is right around 0.75" on this NAM is .63". This is on text soundings. GFS is about .75" but haven't seen text output yet. Regardless, That is a massive cut in rain from 12z, which had 2-2.50". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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