am19psu Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 yea i have the 6hr plots, but obviously can't post them...but it starts to get a wnw turn to it around hr 234 from the trof crossing the northern tier..when you say progressive flow are you talking bout the westerlies? What would need to happen for this to hit the coast, just time it after a cold front? I just mean the phase speed of the troughs are fairly quick next week. In order for it to hit the coast, it would have to time perfectly before a cold front, like Irene did, but the odds are against you when the flow is more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 29, 2011 Author Share Posted August 29, 2011 I just mean the phase speed of the troughs are fairly quick next week. In order for it to hit the coast, it would have to time perfectly before a cold front, like Irene did, but the odds are against you when the flow is more progressive. makes sense, just like in winter with phasing during a progressive flow its gotta be timed perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 I just mean the phase speed of the troughs are fairly quick next week. In order for it to hit the coast, it would have to time perfectly before a cold front, like Irene did, but the odds are against you when the flow is more progressive. Like any East Coast threat, thread the needle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 29, 2011 Author Share Posted August 29, 2011 I just mean the phase speed of the troughs are fairly quick next week. In order for it to hit the coast, it would have to time perfectly before a cold front, like Irene did, but the odds are against you when the flow is more progressive. is their any MJO phase that would favor a us hit? I would imagine it would be the opposite of what we want in winter time since that correlates to an east coast trof...so any phase towards the right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 is their any MJO phase that would favor a us hit? I would imagine it would be the opposite of what we want in winter time since that correlates to an east coast trof...so any phase towards the right? I don't know of a hard and fast rule, but for September, Phases 1 and 2 look close to an EC pattern: P1 P2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 Like any East Coast threat, thread the needle? Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 30, 2011 Author Share Posted August 30, 2011 looks like the euro and the gfs to some extent are trying to develop some home brewed tropical development in the western gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 looks like the euro and the gfs to some extent is trying to develop some home brewed tropical development in the western gulf Yeah, this is going to happen, but it's going to be a hot mess. Heavy rain for a week, but doesn't look like much chance to be a hurricane. Remember Nicole last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 30, 2011 Author Share Posted August 30, 2011 Yeah, this is going to happen, but it's going to be a hot mess. Heavy rain for a week, but doesn't look like much chance to be a hurricane. Remember Nicole last year? went through jamaica, cuba, and eastern side of florida? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 went through jamaica, cuba, and eastern side of florida? Yeah. I don't mean as a track analog. I mean as a blobby mess of a storm that never gets organized and just dumps a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 30, 2011 Author Share Posted August 30, 2011 Yeah. I don't mean as a track analog. I mean as a blobby mess of a storm that never gets organized and just dumps a lot of rain. do you think any of that mess could get entrained in the cold front next week? I have seen some of the gfs ens members bring some of it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 do you think any of that mess could get entrained in the cold front next week? I have seen some of the gfs ens members bring some of it in. Yeah, it's possible. I'm not entirely sure what happens after the weekend with this thing. I like the TX solutions better right now, but it certainly could get entrained too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Yeah. I don't mean as a track analog. I mean as a blobby mess of a storm that never gets organized and just dumps a lot of rain. Sounds hawt!1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Regardless of whether Katia hits land or not anyone want to bet it will reach the highest strength of any storm this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Sounds hawt!1! Watch it pull a Don on the coast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Regardless of whether Katia hits land or not anyone want to bet it will reach the highest strength of any storm this year? That's not hard to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 0z and 6z gf's say watch out for the tropical entity in the gulf. Seems like models are all over though. Some have it meandering the south/tx.. Either way, looks like a rain maker due to the lack of a steering flow down the southern conus. But by the time it makes it's way here(if it cones to that), the -epo and downstream +PNA would send an East coast trough and pick it out of our area. That would be good for the east coast. Any heavy rain maker would be a serious threat. I believe this poses more of a threat than Katia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Anybody have the total precip output for 6z GFS through day ten in the MA just for giggles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Anybody have the total precip output for 6z GFS through day ten in the MA just for giggles I am sorry but any tpo at this time for our area must be taken with some seriousness. 2-5 inches of rain would be just as bad as Irene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 31, 2011 Author Share Posted August 31, 2011 Anybody have the total precip output for 6z GFS through day ten in the MA just for giggles for phl its 7.6 acy is 10.51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 Adam, I don't want to ask this in the tropical thread because its to regionalized. if possibly katia hits the se, would it stream ene with the flow from the westerlies? or would it just move due west and fall apart and then get picked up by something? I saw in the tropical thread you said this has no shot for the northeast, are you saying landfall or any impacts at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Just want to point out why the shift west between the 12z GFS vs. the 18z at the same time frame.. 12z GFS: 1 18z GFS same time frame: Notice how the energy in the gulf is a bit strong vortmax at the base of the trough, and tries to neg tilt the trough. This actuallys tries to pull Katia towards the west a bit. Not sure if im buying it, but just wanted to point that out. We've seen a west trend in the models today overall, but all are still showing a recurve with a pretty dominant looking western US ridge and downstream US trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 Just want to point out why the shift west between the 12z GFS vs. the 18z at the same time frame.. Notice how the energy in the gulf is a bit strong vortmax at the base of the trough, and tries to neg tilt the trough. This actuallys tries to pull Katia towards the west a bit. Not sure if im buying it, but just wanted to point that out. We've seen a west trend in the models today overall, but all are still showing a recurve with a pretty dominant looking western US ridge and downstream US trough. also could be the north atl ridge is a little stronger than 12z. Cause of that the whole ridge trof axis has slid west somewhat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Katia on the 12z gf's gets close enough to the east coast that the western precipitation shield brushes nj and parts of sne ... Very very interesting. Not sure if the models are over Doing a west trend or what, but it's a pretty complicated synoptic set up with td#13 progged to become a. Cut off low and pulling katia to the west of Burmuda and east of the EC for now.. I never would have thought it would get this close with a pretty significant western ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Katia on the 12z gf's gets close enough to the east coast that the western precipitation shield brushes nj and parts of sne ... Very very interesting. Not sure if the models are over Doing a west trend or what, but it's a pretty complicated synoptic set up with td#13 progged to become a. Cut off low and pulling katia to the west of Burmuda and east of the EC for now.. I never would have thought it would get this close with a pretty significant western ridge. I see the ts running up the apps then up to NE with Katia in tow. A long duration rainfall for someone- Susquehanna Valley? Can anyone say Agnes redux here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 18z gfs on Katia comes west but hooks sooner than 12z...sorta like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 0z GFS takes Katia north along 70 W a la Edouard '96 before shooting it out to the NE and avoiding New England 0z Euro does a sharp hook with Katia after it reaches 70W. 6z GFS brings Katia north along 68-69 W and then NNE into Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Of course, one of the big questions here is where the EC frontal boundry decides to set up shop. As the energy associated with the related trough will be a better known variable within the next 24-36 hours (as it enters better data regions), we'll get a much better idea. I believe we've seen, in recent history, that the models this far out try to push said frontal boundries more off the EC than ends up happening. Thus the pattern would tend to repeat itself and there's a better than even chance that the front sets up up shop nearer the EC than farther from it. 06z GFS nothwithstanding (timing seems very suspect), the 0z GEFS appear to be in decent agreement to that notion. http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M 3z SREFS paint a 30-50% of over .25" http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M with a deep tap root to tropical moisture at 700mb. It almost goes without saying that by Sunday eve. we'll have a better idea of whether we need to think nuisance or problem. (then why did I mention it, right? - LOL) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Of course, one of the big questions here is where the EC frontal boundry decides to set up shop. As the energy associated with the related trough will be a better known variable within the next 24-36 hours (as it enters better data regions), we'll get a much better idea. I believe we've seen, in recent history, that the models this far out try to push said frontal boundries more off the EC than ends up happening. Thus the pattern would tend to repeat itself and there's a better than even chance that the front sets up up shop nearer the EC than farther from it. 06z GFS nothwithstanding (timing seems very suspect), the 0z GEFS appear to be in decent agreement to that notion. http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M 3z SREFS paint a 30-50% of over .25" http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M with a deep tap root to tropical moisture at 700mb. It almost goes without saying that by Sunday eve. we'll have a better idea of whether we need to think nuisance or problem. (then why did I mention it, right? - LOL) If the front sets up closer to the coast, where is the axis of heaviest rain in your opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 If the front sets up closer to the coast, where is the axis of heaviest rain in your opinion? Well - I would imagine inland areas along and E of the Apps from the lower MidAtl up to NY state where the GEFS suggest the highest PWAT values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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