tornadojay Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 03Z Monday.. very heavy QPF over central southern NJ... Bullseye right over Philly. Freezing line from KBGM to KALB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 wow.. GFS destroys us with massive QPF over the next 6 hours past that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I find it peculiar that it is crashing 2M temps lower than 850 temps. There must be a due north wind trying to drain colder air at the surface according to the GFS.. I would have expected 850 temps to crash lower than surface temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 2.00-2.50" area wide, thats about what I was expecting, and to be honest, based on the 6hr totals, and the low basically stalling just to our SE I would think the QPF totals could even be higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 depending on the 00z guidance, I would expect flash flood watches to be hoisted early AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 What do March showers bring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 What do March showers bring? Floods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 still major differences with the NAM, but it seems to split the difference between its faster prior run and the slower NAM. This is probably a good comprimise. Again, I think QPF could easily be higher than whats shown here, the 6hr accumulated amounts are over an inch for several time frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Internally, I am cursing at the Greenland Block, saying "WTH are you?!?!" overall, this a pretty impressive rain event for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 there is very impressive jet dynamics with this system.. we are in a perfect spot within right entrance region and in a region of upper diffluence... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 The lower resolution of the GFS might be why the QPF numbers are not as high as I would have expected. Put the same run on the NAM and we probably show 3.5"+ easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 BTW.. next week's system looks eerily similar... upper flow parallels the surface front, so it's gonna be another slow mover... this is a well-phased system.. I think this one has the signature to bring quite a bit of severe weather to the south next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 depending on the 00z guidance, I would expect flash flood watches to be hoisted early AM. You would issue a flood watch in the desert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 wow.. GFS crushes us again with massive QPF amounts for next week... still very far out, but this system looks like it has a lot potential to do some damage.. it looks very potent.... again very impressive jet dynamics too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Jay, if only we had blocking and a decent PNA.... We will be talking Boxing Day totals around here. 20-30"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Are we getting wind with this storm too, or just heavy rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 You would issue a flood watch in the desert dude, the QPF is clearly there....why do people troll those that like to see massive amounts of QPF, it's a rare weather phenomenon that I find interesting. It actually sounds like your bitter because were having a high QPF event and its all going to be wet instead of white. Bring on seasonal snowfall totals of 6" next year and I wouldn't care after the last two winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Jay, if only we had blocking and a decent PNA.... We will be talking Boxing Day totals around here. 20-30"+. yea.. the Pacific looks like garbage right now and unfortunately there isn't any good blocking... what's interesting is the models are showing a very strong representation of the PV up in northern Canada next week with 474 thicknesses. The Western Atlanctic is the only saving grace.. at least in terms of getting significant precip into our area.. obviously it's not snow, but there is essentially a massive ridge forcing everything to slow down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 yea.. the Pacific looks like garbage right now and unfortunately there isn't any good blocking... what's interesting is the models are showing a very strong representation of the PV up in northern Canada next week with 474 thicknesses. The Western Atlanctic is the only saving grace.. at least in terms of getting significant precip into our area.. obviously it's not snow, but there is essentially a massive ridge forcing everything to slow down Yeah, I am pretty impressed at the QPF output given lack of true subtropical jet we would see in a El Nino, but the Polar Jet is very strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Yeah, I am pretty impressed at the QPF output given lack of true subtropical jet we would see in a El Nino, but the Polar Jet is very strong. yes.. the key ingredient with this system and next week in our area is definitely the massive blocking ridge over the Atlanctic.. no doubt about it. It is forcing the trofs to go negatively tilted and inducing an impressive amount of dynamics and lift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 someone mentioned in the NE thread that JB thinks the GFS is still too far east with the second wave, lol which probably means the GFS is correct as is and were going to get smoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 if you look at the global models.. there is actually a massive block pattern over most of Europe. There is a huge blocking upper low currently over spain and portugal that is forecasted to retrograde about 500 miles off the coast of Spain and Portugal and sit there for a while.. it's causing a massive ridge to form over most of the Atlantic and Europe and everything is being forced north of that.. so I think this whole setup in Europe is impacting our weather in a big way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 dude, the QPF is clearly there....why do people troll those that like to see massive amounts of QPF, it's a rare weather phenomenon that I find interesting. It actually sounds like your bitter because were having a high QPF event and its all going to be wet instead of white. Bring on seasonal snowfall totals of 6" next year and I wouldn't care after the last two winters. maybe, maybe not--how many busts have we seen with GFS and NAM overdoing totals...not saying it's not going to happen, but still skeptical right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 dude, the QPF is clearly there....why do people troll those that like to see massive amounts of QPF, it's a rare weather phenomenon that I find interesting. It actually sounds like your bitter because were having a high QPF event and its all going to be wet instead of white. Bring on seasonal snowfall totals of 6" next year and I wouldn't care after the last two winters. You sure do know how to go off on a tangent, floodsy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 You sure do know how to go off on a tangent, floodsy. Here's to hoping that central LI is the snowhole, sleet capital of the world for the next decade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 New CMC is west of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 almost every GFS ensemble member wants to bring the freezing line through our region around hr 72, unfortuantly that's right as the precip is leaving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 almost every GFS ensemble member wants to bring the freezing line through our region around hr 72, unfortuantly that's right as the precip is leaving. You forgot to mention nogaps, jma and ukie. Please keep us updated. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 Sunday is going to be a warm one if the NAM is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 they also seem to support the op well in terms of QPF placement and timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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