TheWeatherPimp Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 How's the QPF? Very low compared to the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 So, any idea on what is going to happen? It is going to be real tough to develop a defo band with this overall setup and a good back end shot of snow with the overal positive tilt mean trough. Best threat would have been if the southern wave ejected ahead of the northern shortvwave. With the southern wave lagging behind--the northern shortwave will have to do all the work--and it will be a bit moisture starved on the backend and late to the game. For you some light snow on the very back end is a good threat--but light and probably not much in the way of accumulation at this time. Watch the wave config though--if that southern wave trends faster--it would be much better--but for now that doesn't look too likely. Also watch the northern wave--if it can even take a slight negative tilt within the mean trough--perhaps it could develop a better defo band and drop a couple inches of backend snow--but also a low end threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Very low compared to the other models Odd cause it was one of the highest not to long ago! It seems to be an outlier in those terms then as most all of the models are pretty high in QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 It is going to be real tough to develop a defo band with this overall setup and a good back end shot of snow with the overal positive tilt mean trough. Best threat would have been if the southern wave ejected ahead of the northern shortvwave. With the southern wave lagging behind--the northern shortwave will have to do all the work--and it will be a bit moisture starved on the backend and late to the game. For you some light snow on the very back end is a good threat--but light and probably not much in the way of accumulation at this time. Watch the wave config though--if that southern wave trends faster--it would be much better--but for now that doesn't look too likely. Also watch the northern wave--if it can even take a slight negative tilt within the mean trough--perhaps it could develop a better defo band and drop a couple inches of backend snow--but also a low end threat. Thanks for your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 Odd cause it was one of the highest not to long ago! It seems to be an outlier in those terms then as most all of the models are pretty high in QPF. QPF seems too low considering the moisture transport and relatively slow progression, not to mention the likelihood of elevated instability/thunder which would locally enhance totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Guys, help those of us with only freebies out. At 48 I see a strung out area of lp from Lk Huron to the Gulf, and then at 72 I see a closed 1012 NE of Lk Ontario. Is that the same low, or does the first one collapse and a new one spawn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Guys, help those of us with only freebies out. At 48 I see a strung out area of lp from Lk Huron to the Gulf, and then at 72 I see a closed 1012 NE of Lk Ontario. Is that the same low, or does the first one collapse and a new one spawn? It is mostly rain for all. Perhaps up to a inch as it is pulling out. It tries to fire another which rides directly over your head and thus when the cold air gets in the precip is pulling out. Couple of inches in N.MI ( North of Grand Rapids to north of Thumb ) perhaps but that is it. It does pop another as well east of the apps which rides up the coast and dumps a few inches plus near/just west of i95/New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 LOLGAPS shows the best solution of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 NAM is trying to develop a back end defo band and was much faster with the southern stream wave and a better phase than 12Z. Still a low threat but it does have back end snows for IN/N OH and into S MI and Toronto--although areas like Toronto are in a much better place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 NAM is trying to develop a back end defo band and was much faster with the southern stream wave and a better phase than 12Z. Still a low threat but it does have back end snows for IN/N OH and into S MI and Toronto--although areas like Toronto are in a much better place. The whole ul trough just crawls after 54. Gives sufficiently cold air a chance to rush in and turn some of that moisture plume into snow. Decent looking accums in the deformation zone for a trough that's pos. tilt. Very narrow corridor though. Tough to get too excited, although the multiple wave aspect of this storm, regardless of whether it produces accum. snow, is pretty neat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 DTX: THE SOMEWHAT PHASED AND POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SHOWN BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO BE OVER THE PLAINS AS LATE AS 12Z SATURDAY AND NOT IN GOOD POSITION TO SUPPORT MUCH SURFACE WAVE FORMATION. THIS REQUIRES WE ALLOW COLDER AIR TO MAKE IT FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING REPRESENTED BY THE RETURN TO AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DURING SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS TROUGH THEN LOOKS BETTER IN THE MODEL DATA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE HELP OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST REVOLVES MORE AROUND THE TRACK OF THE WAVE AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS SE MICHIGAN SUNDAY MORNING BUT ALSO REQUIRES MONITORING FOR POTENTIAL OVERACHIEVEMENT DUE TO WESTWARD TRACK ADJUSTMENTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 18z NAM has a nice swath of 6"+ snows from Cleveland to Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 18z NAM has a nice swath of 6"+ snows from Cleveland to Toronto. 18z GFS looks pretty similar, although maybe a bit warmer to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 Gotta love this discrepancy. 18z RGEM has a 1001 mb surface low near South Bend at 48 hours. The GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 gfs is nuts.....really developing the second low, you could see it headed that way early at h5 i dont know if thats a serious icestorm or heavy snow for ottawa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Soundings will give a better picture, but on its plots, the 18z GFS brings the sfc freezing line through 3z on Sunday, while the 0c 850 line lags back until after 9z. Maybe some icing potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Gotta love this discrepancy. 18z RGEM has a 1001 mb surface low near South Bend at 48 hours. The GFS? Not 100% sure, but I think every other model has trended away from the deeper NW solution for the first wave. I'd probably throw out the RGEM if that's the case, especially considering its bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 18z NAM has about 1.5" of snow for LAF. Looks like it would be coming through during the night as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 Not 100% sure, but I think every other model has trended away from the deeper NW solution for the first wave. I'd probably throw out the RGEM if that's the case, especially considering its bias. Yeah, just wanted to post about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Soundings will give a better picture, but on its plots, the 18z GFS brings the sfc freezing line through 3z on Sunday, while the 0c 850 line lags back until after 9z. Maybe some icing potential? yes ive noted that here too on other models also....you can see the SREFs have been showing that zone of ice between the rain leaving and the snow coming.......guess the strong high to the NW looks to advect cold air in at the surface.... defintely looks like a rain to frzra to snow scenario will be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Not 100% sure, but I think every other model has trended away from the deeper NW solution for the first wave. I'd probably throw out the RGEM if that's the case, especially considering its bias. Actually the RGEM would be the weakest with the first wave ( Almost doesn't have it but can be seen just north of Superior ) and thus how this manages to sneak up into N.IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Not 100% sure, but I think every other model has trended away from the deeper NW solution for the first wave. I'd probably throw out the RGEM if that's the case, especially considering its bias. Actually the 18z UKMET has the low in the exact same spot as the RGEM (and has been advertising a similar track for many runs in a row now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 Actually the 18z UKMET has the low in the exact same spot as the RGEM (and has been advertising a similar track for many runs in a row now) Beat me to the UKIE. Madness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Actually the RGEM would be the weakest with the first wave ( Almost doesn't have it but can be seen just north of Superior ) and thus how this manages to sneak up into N.IN. The wave numbering is starting to get confusing. I've been calling the Saturday storm "1" and the Sunday wave up/just west/east of the Apps as storm "2". I haven't even been considering tomorrow's lead wave. Comparing the 18z RGEM/UKIE to the 18z NAM, the differences may not be as big as I thought. RGEM/UKIE have a ~1004 over FWA at 48, NAM has a 1012 over Pt Huron, so the latter models are deeper/slower, but not a massive difference. The GFS with the 1016 "turd" in the OV is pretty different, but its consistency with that solution has been pretty spectacular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Talk about some sick rainfall rates if this verified. I don't recall ever being in the red on a Canadian model run even in the extended. Some wild stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 its basically the GFS versus everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 The wave numbering is starting to get confusing. I've been calling the Saturday storm "1" and the Sunday wave up/just west/east of the Apps as storm "2". I haven't even been considering tomorrow's lead wave. Comparing the 18z RGEM/UKIE to the 18z NAM, the differences may not be as big as I thought. RGEM/UKIE have a ~1004 over FWA at 48, NAM has a 1012 over Pt Huron, so the latter models are deeper/slower, but not a massive difference. The GFS with the 1016 "turd" in the OV is pretty different, but its consistency with that solution has been pretty spectacular. The Euro looks like the GFS in that regard. Usually hard to bet against that combo but it's hard to bet on any model in this complicated setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 its basically the GFS versus everyone. actually i take it back the GFS has some support of the NAM, except the NAM is further north and west by about 50 miles with the wave train initially. that makes a lot of difference as the wave train makes further inroads N and delays the cold air coming in. the euro/gem/ukie just have a warm wave train intiially that crosses the area. the ukie and euro develop the secondary much later and along the coast after the wave train has passed east. the GEM doesnt develop a secondary low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 yes ive noted that here too on other models also....you can see the SREFs have been showing that zone of ice between the rain leaving and the snow coming.......guess the strong high to the NW looks to advect cold air in at the surface.... defintely looks like a rain to frzra to snow scenario will be expected. I ran 18z GFS on BUFKIT for YYZ. Only 3" of snow, but more than 1/3" of ice, plus a couple of hours of ice pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 The Euro looks like the GFS in that regard. Usually hard to bet against that combo but it's hard to bet on any model in this complicated setup. I'm thinking 1 more model upheaval before a workable consensus develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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