Harbourton Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 The eye of Katia is showing up nicely now on the water vapor. Seems to be getting stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Beautiful pic of Katia that is on the verge of becoming an annular hurricane. An annular hurricane, also known as a truck tire or doughnut hurricane,[1] is a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific Oceans that features a large, symmetric eye surrounded by a thick ring of intense convection. This type of storm is not prone to the fluctuations in intensity associated with eyewall replacement cycles, unlike typical intense tropical cyclones. Annular hurricanes also tend to persist, even when encountering environmental conditions which easily dissipate most other hurricanes. Forecasters have difficulty predicting the behavior of annular hurricanes; they are a recently recognized phenomenon, and as such, little is known about their tendencies. Because of this, they can be more dangerous than And we also now have 95L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 @ 72hrs, the 0z Euro takes a tw into the GOM roughly 1008mbs, 72hrs 1005mbs in the central GOM, 98hrs, at 998mbs over some very warm waters, about 100miles due south of Biloxi,MS/MObile AB...somewhere between 98 and 144 it makes landfall over the panhandle by the way, wunderground.com has some pretty amazing EURO images for free..3hr incrments using google maps and a ton of surface maps: 0z euro 96hrs 114hrs: 126hrs: 132hrs: Verbatim, a weak TS would be depcted here. Strengths not as important right now as does this actually elope? for $hits and giggles, here's what it looks like when it gets to our area: 168hrs: These maps are pretty dam cool: here's the link if you haven't seen it yet: http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 ^ 12z Euro takes that system up to Biloxi as something decent. Probably a bit more than a weak TS. Given the small size of the system it could spin up rather quickly and be something more than what the models are suggesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 6, 2011 Author Share Posted September 6, 2011 ^ 12z Euro takes that system up to Biloxi as something decent. Probably a bit more than a weak TS. Given the small size of the system it could spin up rather quickly and be something more than what the models are suggesting. could be another mess sometime next week here in regards to hvy rain. With the cold front coming down from the northern plains everything should eventually come northeast at some point into the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Tombo or bri, Do you know if the EURO qpf maps are 3-hour total or 6-hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 I believe the ones on wunderground are 3 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Maria is being ripped up by the shear. Neked swirl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 The tail end of the 12z GFS (post-truncation) takes the remnants of Nate across the area. Something to be watched for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 The first week of October better make up for this nonsense. So much for SSTs driving everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 The first week of October better make up for this nonsense. So much for SSTs driving everything. You think the majorly weak and inconsistent MJO is to blame for how weak the season has been? Obvisouly we're up to "n" but aside from Irene and Katia temp hitting Cat 4, nothing has been too impressive or long lived. (Not enough upper air support) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 You think the majorly weak and inconsistent MJO is to blame for how weak the season has been? Obvisouly we're up to "n" but aside from Irene and Katia temp hitting Cat 4, nothing has been too impressive or long lived. (Not enough upper air support) Yes. That is precisely why I think this season has sucked so far. That's also why I am holding out hope for the end of Sept/beginning of Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 14, 2011 Author Share Posted September 14, 2011 Yes. That is precisely why I think this season has sucked so far. That's also why I am holding out hope for the end of Sept/beginning of Oct. Off topic, but you going to come to the g2g? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 Off topic, but you going to come to the g2g? I don't think so... that weekend is the only weekend I'm going to be around in October and I'd like to spend some quality time with the new girlfriend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 14, 2011 Author Share Posted September 14, 2011 I don't think so... that weekend is the only weekend I'm going to be around in October and I'd like to spend some quality time with the new girlfriend. ahh i see, understandable...have fun lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 I don't think so... that weekend is the only weekend I'm going to be around in October and I'd like to spend some quality time with the new girlfriend. bring her along and make it a date! Just tell the wife it's another weather weenie meet'n'greet...you won't technically be lying.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 The first week of October better make up for this nonsense. So much for SSTs driving everything. That is all you need? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 May have to keep an eye on 98L Majority of models want to make it a an island raker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 May have to keep an eye on 98L Majority of models want to make it a an island raker. Doubtful. Upper atmosphere will kill it by Friday/Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 19, 2011 Author Share Posted September 19, 2011 Doubtful. Upper atmosphere will kill it by Friday/Saturday. Adam, why have these past 5 years been so blah tropical wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Adam, why have these past 5 years been so blah tropical wise Well, this year is due to the crappy MJO (for which I don't have a good explanation - probably something stratospheric or solar that I don't fully understand). Last year was a great year, we just didn't get any landfalls. Same with 2008. 2009 was another crappy MJO year, though the SST pattern that year didn't have the potential that this one does/did. 2007 had Dean and Felix, so I don't think you can really call that year blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 19, 2011 Author Share Posted September 19, 2011 Well, this year is due to the crappy MJO (for which I don't have a good explanation - probably something stratospheric or solar that I don't fully understand). Last year was a great year, we just didn't get any landfalls. Same with 2008. 2009 was another crappy MJO year, though the SST pattern that year didn't have the potential that this one does/did. 2007 had Dean and Felix, so I don't think you can really call that year blah. well im just going by the past where it seems like we had more landfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 well im just going by the past where it seems like we had more landfalls. At this point, the scientific literature treats landfalls as a stochastic process, so I can't really give you a good answer why one season is favorable for landfalls and others are not. Obviously, it has to do with the position of the subtropical ridge and genesis locations, but we don't know the drivers for those types of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 No big shear for a little while on 98L. The current CMSS wind estimation is up to 38KTS. CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation: INVEST 98L Monday 19sep11 Time: 1621 UTC Latitude: 12.16 Longitude: -37.95 Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 27 [1<--->30] ----------------------------------------------------------------- | Estimated MSLP: 1005 hPa | Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 38 kts | Estimate Confidence: Fair ( +/- 7mb +/- 9 kts ) ----------------------------------------------------------------- Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.22 Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.35 Channel 6 (~350 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.35 RMW: 111 km RMW Source is: TPC Environmental Pressure: 1011 (TPC) Satellite: NOAA-19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 No big shear for a little while on 98L. The current CMSS wind estimation is up to 38KTS. CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation: INVEST 98L Monday 19sep11 Time: 1621 UTC Latitude: 12.16 Longitude: -37.95 Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 27 [1<--->30] ----------------------------------------------------------------- | Estimated MSLP: 1005 hPa | Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 38 kts | Estimate Confidence: Fair ( +/- 7mb +/- 9 kts ) ----------------------------------------------------------------- Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.22 Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.35 Channel 6 (~350 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.35 RMW: 111 km RMW Source is: TPC Environmental Pressure: 1011 (TPC) Satellite: NOAA-19 Oh yeah, it'll probably waste Ophelia this week before it gets blown apart this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Oh yeah, it'll probably waste Ophelia this week before it gets blown apart this weekend. I guess this season that held so much promise with the favorable ENSO and warm SSTs has gotten the best of you and Josh. But the season is not yet over and I'll keep the watch anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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