OKpowdah Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Not bad EPIIIIIIIC FAAAIIILLLL Not bad Not too bad so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Pretty good for our region....nice job. But its an epic fail on all levels in the SE US, lol (except Feb). Not that I'd do any better so I can't talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 Pretty good for our region....nice job. But its an epic fail on all levels in the SE US, lol (except Feb). Not that I'd do any better so I can't talk. Yeah I think that the failure in the SE for December and the F minus minus January kinda outweigh anything that went well lol. February could have been very good except that I had the core of the cold air too far east, and busted big time in the northern Plains -- Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Yeah I think that the failure in the SE for December and the F minus minus January kinda outweigh anything that went well lol. February could have been very good except that I had the core of the cold air too far east, and busted big time in the northern Plains -- Rockies. The severe -NAO in Dec and Jan really screwed up most forecasts in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Nice job, Sam Not bad at all. Mine was flat out awful...just terrible...on all levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I'm trying to find the post Sam, but I recall saying with tongue in cheek "You know January is going to be frigid with a ton of snow now that every single outlook has it as a torch for the east"....funny how it actually happened. Happened in 2008-2009 which is why I said it tongue in cheek. We still have a long long ways to go in seasonal forecasting even though the best can do it at about a 60% rate. Hindsight is "easy"...foresight is very difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I wasn't quite snowy enough, but not bad as far as the entirety of the season goes....but my monthlies def. left something to be desired, as I expected a "meh" Jan and epic March....OOPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I wasn't quite snowy enough, but not bad as far as the entirety of the season goes....but my monthlies def. left something to be desired, as I expected a "meh" Jan and epic March....OOPS. It was impossible to predict this epic of a year just based on analogs of past strong Ninas. But that's the danger of small sample sizes even if the physical forcing makes sense. There just wasn't a big precedent for that type of -NAO in a strong Nina. '55-'56 was the closest thing but that blocking was a back loaded so people kind of dismissed it. Again, not claiming I could have done any better. I didn't issue an outlook because I have no confidence in LR forecasting. But I think these threads can be great learning tools Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 It was impossible to predict this epic of a year just based on analogs of past strong Ninas. But that's the danger of small sample sizes even if the physical forcing makes sense. There just wasn't a big precedent for that type of -NAO in a strong Nina. '55-'56 was the closest thing but that blocking was a back loaded so people kind of dismissed it. You can see that once the blocking abated, it's been a more prototypical strong Nina....ie cold-dry....rain....cold-dry, rinse, repeat. Not a total torch, though, as some are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 You can see that once the blocking abated, it's been a more prototypical strong Nina....ie cold-dry....rain....cold-dry, rinse, repeat. Not a total torch, though, as some are. Yeah we developed a typical stiff gradient in February as shown that BOS was the only big EC city below avg for the month on temps. DCA was +3.6 while BOS -1.0. We barely missed a few good ones but we said that all during '07-'08 while getting some okay events. Same this February. Its too bad we couldn't rebuild the -NAO late in the month, I think that is what will ultimately separate this winter from a winter that could have ended up off the charts barring a huge come back in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The way March is heading, my snow numbers are going to be pretty damned good outside of PVD which has had a good but sub epic year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The way March is heading, my snow numbers are going to be pretty damned good outside of PVD which has had a good but sub epic year. Yea me too but our evolutions were off, March is screwing the pooch so far. We both had Feb as number one month but hey like the pros it's a numbers game and we did better than anyone thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Not bad overall, January really brings your grade down to maybe a C/C- final. Looks like you missed the cold in the SE for Dec as well. That was one of my biggest regrets with my forecast, should have gone cold in the SE given the -NAO I saw coming. Your snowfall forecast also like mine were bullish in New England, got the mid atlantic correct, but failed in the middle, PHL-NYC region. The strong -NAO allowed those anomalous totals to be about 200-300 miles further south than they normally would in a powerful nina event. Great winter but a shame it died so quickly. Maybe a couple more shots mid to late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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