SpartyOn Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 00z EURO gave DTW .65 snow.?. My Bullsh%t detector is going off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 BowMeHunter : "Nice how the 2nd turd slowly pinches its way through the ass cheeks" lol Hopefully we can get the second wave far enoguh west for you too. But we would need a much weaker initial wave. In any event I would be getting quite excited with the trends if I were in Toronto, Cleveand or Bufffalo right now. A bit depends on how quick that lil ole block ( note the stuff north of New England on the 500mb vort maps. Why the NAO is going - ) gets out of the way. Thus why as well this system is a bit of a slow mover and could end up even slower. That tiny block is what is keeping that high in place on/near the eastcoast in the NE and thus is preventing this system from going to far east too quickly. Odd situation/block but what is new this winter with all the oddball stuff we have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 DTX's HWO says it all. We have no clue what's going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I think it's pretty safe to say that every winter storm should be called a NOWCAST. It's been that way this season, anyway. Maybe the Groundhog Day storm was pretty much set in stone, but even that storm had minor nw shifts the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 GB snowstorm on the 12z GFS. .5 QPF or so for them. NAM was the same way. I needed about a .5 degree colder temp here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Sandwched in between both systems. Fine with me. Ill pass on rain. Euro was interesting last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Sandwched in between both systems. Fine with me. Ill pass on rain. Euro was interesting last night. Same here by the looks of the maps. Sandwiched between them, and next system brings a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Sandwched in between both systems. Fine with me. Ill pass on rain. Euro was interesting last night. GFS still managed to give us 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 That's what she said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 That's what she said. Women in Michigan are used to settling for less than 5 inches....oh lol cha ching! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Lets see if the 12z Euro continues with its late call on the 00z. Cautiously waiting for a decent solution and some agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Looks like the Ukie's on board with the 2nd storm, although it would be pretty far east with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 GGEM presents us with yet another rainly run through 69hr. The first wave is strong but SE (near Detroit/Toledo), so there virtually is no second wave of significance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 GGEM presents us with yet another rainly run through 69hr. The first wave is strong but SE (near Detroit/Toledo), so there virtually is no second wave of significance. Yeah, no second storm, but some of that precip is slow moving anafrontal stuff. I'd think it's a few slushy inches on the backside verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Yeah, no second storm, but some of that precip is slow moving anafrontal stuff. I'd think it's a few slushy inches on the backside verbatim. I'm looking at the GGEM's precipitation type maps and most of it is rain verbatim. It changes over just in time for Buffalo to produce a light/moderate snowfall, but that's it. EDIT: and Ottawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I'm looking at the GGEM's precipitation type maps and most of it is rain verbatim. It changes over just in time for Buffalo to produce a light/moderate snowfall, but that's it. EDIT: and Ottawa. Meh. Waddayahgoinadu. Some model dissenting is something you always see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Send in the clowns. NAM style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 Looks like the 2 wave solution is becoming a bit more likely although still considerable uncertainty. I have a feeling we may have another surprise or two left to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Women in Michigan are used to settling for less than 5 inches....oh lol cha ching! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Looks like the 2 wave solution is becoming a bit more likely although still considerable uncertainty. I have a feeling we may have another surprise or two left to go. Pretty much. I still think this will come down to nowcasting. Thats me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 Pretty much. I still think this will come down to nowcasting. Thats me though. The 6z GFS ensembles didn't come in at PSU but looking at Allan's site, there's still quite a bit of spread with a couple members taking the second wave pretty far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 RGEM busting out the 50 mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 Euro quite different from 00z. Talk about a highly sensitive setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Euro quite different from 00z. Talk about a highly sensitive setup. In what way? Further NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 No, it's just differen't in terms of the track. You still don't get any snow on the euro. Just differen't from 0z in the 2nd storm as well etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Euro quite different from 00z. Talk about a highly sensitive setup. There are about 4 moving parts with this storm all partially phasing and congealing into one mean trough and then de-amplifying into one or two distinct shortwaves as the storms heads towards the east coast. A tough setup indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 There are about 4 moving parts with this storm all partially phasing and congealing into one mean trough and then de-amplifying into one or two distinct shortwaves as the storms heads towards the east coast. A tough setup indeed. So, any idea on what is going to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 How's the QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Euro quite different from 00z. Talk about a highly sensitive setup. Crazy huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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