nzucker Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I got six from that norlun event in 2009, and i remember the bitter cold temps for a few days after that storm. Its been a very long time that i have not seen 2 inches of snow in febuary, in a nut shell this febuary has suck imby. As we go foward into march nate its over, nina has taken over and just pre-pare for a very wet spring.... Yes, I remember that we had several mornings in the single digits in early February 2009, but Dobbs Ferry only had 3.5" from the Norlun and then 1.5" from the SW flow event later in the month. February 2009 was a poor snow month for Westchester County after a reasonably snowy December and January....finished with 45" that winter with the 10" storm on March 2nd our biggest for 08-09. February 2011 wasn't terrible for me...I had 8" with the overrunning event and 2" with the 2/2 SW flow event; that's probably slightly below average snowfall but not terrible after a blockbuster January. I understand it was worse for those further south, especially in Central NJ that got split by the two events. Most of our snowy Marches have come in La Niña...1956, 1960, 1967, 1996, etc...I understand the discouragement given that the last few winters have ended on a sour note, but I'm not completely prepared to surrender. With Canada being well below average in temperature and an active storm track, I can't rule out one or two more snowfalls. Our climatology is perhaps a bit different, but I think it would be rare for either of us to see our final accumulating snow on 2/21. Even last winter we had an inch or two in March, and we've had several Marches with 15" or more, including 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 LOL, really? extrapolating nam precip at 84 hours? this model has a terrible qpf bias as it is, let alone being pretty much a random number generator after 48 hours. gfs just came in not that wet with its new run. did you even read what I wrote? I said its hard to tell what kind of QPF would result but that the low is in a good position and that the simulated radar is impressive. WHO CARES HOW MUCH QPF OUTPUT IT SHOWS NOW.....again, I'm looking at important factors like the positioning and tilt of the trough. You cann't compare the GFS with the NAM since the solutions are different as someone already stated but with the intensity of the precip its showing, one could argue that the eventual QPF should have been higher than what it shows. The GFS is more progressive than the NAM which is resulting in some of differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 GFS has a massive cutoff low with more heay rain from hrs 165 - 186. It's going to be a rainy month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Bring on summer and the dry season, cold and rainy does nothing for me. Unfortunately, its nina spring, so we will be stuck in this pattern through April, maybe beyond. we saw how using blanket nina climo worked for this january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Yeah these temps are pretty impressive today. I'm 26.5F with a light NLY wind under full sun in early March. 11 am obs. HUDSON VALLEY CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS NEWBURGH SUNNY 21 -4 33 N12G18 30.66F WCI 9 MONTGOMERY SUNNY 21 0 39 VRB5 30.65S WCI 15 POUGHKEEPSIE SUNNY 20 -3 36 NE6 30.68F WCI 12 ALBANY SUNNY 15 -6 39 N6 30.71S WCI 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 we saw how using blanket nina climo worked for this january Yes, except nina is clearly dominating right now. Shouldn't speak in absolutes for sure however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 if you're looking into the longer range, there is some potential for some warmer temps/torch around Day 10 as indicated by the global ensembles this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Just incase you thought the models were close to converging on a solution for early next week, here is the NCEP ensemble spread from 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 was that map drawn in kindergarten paint pros? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 if you're looking into the longer range, there is some potential for some warmer temps/torch around Day 10 as indicated by the global ensembles this morning. Talk about a miserable lack of blocking, that trough just settled into Greenland/Baffin Island and got stuck. Really been a Jekyll+Hyde winter, tale of two winters. Who could have imagined an H5 map that progressive looking in December? We'll see if this is a long-term trend towards the blocky pattern ending or just a brief interlude. It may depend on whether El Niño comes back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 was that map drawn in kindergarten paint pros? lmao, yeah its quite a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 lots and lots of spread still amongst the various GFS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 lmao, yeah its quite a mess That's the best looking map I've seen since Snowlover123's snowfall accumulation map for the boxing day storm.. Here is a reminder of what that masterpiece looked like. I had to save a copy of it.. absolutely brilliant! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 hmmm.. 12Z euro is very interesting at 96 and 102.. it actually has accumulating snow not too far west of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 About 2"+ for everyone on the 12z euro of rain that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Yes, it looks quite a bit like two previous runs of the GFS from a couple of days ago that slammed NW NJ but it has the precip a little further east and colder than the GFS. Has mixed precip and maybe accumulating snows into NW NJ. hmmm.. 12Z euro is very interesting at 96 and 102.. it actually has accumulating snow not too far west of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 KPOU to KALB would be a major hit with this run.. looks like 6 inches easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Has light snow for the ENTIRE area by Monday afternoon, possibly accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Off soundings, euro has 2.37" of qpf as rain for LGA, thru Monday at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 New EC has a completely different solution again.............and we should trust this model because? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 it definitely does have a pretty decent deformation band forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 New EC has a completely different solution again.............and we should trust this model because? 2.62" of rain thru Monday 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 New EC has a completely different solution again.............and we should trust this model because? lets trust it because it might be the only shred of hope to hang onto for snow for the rest of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 lets trust it because it might be the only shred of hope to hang onto for snow for the rest of this winter. Not bad for inland areas. For coast, theres only .05"-.09" of precip left when its cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Not bad for inland areas. For coast, theres only .05"-.09" of precip left when its cold enough. yea, it is actually extremely good for inland areas, but i wonder if the QPF is overdone.. it looks cold enough for a heavy wet snow from the mid hudson valley northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 yea, it is actually extremely good for inland areas, but i wonder if the QPF is overdone.. it looks cold enough for a heavy wet snow from the mid hudson valley northward. Even Allentown is cold enough for snow. Text soundings I have show over .50" of qpf as snow for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 With that big high to the east,the slower Euro progression looks like it makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I still think for most of our region, heavy rain looks to be the primary threat. I went after the Euro for its < 0.75" QPF totals on the 00z run and I'm going to stick to my guns and say its suspect because of the large run to run differences. Of course I love its solution in many ways but we shouldn't hug this run because quite frankly, its a big outlier especially with regards to temperature profiles. Question for the mets? Does the GFS still have a progressive bias? I wonder if that's part of the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I think the important thing to remember is that the GFS showed a very similar solution twice already a couple of days ago. One thing I have learned from reading the models over the years is that it is not particularly easy for two different models to produce two very similar solutions for the same potential event on different runs on different days. Often when this happens there is something to it. Also, the Euro is by far the best model is this time range. What interests me the most is the potential for possibly heavy snow on the far NW fringe of this system, especially if the precipitation is really that heavy, possibly there would be dynamic cooling as well. This could be really interesting. I still think for most of our region, heavy rain looks to be the primary threat. I went after the Euro for its < 0.75" QPF totals on the 00z run and I'm going to stick to my guns and say its suspect because of the large run to run differences. Of course I love its solution in many ways but we shouldn't hug this run because quite frankly, its a big outlier especially with regards to temperature profiles. Question for the mets? Does the GFS still have a progressive bias? I wonder if that's part of the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 it's definitely a thread the needle situation for heavy, wet snow for the areas well north and west of NYC.... looks like a pretty good lock up in northern new england for some decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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