Tropical Storm/Hurricane probability for are

[LongIslandHurricanes]

This is from the landfalling hurricane probability project

For this year(2011) the probability of Tropical storm/Hurricane hitting region 10(NY/Long Island to Mass)

Named storm--25.9

Hurricane---15.9

Major---7.8

For Storm hitting particullar county

Suffolk

Named storm---9.7

Hurricane---5.7

Major---2.7

Nassau

Named--2.1

Hurricane---1.2

Major---0.6

Queens

Named---0.8

Hurricane---0.5

Major---0.2

Kings

Named---0.4

Hurricane---0.2

Major---0.1

Richmond

Named---0.9

Hurricane---0.5

Major---0.2

Westchester

Named---0.7

Hurricane---0.4

Major---0.2

Bronx

Named---0.5

Hurricane---0.3

Major---0.1

Region 10 to be hit with gust to tropical storm force--21.1

" "Hurricane Force-----6.8

" "Major Hurricane force115mph+---2.1

this is from Sunyuffolk.edu

Normal probability of a Hurricane or Tropical Storm hiting NYC/Long Island .in any given year is 15%

Normal probability of a Hurricane hitting NYC/Long Island .in any given year is 9%

Normal probability of a Major Hurricane hitting NYC/Long Island .in any given year is 4%

>99.9% probability that NY City/Long Island will be hit with a tropical storm or hurricane in the next 50 years.

99.4% probability that NY City/Long Island will be hit with a hurricane in the next 50 years.

90% probability that NY City/Long Island will be hit with a major hurricane (category 3 or more) in the next 50 years

A major obstacle to overcome is public complacency. Approximately 78.5% of current New York State coastal residents have never experienced a major hurricane (Hughes). One must remember that in 1938, Long Island was mostly undeveloped. The next time a major hurricane hits, it will be impacting a highly-urbanized region. The last two hurricanes were mild in comparison to the Great Hurricane of 1938. August 19, 1991, Hurricane Bob (category 2) brushed the eastern tip of Long Island and moved into southeastern New England. Because most of Long Island was on the western side of the storm, winds were category 1 strength and the storm surge was minimal

[Cfa]

Wow these odds are sort of high there.Interesting how Staten Island has a slightly higher (negligible) chance of being hit with a named storm than Queens which faces the ocean, and Nassau County's chances are drastically higher than Queens's. But in reality a Hurricane wouldn't discriminate, if it hits anywhere in our region we're all gonna feel it.