Harbourton Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 93L is the only disturbance out there with a chance to hit land albeit most likely south of the US. Latest radar from Guadalope shows no close circulation yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 there's a nice wave coming off africa right now that I think is what the GFS is picking up on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Euro trash update from last night: 93l looks to strengthen in the Gulf and hit Central Mexico -- near Vera Cruz. The system coming off of Africa is north of the Turks/Caicos in ten days. GFS takes the Africa system and plows it into Miami and then turns it north across all of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Euro trash update from last night: 93l looks to strengthen in the Gulf and hit Central Mexico -- near Vera Cruz. The system coming off of Africa is north of the Turks/Caicos in ten days. GFS takes the Africa system and plows it into Miami and then turns it north across all of Florida. Is this info only of interest to Philadelphians? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Is this info only of interest to Philadelphians? We get the remnants of Irene if the GFS is right. I'm "meh" about what Harvey does...you might like the Vera Cruz landfall assuming it can climb enough to escape Mexico and get into the BoC but it could be one of those last-second deals a la Arlene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Phlwx, you didnt mention the euro went down to 966mb... lol On a serious note, the important thing out of all this is that the models are becoming a bit more bullish on longer range development. the tropical wave coming off of African coast* storm still has quite a trip ahead of it just coming off the coast of africa. Many of the storms this year have drastically underperformed. Some storms that we're only supposed to make 50-65mph TS' never made it above the 50mph threshhold. I do have a question for some of the better tropical forecasters.(prob my weakest area of meteoroly as a enthusiast).. 2 graphics here. SAL (saharan air layer) and the mid level WV; Which is a better indicator of drier air that would inhibit development? I know SAL is important, but is that more imprortant than the mid level wv? It seems the SAL looks a lot worse than the MLWV is showing.I know the sal can choke off the tc in question, but can it overcome it if the ml is saturated enough? do the 2 kind of go hand in hand or are 1 of these a better judgement of "dry air"?(Obviously other factors are at play ie; vorts, shear,tutts,anticyclonic etc.. Just wanted to focus on these two) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Which is a better indicator of drier air that would inhibit development? I know SAL is important, but is that more imprortant than the mid level wv? It seems the SAL looks a lot worse than the MLWV is showing.I know the sal can choke off the tc in question, but can it overcome it if the ml is saturated enough? do the 2 kind of go hand in hand or are 1 of these a better judgement of "dry air"?(Obviously other factors are at play ie; vorts, shear,tutts,anticyclonic etc.. Just wanted to focus on these two) They're both used together. The IR channels that the SAL image comes from are meant to pick up particulates in the air (i.e. Saharan dust), while the WV channel allows you to determine the height at which the atmosphere is opaque to water vapor (i.e. warmer/darker colors mean the water vapor opacity is lower in the atmosphere and the overall RH of the column is lower). Also, dry air and shear go hand in hand, as well. Numerical simulations have proven that it doesn't matter how dry the environment is, if there is no shear, the dry air will not adversely affect the pre-TC system (this is part of the marsupial pouch paradigm). There is a balance where the drier the mid-level air, the less shear you need to disrupt the system. Let me know if you have more questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 P.S. I don't like naming systems ahead of time, because it gets confusing, but the system moving off Africa is likely "Irene." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 They're both used together. The IR channels that the SAL image comes from are meant to pick up particulates in the air (i.e. Saharan dust), while the WV channel allows you to determine the height at which the atmosphere is opaque to water vapor (i.e. warmer/darker colors mean the water vapor opacity is lower in the atmosphere and the overall RH of the column is lower). Also, dry air and shear go hand in hand, as well. Numerical simulations have proven that it doesn't matter how dry the environment is, if there is no shear, the dry air will not adversely affect the pre-TC system (this is part of the marsupial pouch paradigm). There is a balance where the drier the mid-level air, the less shear you need to disrupt the system. Let me know if you have more questions. Thanks Adam. That answers my questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Some storms that we're only supposed to make 50-65mph TS' never made it above the 550mph threshhold. Dude, lay off the alcky-hol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Dude, lay off the alcky-hol Good lord I didn't even notice.! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 GFS and CMC are both showing major hits to the SE coast with the 0z Euro hinting at a tropical system off FL at the end of the run. It should be an interesting 1 1/2 weeks of tracking assuming this actually develops, unlike 93L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 GFS and CMC are both showing major hits to the SE coast with the 0z Euro hinting at a tropical system off FL at the end of the run. It should be an interesting 1 1/2 weeks of tracking assuming this actually develops, unlike 93L. 93L was supposed to develop in a few runs as well. this new one needs to unload the SAL crap first. Might not develop until it gets closer to the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 You guys already trying to claim that Cape Verde thing as your own? C'mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 You guys already trying to claim that Cape Verde thing as your own? C'mon. if we talk about it maybe it will do more than become a pos TS in the mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 0z recap with the CV system: Euro brings it to Charleston in ten days. GFS brings it through Florida, curves it inland up the East Coast in eight to ten days. The last time we had modeling show a system coming near the EC (93L), it ended up tracking through the Carib. (food for thought) Troughiness isn't in place at a strong enough level, IMO, on the models to pull it up the coast...can't say it won't happen but both models are relying on 500 lows over Northern Quebec to pull it northward...unless the troughs are deeper I'm not sure that can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 0z recap with the CV system: Euro brings it to Charleston in ten days. GFS brings it through Florida, curves it inland up the East Coast in eight to ten days. The last time we had modeling show a system coming near the EC (93L), it ended up tracking through the Carib. (food for thought) Troughiness isn't in place at a strong enough level, IMO, on the models to pull it up the coast...can't say it won't happen but both models are relying on 500 lows over Northern Quebec to pull it northward...unless the troughs are deeper I'm not sure that can happen. 0z euro deepens it to 957mb fwiw @ landfall...Still long long aways... i'm not sure if its the trough that pulls it, or the fact that models have a WAR developing in the medium range. And then as the storm in the 0z Euro deepens entering the SE coastal waters, the WAR starts breaking down, developing a weakness in the ridge, and the mature hurricane attacking it. Not a forecast, just breaking down the Euro suite as i see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 0z euro deepens it to 957mb fwiw @ landfall...Still long long aways... i'm not sure if its the trough that pulls it, or the fact that models have a WAR developing in the medium range. And then as the storm in the 0z Euro deepens entering the SE coastal waters, the WAR starts breaking down, developing a weakness in the ridge, and the mature hurricane attacking it. Not a forecast, just breaking down the Euro suite as i see it. The biggest challenges are: 1) SAL presence around the system...going to keep development slow...look at what it did to 93L (which was modeled to be a recurve/brush) in terms of development...it needed to get into the Western Carib to get going. 2) The slower development will keep the system on a more southern track, which then brings the islands into the equation as an inhibitor for strengthening. If the SAL can clear out quick enough and the ridge to its north is played right, it's got a shot of being an EC system. Not convinced of it though. IMO, this seems more of a Gulf threat than an EC threat as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 The lemon in the central Atlantic looks to have a huge circulation. This won't be a microcane when it developes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 12z euro brings a 988mb hurricane into the central gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 The lemon in the central Atlantic looks to have a huge circulation. This won't be a microcane when if it developes FIFY...gotta a bit of work ahead of it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 GFS ensembles all agree with the op pretty much out to hour 180. After that, some members go west into TX while other members have an AL/FL hit. About 2/3 of the Euro ensembles agree with the op about a Gulf hurricane, the other 1/3 advertise an East Coast hit. CMC ensembles have all kinds of whacked out solutions, including a 931mb hurricane slamming into Maine and a 958mb hurricane moving parallel to the East Coast. If this eventually develops, it'll be very fun to track, and it would be possible that our area would receive some sort of impact, most likely from the remnants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Euro has Day 10 at Hatteras. GFS has Biloxi. lolz all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 bet it heads towards hatteras but curves away to the east and only causes waves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 This is easily the most bullish I've been this season. If the 5 day tracks and the 7-9 day synoptic patterns across NA are to be believed (and I think they are), this is going to be a significant threat for someone along the U.S. Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Not sure of the reason other than the SAL, but this has not been a year where storms rapidly intensify. The Carribean has been a graveyard and Shreddola has taken care of the others. Even the Gulf early on didn't produce much. Howvever, we are ramping up to the climate max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Not sure of the reason other than the SAL, but this has not been a year where storms rapidly intensify. The Carribean has been a graveyard and Shreddola has taken care of the others. Even the Gulf early on didn't produce much. Howvever, we are ramping up to the climate max. Yeah, I'm not expecting much until late next week after it gets past the Greater Antilles. But the synoptic pattern is very favorable Thu-Sun across the Gulf and extreme W Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Yeah, I'm not expecting much until late next week after it gets past the Greater Antilles. But the synoptic pattern is very favorable Thu-Sun across the Gulf and extreme W Atlantic. What's your hunch right now, gulf or Atlantic basin storm? Or, do we get a far eastern gulf storm that re-enters the Atlantic and creates havoc in the Carolinas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 What's your hunch right now, gulf or Atlantic basin storm? Or, do we get a far eastern gulf storm that re-enters the Atlantic and creates havoc in the Carolinas? The 12z GFS came in almost exactly on the track I put out this morning... which means I am almost certainly wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Pretty sparse comvection around 97L. Looks like there is no help from surounding enviroment as far as water vapor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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