Trent Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The models busted incredibly hard on where the axis of heaviest QPF was to be found by a good 150 miles too far NW. Yeah, I'm going with 2-3" of snow max here for tonight into tomorrow. The QPF has been incredibly overdone here. We have had a pathetic 0.22" of rain thus far (no complaints from me however), a far cry from the 2-3 inch amounts that had been spit out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Yeah Im jealous. How much snowpack you have left? We had that happen on Feb 27/28, heavy rain, snowpack barely budge with temps in the 30s...but this time weve had temps in the 40s for 24 hours. We have anywhere from 4 to 5 inches in areas that don't get much sun to patches of grass in areas that get a lot of exposure to the sun. So, I guess that would maybe balance out to a 2 inch depth or so. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Yeah, I'm going with 2-3" of snow max here for tonight into tomorrow. The QPF has been incredibly overdone here. We have had a pathetic 0.22" of rain thus far (no complaints from me however), a far cry from the 2-3 inch amounts that had been spit out. Meh, I'm don't live in a flood prone area, so I would have enjoyed some heavy rain. Any kind of active weather gives me a thrill. 2-3" of snow sounds good here as well. Unless there's a period of PL/ZR which might cut down amounts, although the models are trending away from that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The models busted incredibly hard on where the axis of heaviest QPF was to be found by a good 150 miles too far NW. Based on the latest guidance, my snowfall forecast for the Toronto area tonight is 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Based on the latest guidance, my snowfall forecast for the Toronto area tonight is 1-2". Going to be dependent on the changeover. RGEM looks like about 5z, NAM 2z. That 3 hours could cost or gain us a couple of inches. Back to the rain, the models didn't really misplace the front or the upper level energy. Everything in that regard looks on track. I don't think they really picked up on the strength of the llj ahead of the front, and that's been the focus of where the heavy rain has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 12z NAM BUFKIT, even with the main show missing us, still spits out 3-5" for YYZ. But again, that 3 hours is the big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Windsor was at 45 at 10am. Now down to 35. At least the models haven't overestimated the magnitude of the shallow arctic air behind the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 With the amount of ponding going on and the freeze coming soon, I'm a little concerned about a flash freeze... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Going to be dependent on the changeover. RGEM looks like about 5z, NAM 2z. That 3 hours could cost or gain us a couple of inches. Back to the rain, the models didn't really misplace the front or the upper level energy. Everything in that regard looks on track. I don't think they really picked up on the strength of the llj ahead of the front, and that's been the focus of where the heavy rain has been. nice post, i was wodnering why everything appears to be SE, of course the cold air placement hasnt followed suit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Haha. That just barely beats out ROC's output of 33.8" Wow. This storm reminds me so much of my reading of the April 20, 1901 snowstorm that holds the state of Ohio record for 24-hour snowfall. I could see somebody picking up 2-3 feet from this... where that will be is anybody's guess at this point. But I should mention that the 1901 storm was supposed to track more east than it actually did due to high pressure southeast of Atlantic Canada. On April 16, 1901, a low pressure area formed in south-central and southeastern Arizona. It moved into central Texas on the 17th, and 8:00 a.m. (Eastern Time) of the 18th found this low located on the Mississippi-Alabama border with a projected track to the east. However, the low moved slightly to the northeast and was sitting over central Georgia by 8:00 a.m. of the 19th. A solid but irregular band of precipitation stretched from southern Ontario and Quebec,Canada as far south as Cuba. Most of the precipitation was in the form of rain except in central and eastern Ohio, extreme northwestern Pennsylvania and extreme northwestern New York where snow was falling. The low was forecast to move to the east-northeast. Instead of moving east-northeast, the low turned straight northeast and was centered overNorth Carolina and Virginia by 8:00 a.m. of the 20th. Precipitation was falling from centralGeorgia to southern Ontario and from west-central Ohio eastward far out into the Atlantic Ocean. The low was still in Virginia the next morning and was forecast to move northwestward into West Virginia and southwestern Pennsylvania as a large, blocking high pressure system south of Newfoundland prevented the low from moving straight up theAtlantic Coast. Precipitation was occurring from northern Georgia to Quebec and from centralIndiana, where it was in the form of snow, to the Atlantic. Here is the weather map from 8 AM on April 20, 1901, showing a 1000 mb low centered near the VA/NC border. http://www.snowstorms.owlinc.org/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I woudn't put much stock in "official" NWS or Environment Canada forecasts with this event. Instead focus more on what the models show as they begin to converge to a solution. The NWS will inevitably be playing catch-up with this, as they always do with these springlike storms. They're still in winter mode. These spring storms can pack a lot more moisture with them. A good case-in-point was the April 2005 storm. I was forecast to get an inch or less and ended up with close to foot. Further north, there were winter storm warnings for 6-10 inches, but those areas ended up with 2 to 3 feet. So I'd be on the lookout anywhere between eastern Ohio and central PA and points northeast from there into upstate New York with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The RUC seems a little slower... at 9z tomorrow morning, it has the low still in SE Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Rainfall total through noon here: 0.54" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 It's a tough forecast. I'd probably lean away from the epic amounts of snow the 6z NAM was delivering. If you change over from ZR/RA at around 8 or 9 tonight, I think you could pick up 10cm, maybe 15. Good post. The NAM is totally out to lunch in my opinion. No way Ottawa gets those amounts. Here's hoping for at least 10cm though. As for thesecondary, I think we can stick a fork in it for Toronto and Ottawa. I think it will track too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Wow. This storm reminds me so much of my reading of the April 20, 1901 snowstorm that holds the state of Ohio record for 24-hour snowfall. I could see somebody picking up 2-3 feet from this... where that will be is anybody's guess at this point. But I should mention that the 1901 storm was supposed to track more east than it actually did due to high pressure southeast of Atlantic Canada. On April 16, 1901, a low pressure area formed in south-central and southeastern Arizona. It moved into central Texas on the 17th, and 8:00 a.m. (Eastern Time) of the 18th found this low located on the Mississippi-Alabama border with a projected track to the east. However, the low moved slightly to the northeast and was sitting over central Georgia by 8:00 a.m. of the 19th. A solid but irregular band of precipitation stretched from southern Ontario and Quebec,Canada as far south as Cuba. Most of the precipitation was in the form of rain except in central and eastern Ohio, extreme northwestern Pennsylvania and extreme northwestern New York where snow was falling. The low was forecast to move to the east-northeast. Instead of moving east-northeast, the low turned straight northeast and was centered overNorth Carolina and Virginia by 8:00 a.m. of the 20th. Precipitation was falling from centralGeorgia to southern Ontario and from west-central Ohio eastward far out into the Atlantic Ocean. The low was still in Virginia the next morning and was forecast to move northwestward into West Virginia and southwestern Pennsylvania as a large, blocking high pressure system south of Newfoundland prevented the low from moving straight up theAtlantic Coast. Precipitation was occurring from northern Georgia to Quebec and from centralIndiana, where it was in the form of snow, to the Atlantic. Here is the weather map from 8 AM on April 20, 1901, showing a 1000 mb low centered near the VA/NC border. http://www.snowstorms.owlinc.org/ Very nice find. Never saw that site before! Cant imagine what would happen if we had another one of those May snowstorms like that May 21, 1883 one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 And the WRF maintains its NW track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Down to 34, I notice rain now mixed with snow at DTW (still all rain here). Its just a mushy mess outside. Standing water everywhere. I must say though I am quite pleased with how many snowbanks remain. Away from snowplowed, shoveled, or blown snow, lots of grass (and water) and only a few patches and drifts of snow remain...however some residential streets at first glance still look pretty snowcovered simply because of all the snowbanks. Pretty much everywhere you go there are glaciers of old snow, and it really makes me think we will have them around for quite sometime. Will be interesting to see how long they can fight the spring sun. I say late April for most of the shaded ones, perhaps May for some of the mall ones. Many of them are like huge blocks of ice. Saw this sad scene at a park. There is not supposed to be a river there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 0.70" at LAF. Although in my defense, before I switched the computer off last night, the radar looked like the bulk of the heaviest rains that were down around STL would miss us to the south...which they evidently did. Couple that with missing out on the early Friday rains and I just didn't see us getting 1"+ totals. And currently... SPECI KLAF 051241Z 36012G16KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR OVC008 03/02 A2991 RMK AO2 RAB1158E10SNB10 CIG 004V012 P0002 Looks like we're at .76 now. The NAM was hinting at a small "gap" so I guess it gets some love for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Send in the clowns! Still grasping at an outside chance for a significant event in eastern Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 changed over to snow here in N Indiana bout an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Send in the clowns! Still grasping at an outside chance for a significant event in eastern Ohio. lol, that's quite the gradient up my way. 6" just offshore, 3-4" here, virtually nothing 15 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 SN here with big dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 fairly narrow but pretty intense band of snow set up across northeast IL from SW-NE and lit up on radar fairly quickly. Alek should be getting in on this shortly. about a half inch down here on the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Huge, flat snowflakes falling from the sky right now...up to quarter sized. Even after all that rain, I still have a solid 2-3 inches covering my yard....but a few bare spots around trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Nice area of expanding snow in ne IL right now. LAF might get in on some snow in a bit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Huge, flat snowflakes falling from the sky right now...up to quarter sized. Even after all that rain, I still have a solid 2-3 inches covering my yard....but a few bare spots around trees. 2-3"?? barely anything here, I'm not that far from you and the snow just started...sleet just changing to snow... I love that part, it looks like popcorn lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 2-3"?? I'm not that far from you and the snow just started...sleet just changing to snow... I love that part, it looks like popcorn lol He meant 2-3 on the ground from previous snows. I think. edit: I see you edited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 He meant 2-3 on the ground from previous snows. I think. Yup. Just went outside and walked on it...more slush then snow, really. Should be a glacier by tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 Nice area of expanding snow in ne IL right now. LAF might get in on some snow in a bit.. Getting some light snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Welp, 18z NAM holding steady. SREFS agree on a change over around 2-3z. Think 2-3" average is still a good call. 4-5" if we're lucky, 1" as our base. Deformation/frontogenetic pcpn starting to expand across NW OH/N IN. A nice shovellable snow even if it's not the monster blizzard of the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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