Sunny and Warm Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 The 12z GFS came in almost exactly on the track I put out this morning... which means I am almost certainly wrong sorry. Can you link me to your morning forecast? I can't find it. I think it goes over Florida between the Keys and Miami, but might loop around the Keys and hit Tampa area similar to Charley. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 sorry. Can you link me to your morning forecast? I can't find it. I think it goes over Florida between the Keys and Miami, but might loop around the Keys and hit Tampa area similar to Charley. Thanks Unfortunately, no. It's our proprietary forecast that goes out to clients. But seriously, it's like a mirror image of the 12z GFS. I took a 'cane into basically TLH Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Unfortunately, no. It's our proprietary forecast that goes out to clients. But seriously, it's like a mirror image of the 12z GFS. I took a 'cane into basically TLH Saturday. Okay thanks. From this point away, that's not a bad call. The GFS has been toggling between Mobile and Tampa for the last couple days. I work in Allentown and Hilton Head (rough commute), so I'm hoping for lots of rain, but no wind where my wife is. I won't get back for ten more days, and am stuck up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 Unfortunately, no. It's our proprietary forecast that goes out to clients. But seriously, it's like a mirror image of the 12z GFS. I took a 'cane into basically TLH Saturday. do you drive into the ohio valley also or do you have it going ne with the influence of the trof? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 latest Euro. If true, that means the northern trough will prevent a westward movement, as the approach was from Jamaica. This could be an I95 special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 latest Euro. If true, that means the northern trough will prevent a westward movement, as the approach was from Jamaica. This could be an I95 special. it would most likely be a hvy rain threat. The 12z euro track which is going to change doesnt deepen the system much because its pretty much always in contact with land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 it would most likely be a hvy rain threat. The 12z euro track which is going to change doesnt deepen the system much because its pretty much always in contact with land. I agree. For us to get anything significant other than some breezy heavy rains( as in sustained winds tropical storm force), your would need a fast mover over open water. Land friction slows down the storms. weaken it into a rain threat. The way the models are leaning 2 ways. 1. Gulf threat. means it would take a long time to reach our area, which would mean just a heavy rain threat. 2. into the SE coast, same deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 0z Euro brings 97L up through the Appalachians after a Florida hit. 0z GFS does a Donna redux. JB probably giddier than Andy Reid at a Brazilian steakhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 0z Euro brings 97L up through the Appalachians after a Florida hit. 0z GFS does a Donna redux. JB probably giddier than Andy Reid at a Brazilian steakhouse. Is it even possible to be giddier than Andy Reid at a Brazilian steakhouse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 My eyebrow has been inching upward run after run. I am starting to believe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 it would most likely be a hvy rain threat. The 12z euro track which is going to change doesnt deepen the system much because its pretty much always in contact with land. Looks like a potential flood threat with recent heavy rains and forecast slow movement up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Is it even possible to be giddier than Andy Reid at a Brazilian steakhouse? Give me the Powerball jackpot and I could make a run at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Looks like a potential flood threat with recent heavy rains and forecast slow movement up the coast. Depending on track...there's a decent signal for left-of-track heavy rainfall...if the system goes up through the Apps we get some flooding (we'd be in the tornadic quad) but Pittsburgh would get the worst of it from a rain standpoint. If it takes a Floyd track we're f****d. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Euro at 12z brings the system in near Jacksonville and NW into GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Did anyone see the GFDLOL ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Today's 12z GFS brings Irene to GA/SC border early Saturday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 For us locally, I'm extremely worried about the flood threat that Irene poses for us. As long as it doesn't trend farther east, we are going to have serious issues to deal with Sunday-Tuesday. EDIT: Oh, I see we already have a thread for that. nvm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 For us locally, I'm extremely worried about the flood threat that Irene poses for us. As long as it doesn't trend farther east, we are going to have serious issues to deal with Sunday-Tuesday. EDIT: Oh, I see we already have a thread for that. nvm. Any chance this escapes east and misses land in general? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Any chance this escapes east and misses land in general? we really need this to happen. disaster in the making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Any chance this escapes east and misses land in general? Yes, definitely. About 20% of the Euro ensemble members show a fish. We'll know more with tonight's 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 Yes, definitely. About 20% of the Euro ensemble members show a fish. We'll know more with tonight's 0z runs. Im assuming this is because the models may be picking up on a weaker ridge/ stronger trof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Im assuming this is because the models may be picking up on a weaker ridge/ stronger trof. Other way around, I think. Weaker, faster trough opens up the ridge more quickly and recurves faster. A stronger, slower s/w will delay recurvature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 A good analog for the strength/track of Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Maybe this should bring back some historical analog memories. With the ground saturated, this is the type of flooding we may receive as in 1955. By the way, extreme record heat preceded the hurricanes as happened this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 :arrowhead:Just saw the 6Z GFS Not pretty up and down the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 12z is trending east. Recurve/coastal brush is definitely on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 12z is trending east. Recurve/coastal brush is definitely on the table. Dt just posted the gfs has errors in its jet stream causing irene to go furtger eaat. Advises caution on using it 120 hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 29, 2011 Author Share Posted August 29, 2011 12z euro has katia on tampas longitude bout 400-500 miles north of the eastern bahamas as a very strong hurricane.... extropalting post 240, katiato my eyes would pose a threat to the se US..nice ridge in the central atl nosing towards the east coast...trof progressing across the northern tier most likely wouldnt capture it but may turn it towards a nw motion. Its going to come down towards the timing of that trof, which looks to be pretty strong as modelled currently.....definitely something to keep an eye on. Im sure Adam will be discussing this down the line to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 12z euro has katia on tampas longitude bout 400-500 miles north of the eastern bahamas as a very strong hurricane.... extropalting post 240, katiato my eyes would pose a threat to the se US..nice ridge in the central atl nosing towards the east coast...trof progressing across the northern tier most likely wouldnt capture it but may turn it towards a nw motion. Its going to come down towards the timing of that trof, which looks to be pretty strong as modelled currently.....definitely something to keep an eye on. Im sure Adam will be discussing this down the line to. The 24 hr plots don't do the MR justice... it's definitely turned north from 228-240 on the Euro. This is a definite threat to the US, but it's all about timing the troughs. This isn't a slam dunk US threat like Irene was, where we were all talking about it 14 days in advance. The #1 reason being the flow across N America is much more progressive than this past week, where we had good ridging up in the Davis Straits blocking everything up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 29, 2011 Author Share Posted August 29, 2011 The 24 hr plots don't do the MR justice... it's definitely turned north from 228-240 on the Euro. This is a definite threat to the US, but it's all about timing the troughs. This isn't a slam dunk US threat like Irene was, where we were all talking about it 14 days in advance. The #1 reason being the flow across N America is much more progressive than this past week, where we had good ridging up in the Davis Straits blocking everything up. yea i have the 6hr plots, but obviously can't post them...but it starts to get a wnw turn to it around hr 234 from the trof crossing the northern tier..when you say progressive flow are you talking bout the westerlies? What would need to happen for this to hit the coast, just time it after a cold front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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