Organizing Low Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 interesting trends on the NAM tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 lol, trough goes neg tilt 78-84. NAM's trying to retrograde snow into mby from the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 interesting trends on the NAM tonight. Honestly, I thought west/wet/warm was our biggest problem with the 2nd storm. DTX mentioned that in their AFD. NAM not having any of it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 lol, trough goes neg tilt 78-84. NAM's trying to retrograde snow into mby from the east. curveball! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Honestly, I thought west/wet/warm was our biggest problem with the 2nd storm. DTX mentioned that in their AFD. NAM not having any of it yet. the NAM is trying to reborn those crazy solutions we saw earlier in the week for us in the eastern lakes.....its this close. this is what i was hoping for, though i never thought that trough would dig and tilt like that, this close in..... lets hope some other guidance follows tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 the NAM is trying to reborn those crazy solutions we saw earlier in the week for us in the eastern lakes.....its this close. this is what i was hoping for, though i never thought that trough would dig and tilt like that, this close in..... lets hope some other guidance follows tonight. RGEM at 48. Trough looks deeper and more phased than the NAM valid at the same time. Would probably spin up the 2nd system in that baginess in the TN valley, not sure where it would go though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 00z RGEM looks like it's gonna be more phased than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 RGEM at 48. Trough looks deeper and more phased than the NAM valid at the same time. Would probably spin up the 2nd system in that baginess in the TN valley, not sure where it would go though. You beat me. Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 yikes that is warm for us on the RGEM what differences between the NAM and RGEM at 48 that tells me that they are both probably wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 You beat me. Congrats! Highlight of the day. btw...although I said "don't know where it would go", I'd guess it's probably west of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 Highlight of the day. btw...although I said "don't know where it would go", I'd guess it's probably west of the NAM. The 00z RGEM looks more like the 18z NAM, but it looks like the RGEM has the southern s/w farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 SREFS look further east than the NAM. Good sign! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 SREFS look further east than the NAM. Good sign! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 GFS is a good hit for MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Pretty big changes for the GFS. Finally gave up on the strung out POS in the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 yikes that is warm for us on the RGEM what differences between the NAM and RGEM at 48 that tells me that they are both probably wrong new GFS looks warm for us, up to 48 hours at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 The only time the GFS caves is when it shows significant snow for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 GFS caves game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 GFS caves game over. We're shot, we're bleeding profusely, but we're not dead yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 UKIE at 60 hours has a strung out 1012 from Montreal to WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 We're shot, we're bleeding profusely, but we're not dead yet. The 00z GFS would give us 1-2" of snow on the backside late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. But it's very progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 hillarious that all this 'potential' looks to turn into nothing more than a strung out, fairly progressive cold frontal passage, Bowme turd style. well i guess the euro looks to be very right, its been saying that for a couple days now. need a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 hillarious that all this 'potential' looks to turn into nothing more than a strung out, fairly progressive cold frontal passage, Bowme turd style. well i guess the euro looks to be very right, its been saying that for a couple days now. need a miracle. Yea and the lack of a respectable storm isnt supporting blocking or bringing down enough cold air south and east for the next storm to work with so its a double unfortunate event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 GFS is a good hit for MKE. mke office hoist a wsw in the morning? Kidding, pretty much.. nothing would surprise me with that office though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 Thought I'd make a quick post about the 00z runs. Here are the 500 mb maps for the GFS/NAM/GGEM/RGEM/UKMET valid 00z Sunday. There are some differences as you can see. The RGEM is the deepest with the trough and extrapolated would probably have a decent rain changing to snow event and farther west than the other 00z runs. The fate of this event rests on what happens around this timeframe so it would be wise to watch the trends with each wave closely. Relatively small changes could yield rather drastic shifts in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 quite a difference from the rgem and GGEM. Noticeable on the precip maps. RGEM would most likley yield atleast a few inches on the backside. Not that it matters as we would already have 2 inches of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Thought I'd make a quick post about the 00z runs. Here are the 500 mb maps for the GFS/NAM/GGEM/RGEM/UKMET valid 00z Sunday. There are some differences as you can see. The RGEM is the deepest with the trough and extrapolated would probably have a decent rain changing to snow event and farther west than the other 00z runs. The fate of this event rests on what happens around this timeframe so it would be wise to watch the trends with each wave closely. Relatively small changes could yield rather drastic shifts in this setup. Nice graphic. GFS has the shallowest trough and is the most progressive with the storm. The UKIE/GGEM/NAM have just enough separation in their troughs between those two s/ws to make it more of an Appalachians/interior NE event, but like you said it's very close. Even a little more digging on any of those solutions could pull the storm west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 mke office hoist a wsw in the morning? Kidding, pretty much.. nothing would surprise me with that office though This storm at least should give us SOMETHING, even if it's mostly rain. If it gives us a half inch of rain followed by 6 inches of snow, I will consider that a very successful March storm. The GFS verbatim gives us 6-8 inches, but I'd take even half that, given how bleak this thing looked a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 This storm at least should give us SOMETHING, even if it's mostly rain. If it gives us a half inch of rain followed by 6 inches of snow, I will consider that a very successful March storm. The GFS verbatim gives us 6-8 inches, but I'd take even half that, given how bleak this thing looked a couple days ago. Just a typical Goofus run tonight... Garbage in garbage out model like, ct blizz says. The thing should just be trashed and started over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Just a typical Goofus run tonight... Garbage in garbage out model like, ct blizz says. The thing should just be trashed and started over. Everything's a goofus run, that's why it's nowcast ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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