Grade Met. Winter 10-11 for your backyard

[CAT5ANDREW]

<br />Nate -- the one aspect of this winter that was missing --> bitter cold. And I believe the strong ENSO regime of the past two winters definitely played a role in the lack of true, sustained arctic air into our region. If we can keep ENSO weak next winter with a low solar environment and potentially blocky north atlantic, we could really go to town w/ big time cold rivaling some of the greats, especially with global temps likely remaining below average this year. Don't want to get ahead of myself,  but I think we're living in exciting times. A lot of major changes happening in the global sense, with the PDO reversal, solar minimum, the NAO flip, AMO declining, and now La Nina ruling the roost. We've got a barrage of natural factors pointed toward a cooler picture in the years to come...<br />

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Excellent winter forecast!!!!

[jm1220]

A-. It would have easily been A+ had we had some more winter events last month. It's just very hard to keep up a heavy snow pattern for NYC given our climo, and when the blocking relented, the snow inevitably went back well north of here given the strong Nina. It just goes to show you how bad this winter could have been had the NAO not been negative for late Dec/Jan. We probably had no business whatsoever having any major winter weather given ENSO and the SE ridge. That said, the faster we kill this Nina, the better. Maybe put some thermal heaters in the Tropical Pac or something?

58" of snow in a winter (which is what I had, been too busy to update my sig) is amazing however you cut it.

[Isotherm]

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Excellent winter forecast!!!!

Thanks man!

[ace0927]

im not sure how a winter that only had a 30 day span of great weather and NOTHING else is an A+....yes there was 1 GREAT event and 2 lucky quick hitters but the rest of this winter was a joke...cold and dry or warm and wet...dont take this the wrong way but this was far from an A+ winter....1993-1994 was an A+ winter, 2002-2003 was an A winter....1995-1996 was an A+ winter..not this one. for 30 days A+...for 90 days, B.

[A-L-E-X]

im not sure how a winter that only had a 30 day span of great weather and NOTHING else is an A+....yes there was 1 GREAT event and 2 lucky quick hitters but the rest of this winter was a joke...cold and dry or warm and wet...dont take this the wrong way but this was far from an A+ winter....1993-1994 was an A+ winter, 2002-2003 was an A winter....1995-1996 was an A+ winter..not this one. for 30 days A+...for 90 days, B.

1993-94 was not an A+ winter, it was a B+ winter because there was no single event over one foot. 2002-03 and 1995-96 are the only A+ winters we have had.

I rank this ahead of 1993-94 because of the big storms but behind 1995-96 and 2002-03 whose bigger storms were bigger and the cold and snow season also lasted much longer. I graded this winter A-, just like last winter.

[A-L-E-X]

A-. It would have easily been A+ had we had some more winter events last month. It's just very hard to keep up a heavy snow pattern for NYC given our climo, and when the blocking relented, the snow inevitably went back well north of here given the strong Nina. It just goes to show you how bad this winter could have been had the NAO not been negative for late Dec/Jan. We probably had no business whatsoever having any major winter weather given ENSO and the SE ridge. That said, the faster we kill this Nina, the better. Maybe put some thermal heaters in the Tropical Pac or something?

58" of snow in a winter (which is what I had, been too busy to update my sig) is amazing however you cut it.

This would easily have been an A+ winter if it was a weak la nina and would have easily have broken 1995-96 record. Why have ENSO gone so extreme and out of control the last 10 years or so? Why cant we just have weak el ninos and weak la ninas?

[ag3]

If 18z GFS day 8-10 storm is right, I think we all switch to A+.

Lol.

[A-L-E-X]

Yes highly agree. I did think we had some pretty impressive cold shots this winter; as you mention, there was certainly nothing record-breaking or incredibly sustained, but it was cold in December and then again in mid January. I had 23/14 on December 14th, an anomaly close to -20F. I also had 19/2 on January 24th, which is about -20F as well. NYC was -4.5F for December and managed to maintain snow cover for almost two months straight, so there was obviously some good cold. I do concur, Tom, that it wasn't that extreme. People were talking about the January 24th "arctic outbreak" whereas I felt it was more of a typical mid-winter cold spell and not deserving of the title "arctic outbreak." 850s only dropped to -20C, and high temperatures still approached 20F...that's not very extreme at all. During January 1985 and January 1994, my house saw highs in the single digits with lows well below zero. So this was a cold winter, but not truly bitter like 76-77 or 70-71.

I agree that we're firmly pointed towards cold...UAH came in at -.02C for February, the coldest reading we've seen since the 2008 La Niña event. Large arctic airmasses prevailed this past month in Northern Canada and Western Russia, and the tendency for cold over the higher latitudes of North America looks to continue with the 12z GFS showing -40C 850s under a 474dm PV in mid-March, very impressive. With the continued low solar activity, -PDO/-ENSO, and the declining AMO, we should see the natural factors favoring cold overwhelming the anthropogenic factors weighted towards warmth, at least for the next 20-30 years when this regime is in place. I think we'll see some of our coldest winters in the 2020s once the arctic has had a chance to recover from the brutal +PDO/+AO/+ENSO stretch it had to endure...we also may get deeper into the solar minimum with an overall cumulative effect on both global temperatures and blocking. A weak ENSO state tends to produce the coldest winters in our area, thinking back to 03-04, 93-94, 83-84, 77-78, 76-77, 69-70, 60-61...those were all weak ENSO, and most on the El Niño side. A multi-year La Niña followed by a weak El Niño is the best recipe for extreme cold, and I think we may get that with a weak/moderate Niña in 11-12 and then an El Niño coming in 12-13 or 13-14. We had a similar situation in the 1970s at the end of the last -PDO phase: 1973-1976 was dominated by powerful La Niñas, and then the weak Niño in 76-77 delivered one of the coldest winters on record with a very strong -NAO/-EPO pattern.

This winter was a lot better than 70-71 or 76-77 since those were losers for snow. IMO Big Snow > Big Cold

Screw mod la nina, keep it weak or make it go away lol.

[Isotherm]

If 18z GFS day 8-10 storm is right, I think we all switch to A+.

Lol.

Just saw that, and what a beauty she is. 1035-40mb high in NNE with strong overrunning. Verbatime would probably be a 6-12" hit. IMO that's our last window for a decent event (March 14th-20th period).

We have a cutter tomorrow, another cutter later this week, then the polar air sags SE by D7-8, setting the stage for this one. Of course it's out in fantasy land, but the indices will be better than they are now -- basically a neutral PNA, AO and NAO (if the GFS ensembles are correct, maybe a -AO).

[ag3]

Just saw that, and what a beauty she is. 1035-40mb high in NNE with strong overrunning. Verbatime would probably be a 6-12" hit. IMO that's our last window for a decent event (March 14th-20th period).

We have a cutter tomorrow, another cutter later this week, then the polar air sags SE by D7-8, setting the stage for this one. Of course it's out in fantasy land, but the indices will be better than they are now -- basically a neutral PNA, AO and NAO (if the GFS ensembles are correct, maybe a -AO).

12z euro of course is very warm and no storm during this period. But still nice to look at a GFS fantasy storm. Haven't seen one in a while.

[Diego]

On a personal basis, it's too soon to rate this winter because of the disappointment of the virtual busting of almost half of this winter, after the HECS of Jan. 26/27, and switch off of the -NAO, and because there are still a few more weeks of this winter left at least on a theoretical basis (per ag3, see http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_240l.gif). In any event, once I could more objectively and effectively rate it, the criteria that I would utilize would include the following from the most to the least important: (1) the quantity of snowfall; (2) the quality of it (in this regard, how it fell such as whether or not it fell in snowstorms and the nature and duration of the snowstorms which would include snowfall rates and blowing and drifting if any); the duration of snowcover; the extent and intensity of cold temperatures; and the comparison to other winters.

So far, this winter is guaranteed to rate at least a B, but could improve. The blizzard of Dec. 26/27 was a winner as to snowfall intensity and the degree of the blowing and drifting of it, although I felt that it could have lasted a bit longer, and although the near miss of a HECs on Jan. 9/10 in my area was moderately frustrating, it was a pleasant surprise to receive the unexpected HECs of Jan. 26/27, and the smaller snowfalls in Jan. resulting in the cumulative amount for that month of 36.0." In addition, the other positive feature was the extensiveness of the snowcover, though not a record.

On the other hand, temperature wise, there was nothing spectacular about the level or amount of cold weather, except that it was cold enough to maintain a continuous snowcover from Dec. 26 until mid. Feb. In this regard, the lowest temp. at CPK was only 6F on Jan. 24, and even though Dec. was 4.5 below normal, the lowest temp. for that month was only 19F.

[A-L-E-X]

Just saw that, and what a beauty she is. 1035-40mb high in NNE with strong overrunning. Verbatime would probably be a 6-12" hit. IMO that's our last window for a decent event (March 14th-20th period).

We have a cutter tomorrow, another cutter later this week, then the polar air sags SE by D7-8, setting the stage for this one. Of course it's out in fantasy land, but the indices will be better than they are now -- basically a neutral PNA, AO and NAO (if the GFS ensembles are correct, maybe a -AO).

Do you think we might have more chances if the forecasting big blocking for the end of March and early April comes to fruition?