Chicago Storm Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Just a typical Goofus run tonight.... Alright, DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Alright, DT. I'm better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 No you're not. Your predictions are worse then people who predict the Cubs to win the world series. Stuff that totally won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 No you're not. Your predictions are worse then people who predict the Cubs to win the world series. Stuff that totally won't happen. Go to bed... my **** has been right on with this storm.. look back in last thread of this storm. when a storm is worth honking about you will see me caring in a thread.. hmmm, since feb 2nd I could care less about any storm thread started. I would be a great addition to the mke office in winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 next winter...cross cuntry skiing. better winter hobby than this **** horse**** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Giant fail on my schools part...they closed school due to freezing rain...but they didn't close it until AFTER everyone had already left their house to drive there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 hoping we can fall into the heavy rain band tonight, i'd love a good soaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 This storm exemplifies perfectly how pointless looking at the GEFS can be. When the OP GFS was had a multiple storm scenario, the GEFS showed likewise. Now that the GFS has become one of the more progressive models, the GEFS show likewise. Not sure how mimicking the OP is useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 ROADS ARE A NIGHTMARE THIS MORNING IN SEMI!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 prety bad freezing rain here this morning along M59 and I75. Almost all freeways were closed at some point due to accidents, a few fatal. Was about 2 hours late for work. Crazy what 15 minutes of freezing rain can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 ROADS ARE A NIGHTMARE THIS MORNING IN SEMI!!! Dry IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 12z NAM has LAF caught between the heavier bands of rain, one northwest and one south/southeast. Good for us, bad for southern IN into OH though where they don't need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 This could potentially be a major snowstorm for eastern Ohio... stay tuned. The latest models take a slow-moving low and move it up the spine of the Apps with copious moisture. The NAM clown maps were indicating 20"+. A good match as I said in another thread might be the April 2, 2005 storm. Although, I see some parallels with other spring snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 This could potentially be a major snowstorm for eastern Ohio... stay tuned. The latest models take a slow-moving low and move it up the spine of the Apps with copious moisture. The NAM clown maps were indicating 20"+. A good match as I said in another thread might be the April 2, 2005 storm. Although, I see some parallels with other spring snowstorms. Only the old NAM does that. Everything else is way east. And the 12z NAM is going to be east as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Only the old NAM does that. Everything else is way east. And the 12z NAM is going to be east as well. Oh, you're right. I must have looked at the NAM and then looked at the NAM again and thought it was the GFS. Although, I don't know if the 12z run is going east. It looks to me like it's going to depict a west track again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 The NAM and GFS are both showing the cold air trying hard to get wrapped into the storm in Central Michigan just as the heavy precip is passing through. If it could just move in a little bit faster, we could get quite the little snow event here. I've seen it happen with many early spring storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Oh, you're right. I must have looked at the NAM and then looked at the NAM again and thought it was the GFS. Although, I don't know if the 12z run is going east. alcoholism FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 12z NAM with a nice southern stream s/w, that's in the process of going neg tilt, but without more interaction from the northern stream, there's only so far west it can be pulled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I'd prefer that storm go way OTS than have what the NAM's doing verify. Uncivilized cruelty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Its a horrible morning on the roads in SE MI, already one fatality. http://www.freep.com/article/20110304/NEWS05/110304006/Freezing-rain-causes-treacherous-road-conditions-fatal-wreck?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|FRONTPAGE http://detnews.com/article/20110304/METRO/103040407/Freezing-rain--spin-outs-bring-highways-to-a-crawl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 ROADS ARE A NIGHTMARE THIS MORNING IN SEMI!!! Just up in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 RGEM and NAM are almost identical at H5, sfc, thermally, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 yeah RGEM took a pretty big step towards the NAM but the NAM trough was not as impressive as last nights peak run. if it continues to compromise towards the euro, the storm would pass east. need the euro to become a whole lot more involved today. but defintely all the models seem to be moving towards that southern piece. thats what we needed to make this interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 yeah RGEM took a pretty big step towards the NAM but the NAM trough was not as impressive as last nights peak run. if it continues to compromise towards the euro, the storm would pass east. need the euro to become a whole lot more involved today. but defintely all the models seem to be moving towards that southern piece. thats what we needed to make this interesting. Well, I liked it better when some of the models were showing more phasing earlier with the southern wave. At this point my options are do I get whiffed by a little or a lot. I'd probably take the latter if given the option (12z GFS looks pretty unimpressive). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 It appears the HRRR is down due to computer problems at NOAA http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 12z NAM with a nice southern stream s/w, that's in the process of going neg tilt, but without more interaction from the northern stream, there's only so far west it can be pulled. Yes, the southern wave has trended slower since the 00z runs but that actually spells less phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 12z NAM has LAF caught between the heavier bands of rain, one northwest and one south/southeast. Good for us, bad for southern IN into OH though where they don't need it. Models have been waffling with the placement of the heaviest band, but we'll have to watch it. From a river standpoint, it also matters what falls upstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 UKMET more progressive like the GFS. NAM/RGEM solution is plausible, but given the trends, I'd go for the further east solution offered by the UKIE/GFS. Also, question whether sfc low can move meridionally like that without better phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 For the Greater Toronto Area, the trend in the 12z model suite is to bring in the colder air faster as the northern stream energy is very progressive. Thus, a changeover to snow is likely Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Amounts won't be big, but a good 1-3" is probable. It looks like the 2nd wave on Sunday will be a swing and a miss as it will affect areas to the east of Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 For the Greater Toronto Area, the trend in the 12z model suite is to bring in the colder air faster as the northern stream energy is very progressive. Thus, a changeover to snow is likely Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Amounts won't be big, but a good 1-3" is probable. It looks like the 2nd wave on Sunday will be a swing and a miss as it will affect areas to the east of Toronto. You know our record on rain changing to snow events. I wouldn't be surprised if all we ended up with is a few wet flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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