Dave Tolleris says Tip will be in garage,windows up

[cheetah440]

I like this version...

Agreed, Pulse version is the best.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[CoastalWx]

Using a Palmer drought index to formulate soil moisture and to predict future storm tracks in winter does not make sense . Using soil moisture it paints a different picture thus would change his tracks .

I'm talking more Spring/Summer. I think it can play a role in temps, but I'm not totally sold on wet soil having a big say in where troughs and ridges will be. I feel the same with SST's. Sure they play a role, but a +1C anomaly will not force a ridge to build.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I'm talking more Spring/Summer. I think it can play a role in temps, but I'm not totally sold on wet soil having a big say in where troughs and ridges will be. I feel the same with SST's. Sure they play a role, but a +1C anomaly will not force a ridge to build.

i've read some research stuff about the effects on mesoscale precip events but i've never encountered (but haven't looked for it) anything suggesting it would affect large scale patterns.

[Damage In Tolland]

Great song..that I only just realized is perfect for Tip..

Especially listen from 1:56 minute mark on till the end..Just awesome power...feel it

[Typhoon Tip]

Eh, in retrospect I suppose with all the teasing and humiliating of I've been superbly achieving ... I guess I deserved this.

Seriously, I don't really have any problems with that outlook, actually...

In fact, I was actually considering putting out some semblance of an actual snow threat discussion - holding back in lieu of this, and oh yeah, that stupid April thing.

But, It would have been in the ironic prose considering that we knock the door on 570dm thickness Monday, and 1 week later may very well be entering a pattern that at any time between Dec 1 and Apr 1 would have Will shelving the Zanax. (haha). Considering that we have had important snows in history all the way to the middle of May, I guess it is not impossible. One thing that 1977 had that is similar to now, is the background canvas of being the last time we endured a deep solar minimum anomaly, which is highly correlated to negative polar field phase states as we know ... Notwithstanding, there has been an uptick in solar activity as of recently, but as predicted by the solar minimum, the return to activity is still below normal relative re-ignition. Why the correlation exists I am not certain, but I am sure the science is fascinating.

Anyway, the reason I mentioned it is not to get Kevin all lubed up - although it would be fun to do so, only to have it fail, and then sit back and observe his torment like Count Gruben from Princess Bride - "I've just sucked 3 more weeks of your life away" (evil English accent). Ginx mentioned the other day that there was a negative vibe coming from up N - I warned at the time that the signal was too new and we need time for that to cook and show some persistence. Well ... 3 days later and the signal still grows. Not sure how much longer we have to cook this thing before we serve a nice meal of typical dog**** New England Spring misery. In 1977, the NAO abruptly differentiated negative and drove a small but potent mid level vortex from James Bay right over SNE, and viola! Maybe we can do something like that again - or - as the 18z came precariously close to achieving yesterday, doing a more full field involved cold trough closure and elevation 20" blue.

I will add though that the CDC is not really as bullish on these indices tumbling out in time.

[Typhoon Tip]

Actually ... i can't even open the link because it is redirecting me to a log-in page for Facebook, and I have no interest in creating an account with an outfit that encourages the retardation of civility as it erodes the ethic of meeting persons in person....

[Ginx snewx]

Eh, in retrospect I suppose with all the teasing and humiliating of I've been superbly achieving ... I guess I deserved this.

Seriously, I don't really have any problems with that outlook, actually...

In fact, I was actually considering putting out some semblance of an actual snow threat discussion - holding back in lieu of this, and oh yeah, that stupid April thing.

But, It would have been in the ironic prose considering that we knock the door on 570dm thickness Monday, and 1 week later may very well be entering a pattern that at any time between Dec 1 and Apr 1 would have Will shelving the Zanax. (haha). Considering that we have had important snows in history all the way to the middle of May, I guess it is not impossibleGinx mentioned the other day that there was a negative vibe coming from up N - I warned at the time that the signal was too new and we need time for that to cook and show some persistence. Well ... 3 days later and the signal still grows. Not sure how much longer we have to cook this thing before we serve a nice meal of typical dog**** New England Spring misery. In 1977, the NAO abruptly differentiated negative and drove a small but potent mid level vortex from James Bay right over SNE, and viola! Maybe we can do something like that again - or - as the 18z came precariously close to achieving yesterday, doing a more full field involved cold trough closure and elevation 20" blue.

I will add though that the CDC is not really as bullish on these indices tumbling out in time.

Almost all members now have the AO tanking with a phase change occurring NAO, perhaps an indication that one more threat emerges as Easter approaches.

[Typhoon Tip]

Almost all members now have the AO tanking with a phase change occurring NAO, perhaps an indication that one more threat emerges as Easter approaches.

We've had an incredible string of nice Easters going back many years. I don't recall a cool rain and or snow issue for that holiday.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just as an OT side note... another aspect of this time of year that makes me want to punch my face is that IF there is some interesting meteorological phenomenon wholly dependent on how it is being modeled, why not push the modeling time out such that it takes for ever to get the next product

[CoastalWx]

Almost all members now have the AO tanking with a phase change occurring NAO, perhaps an indication that one more threat emerges as Easter approaches.

The PNA will be negative too, with models even flexing an East Coast ridge towards the end of the runs. That would probably define the word disaster potentially, as you have the chance of front hanging up near or just south of SNE if the NAO becomes negative. Or, the NAO is weakly negative and the ridge overpowers any cool signal to our north. That would be desirable.

[Typhoon Tip]

The PNA will be negative too, with models even flexing an East Coast ridge towards the end of the runs. That would probably define the word disaster potentially, as you have the chance of front hanging up near or just south of SNE if the NAO becomes negative. Or, the NAO is weakly negative and the ridge overpowers any cool signal to our north. That would be desirable.

I'm hoping...

Another thing... the GFS operational run has a tad of a progressive bias ...particularly in the middle range. It may be position that deep looking trough too far E at D7-8, thus setting the stage for a rather wintry look as it feeds back by getting pinned in there by it's own members wanting to drop the NAO as Ginx pointed out. That could all be a messy feedback of errors however.

The Euro run seems to have slightly shorter wave lengths over all, and that allows it to wind up the system and take it well west, leaving us with a mere fropa scenario.

[Ginx snewx]

The PNA will be negative too, with models even flexing an East Coast ridge towards the end of the runs. That would probably define the word disaster potentially, as you have the chance of front hanging up near or just south of SNE if the NAO becomes negative. Or, the NAO is weakly negative and the ridge overpowers any cool signal to our north. That would be desirable.

I'm hoping...

Another thing... the GFS operational run has a tad of a progressive bias ...particularly in the middle range. It may be position that deep looking trough too far E at D7-8, thus setting the stage for a rather wintry look as it feeds back by getting pinned in there by it's own members wanting to drop the NAO as Ginx pointed out. That could all be a messy feedback of errors however.

The Euro run seems to have slightly shorter wave lengths over all, and that allows it to wind up the system and take it well west, leaving us with a mere fropa scenario.

Euro has a powerful Arctic vortex farther south each run, PNA signals trending neutral too. Something to watch.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Euro has a powerful Arctic vortex farther south each run, PNA signals trending neutral too. Something to watch.

:weenie:

[Damage In Tolland]

Actually ... i can't even open the link because it is redirecting me to a log-in page for Facebook, and I have no interest in creating an account with an outfit that encourages the retardation of civility as it erodes the ethic of meeting persons in person....

I fixed the link to the spring forecast....so it's not a FB link now.

Did you watch the video from the 2nd post in this thread of Pink Floyd..as your mom and friends find you in the basement?...too late I might add

[Damage In Tolland]

Another song for Tippy to end his life to.. Great great song..Give it a listen

[Ginx snewx]

:weenie:

[/quoteGinx, on 09 April 2011 - 05:09 PM, said:

Euro has a powerful Arctic vortex farther south each run, PNA signals trending neutral too. Something to watch.

Snowing in CNE NNE tonight]

[Typhoon Tip]

The 00z ECM has persisted with big time warm up coming beyond D4, even more thrilling than prior runs

...which is interesting considering the teleconnector spread still does not support.

Here’s the catch: The teleconnectors I am talking about are derived off the 21 member GFS suite, not the ECMWF ensemble cluster.

The latter has its own derivation for the teleconnectors that I don’t get to see as a non-paying provincial Meteorologist - haha.

For all I know, the Euro ensemble derivatives are completely different than the GFS’, in which case, roll the di. The other

catch is that the teleconnectors start to lose meaningful correlation on determiningn pattern probabilities as we get closer

to May; this is particularly true for the PNA. The NAO tends to lose out by early June... Anyway, seeing as we will be amid

the last week of April when these D5-10 solutions of the Euro come to pass, the PNA's current rising in the GFS family may not

mean as much as it would in January.

Mr Tolleris' outlook may need to be reviewed.

[Damage In Tolland]

The 00z ECM has persisted with big time warm up coming beyond D4, even more thrilling than prior runs

...which is interesting considering the teleconnector spread still does not support.

Here’s the catch: The teleconnectors I am talking about are derived off the 21 member GFS suite, not the ECMWF ensemble cluster.

The latter has its own derivation for the teleconnectors that I don’t get to see as a non-paying provincial Meteorologist - haha.

For all I know, the Euro ensemble derivatives are completely different than the GFS’, in which case, roll the di. The other

catch is that the teleconnectors start to lose meaningful correlation on determiningn pattern probabilities as we get closer

to May; this is particularly true for the PNA. The NAO tends to lose out by early June... Anyway, seeing as we will be amid

the last week of April when these D5-10 solutions of the Euro come to pass, the PNA's current rising in the GFS family may not

mean as much as it would in January.

Mr Tolleris' outlook may need to be reviewed.

Looks like several days next week of 80+ widespread over SNE

[CoastalWx]

The 00z ECM has persisted with big time warm up coming beyond D4, even more thrilling than prior runs

...which is interesting considering the teleconnector spread still does not support.

Here’s the catch: The teleconnectors I am talking about are derived off the 21 member GFS suite, not the ECMWF ensemble cluster.

The latter has its own derivation for the teleconnectors that I don’t get to see as a non-paying provincial Meteorologist - haha.

For all I know, the Euro ensemble derivatives are completely different than the GFS’, in which case, roll the di. The other

catch is that the teleconnectors start to lose meaningful correlation on determiningn pattern probabilities as we get closer

to May; this is particularly true for the PNA. The NAO tends to lose out by early June... Anyway, seeing as we will be amid

the last week of April when these D5-10 solutions of the Euro come to pass, the PNA's current rising in the GFS family may not

mean as much as it would in January.

Mr Tolleris' outlook may need to be reviewed.

The GFS has a stronger -NAO signal it seems. I'm also noticing the euro is trying to keep troughing into the Plains, whereas the GFS is moving it eastward into the eastern US.

Not to ruin the party, but the height anomalies are pretty far east. Accordingly, high pressure is aligned north to south off the eastern seaboard. What we have to be careful about, it prolonged se flow off the water and the true WF struggling to make it northeast of CT. I've seen this before. That doesn't mean we are socked in with low clouds and temps in the lower 40s, but what it could do is mute the torch. Something to watch. Later on, high pressure begins to bow out into the deep south...almost like the shape of a football. That will setup a warmer southwest flow possibly after d10.

[Logan11]

Nice tendency toward the negative NAO post day 10 on the 6Z GFS. A few systems cutting under etc.... lots of Atlantic easterly flow at times also for SNE.

The GFS has a stronger -NAO signal it seems. I'm also noticing the euro is trying to keep troughing into the Plains, whereas the GFS is moving it eastward into the eastern US.

Not to ruin the party, but the height anomalies are pretty far east. Accordingly, high pressure is aligned north to south off the eastern seaboard. What we have to be careful about, it prolonged se flow off the water and the true WF struggling to make it northeast of CT. I've seen this before. That doesn't mean we are socked in with low clouds and temps in the lower 40s, but what it could do is mute the torch. Something to watch. Later on, high pressure begins to bow out into the deep south...almost like the shape of a football. That will setup a warmer southwest flow possibly after d10.

[CoastalWx]

Nice tendency toward the negative NAO post day 10 on the 6Z GFS. A few systems cutting under etc.... lots of Atlantic easterly flow at times also for SNE.

LOL, awesome.

[Logan11]

JB's Spring forecast...in his words ..Delayed but not Denied. LOL

LOL, awesome.

[Typhoon Tip]

The GFS has a stronger -NAO signal it seems. I'm also noticing the euro is trying to keep troughing into the Plains, whereas the GFS is moving it eastward into the eastern US.

Not to ruin the party, but the height anomalies are pretty far east. Accordingly, high pressure is aligned north to south off the eastern seaboard. What we have to be careful about, it prolonged se flow off the water and the true WF struggling to make it northeast of CT. I've seen this before. That doesn't mean we are socked in with low clouds and temps in the lower 40s, but what it could do is mute the torch. Something to watch. Later on, high pressure begins to bow out into the deep south...almost like the shape of a football. That will setup a warmer southwest flow possibly after d10.

Let us also keep in my that the GFS has at a minimum a moderate progressivity bias in the middle and extended range, and that doesn't help its cause in trying to erode the SE ridge as quickly as it does. That's not to say that the Euro will verify outright - but it does give some nod back thatta way.

I'm also less convinced of any deterministic solution in on April "chaos in spring" 20th as well.

[Typhoon Tip]

Scottness .... I see what you mean. Subtle but important veriations in the mass fields seen here: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html , would have significant impact differences on the sensible weather.

The Euro version seems to support it's operational, whereas the GFS seems to support its deterministic version.

Nice little battle there.

[CoastalWx]

Scottness .... I see what you mean. Subtle but important veriations in the mass fields seen here: http://www.meteo.psu...0z/hgtcomp.html , would have significant impact differences on the sensible weather.

The Euro version seems to support it's operational, whereas the GFS seems to support its deterministic version.

Nice little battle there.

Yeah we don't want the ridge too far to the east, otherwise we'll have more marine air tainting the warmth. Step 1 is to have warm air aloft which seems to be a lock. Now we'll have to hope we can limit the amount of time the warm front spends to our south....but I think there are some red flags as to why prolong warmth may not work out in SNE. As always.....have to give the caveat that it is possible.