Harry Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 The Euro looks like the GFS in that regard. Usually hard to bet against that combo but it's hard to bet on any model in this complicated setup. The only reason i wont go that far is because well when there is a nw trend to be had it will be the UK/GGEM to first sniff it out. Plus a number of recent events have been a bit farther nw then what the GFS/Euro had showed ( In this time range ) however the RGEM and whatever ended up a shade too far nw. So the safe bet is probably the middle of the road between the camps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 actually i take it back the GFS has some support of the NAM, except the NAM is further north and west by about 50 miles with the wave train initially. that makes a lot of difference as the wave train makes further inroads N and delays the cold air coming in. the euro/gem/ukie just have a warm wave train intiially that crosses the area. the ukie and euro develop the secondary much later and along the coast after the wave train has passed east. the GEM doesnt develop a secondary low. Nice summation of what's going on. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 I'm thinking 1 more model upheaval before a workable consensus develops. I'd hope we have this mostly figured out by 12z tomorrow. Looking forward to the 18z ensembles...guaranteed I'll find at least one halfway decent solution for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Nice summation of what's going on. Thanks. no problem i needed that for myself too my head was spinning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I'd hope we have this mostly figured out by 12z tomorrow. Looking forward to the 18z ensembles...guaranteed I'll find at least one halfway decent solution for MBY. Looks like about 4 members by my count that would develop a stronger low in the OV than the OP with a nice CCB band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Talk about some sick rainfall rates if this verified. I don't recall ever being in the red on a Canadian model run even in the extended. Some wild stuff. As wet as a chick after being f*cksawed on the Northwestern campus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 As wet as a chick after being f*cksawed on the Northwestern campus. Bowme's a bad influence on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 18z NAM has about 1.5" of snow for LAF. Looks like it would be coming through during the night as well. I've kind of abandoned this storm after starting the original thread...well actually work has made my abandon weather for the time being...but let's lock that in and salvage something from this disastah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Bowme's a bad influence on you. Na. Stuff just pops into my head from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 Looks like about 4 members by my count that would develop a stronger low in the OV than the OP with a nice CCB band. This is gonna be harder to pull off here (in terms of a sig snow) but I'd definitely be watching it farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 I've kind of abandoned this storm after starting the original thread...well actually work has made my abandon weather for the time being...but let's lock that in and salvage something from this disastah. Would put us awfully close to 50"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Bowme's a bad influence on you. Better than talking about poop though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Would put us awfully close to 50"... Not sure why, but I'm feeling we finish at 49.9". Of course I'll slant stick that last 0.1" if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 Not sure why, but I'm feeling we finish at 49.9". Of course I'll slant stick that last 0.1" if need be. Right on. We can't allow that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Right on. We can't allow that to happen. It won't my friend. Now, we actually got to get some snow to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Looks like about 4 members by my count that would develop a stronger low in the OV than the OP with a nice CCB band. link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 link? From PSU...just change the times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 This is gonna be harder to pull off here (in terms of a sig snow) but I'd definitely be watching it farther east. Would you think, as I am looking also, that we'll get hit with 2+" rain and then be in for that snow E Ind and West Ohio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 From PSU...just change the times P010, P004 and P002 please!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 Would you think, as I am looking also, that we'll get hit with 2+" rain and then be in for that snow E Ind and West Ohio? Heavy rain still looks quite likely. The snow aspect is more tricky. It will depend on the strength/track of each wave. Right now it's pretty safe to say rain will change to snow but how much moisture is left is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 00z NAM has an elongated 1012 mb contour from southern MI to the bootheel of MO at 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 00z NAM has an elongated 1012 mb contour from southern MI to the bootheel of MO at 36 hours. Looks like less phasing than with the 18z run. Might end up being a more progressive solution (no/less secondary development). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 At 48, northern low has washed out. Left with a long, narrow 1016 trough extending from the GLs to the Gulf. H5 trough axis is still back at the MS river, so maybe we'll see some redevelopment in the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 At 48, northern low has washed out. Left with a long, narrow 1016 trough extending from the GLs to the Gulf. H5 trough axis is still back at the MS river, so maybe we'll see some redevelopment in the OV. This NAM run looks flat and junky unfortunately for the folks wanting snow. The southern stream was too slow and there was no favorable phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 This NAM run looks flat and junky unfortunately for the folks wanting snow. The southern stream was too slow and there was no favorable phase. Yeah, I could see this coming early. Might get its act together, but too far east to do me any good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 It basically a weaker version of the 12z GGEM from what I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 At 66, 1008 is over western SC. 72 on the 18z had 1008 near Rochester, NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 Yeah, I could see this coming early. Might get its act together, but too far east to do me any good. Very close though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Very close though. It was a small timing issue early that screwed the pooch. Wouldn't take much to bring this back the other way, but we'll have to monitor trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 P010, P004 and P002 please!!! As will I. Its going to be wet might as well go for the gold! I mentioned it in the Mar thread....In less than 3 weeks, weve seen a heavy 16" snowpack torched away, quickly replaced with a 10" snowstorm, a 4" snowstorm, a 1" rainstorm...and now more heavy rain and possibly heavy snow in the forecast. No worries of drought here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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