Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 NOAA goes with 12-18 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, 3-6 major Outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 NOAA goes with 12-18 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, 3-6 major Outlook I give that about a 70% chance of verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 I give that about a 70% chance of verifying. that sounds familiar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Final: 15/8/4 with two major hurricane landfalls. i'm 14/7/4...could be a dead late season (Oct//Nov) if weak Nino does end up popping. If we manage a La Nada in Fall we probably get 16+ but looking at SST's as of today I think we probably get borderline weak Nino conditions in EPac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Although the ITCZ is still way far south, Africa has some nice lows coming across. am19psu EDIT: Image was causing a password prompt, so I removed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Is Harbourton's satellite image causing a password prompt for anyone else? In any case, the place to watch is the Western Caribbean next week. It'll take a while for anything to form, but we might have something by next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Is Harbourton's satellite image causing a password prompt for anyone else? In any case, the place to watch is the Western Caribbean next week. It'll take a while for anything to form, but we might have something by next weekend. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THEREALTOR1 Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Is Harbourton's satellite image causing a password prompt for anyone else? In any case, the place to watch is the Western Caribbean next week. It'll take a while for anything to form, but we might have something by next weekend. Yeah, I just had that pop up when I came into the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Sorry about that guys. I thought I could just copy image and paste without password rights - my bad. Anyway, there are some.SST anomolies on the plus side off the coast of Africa stretching into central Atlantic... Also warm SSTs from Delaware and eastern Maryland shore to Long Island showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Sorry about that guys. I thought I could just copy image and paste without password rights - my bad. Anyway, there are some.SST anomolies on the plus side off the coast of Africa stretching into central Atlantic... Also warm SSTs from Delaware and eastern Maryland shore to Long Island showing up. That SSTA graph is better than I'd seen recently. A lot of the recent research out of GFDL is about relative SSTs and the Atlantic Tripole. When you have warm over cold over warm, it causes the the subtropical ridge to set up farther north and shear decreases across the Tropical Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Little swirl off of Daytona has been given a lemon by the NHC. Also, global models are developing a tropical low in the SW Carribean over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Little swirl off of Daytona has been given a lemon by the NHC. Also, global models are developing a tropical low in the SW Carribean over the weekend. Yeah, that thing would actually have a chance if it stayed over water for more than another 12 hours. The SW Caribbean low looks more like a rain maker for Cuba/Jamaica/Hispaniola than anything else. It's modeled very broad and diffuse with no central convection. It looks more like a monsoon depression than a fully tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 June 1 - two tropical entities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 June 1 - two tropical entities. Awesome capture, this hurricane season is already growing on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 first fantasy tropical storm goes to the 12z canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Still not very excited about this thing in the Western Caribbean. Imagining it stays weak or even as a monsoon disturbance, rather than a TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Still not very excited about this thing in the Western Caribbean. Imagining it stays weak or even as a monsoon disturbance, rather than a TS. the euro brings the carribean wave to about cuba and it just rains its self out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 the euro brings the carribean wave to about cuba and it just rains its self out Yep. It really is modeled like a monsoon depression. That's exactly what they do in the South China Sea or Bay of Bengal. Of possible interest, TAFB is now analyzing the extreme EPAC/Western Caribbean as a monsoon trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Here are the 2011 hurricane names Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harvey Irene Jose Katia Lee (lol) Maria Nate Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Here are the 2011 hurricane names Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harvey Irene Jose Katia Lee (lol) Maria Nate Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney Emily was a beast in 2005 The name "Don" catches my eye for some reason..I hope he grows up to be a monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Emily was a beast in 2005 The name "Don" catches my eye for some reason..I hope he grows up to be a monster A lot of people (including me) think "Emily" should have been retired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Here are the 2011 hurricane names Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harvey Irene Jose Katia Lee (lol) Maria Nate Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney Little too familar, eh? And LOL at Lee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Latest discussion from NHC on the orange warning south of DR. ....SPECIAL FEATURE... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ROUGHLY CENTERED 100 NM S OF JAMAICA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE PANAMA CANAL REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM HAITI NEAR 20N72W TO 10N77W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERING A BROADER AREA N OF 17N TO ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 63W-78W AND S OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-84W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... JAMAICA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 There's a decent chance we'll get the first TD of the season next week in the Western Gulf. Nothing really interesting for OBYs, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 23, 2011 Author Share Posted June 23, 2011 There's a decent chance we'll get the first TD of the season next week in the Western Gulf. Nothing really interesting for OBYs, though. the remnants of it could get swept up on a cold front though possbly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 the remnants of it could get swept up on a cold front though possbly? The best chance would be remnant moisture rounding the subtropical ridge, riding up the Rockies, then getting entrained into a front... but my crystal ball doesn't go out that far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 the remnants of it could get swept up on a cold front though possbly? Looks like it will rain itself out over the Mexican Plateau this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 5, 2011 Author Share Posted July 5, 2011 Adam, any potential with that system that nam keeps developing off the caronlinas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 baroclinic_instability has been hyping the Para NAM over on the main board, so I'm curious to see how this unfolds. The Para NAM at 0z last night (07/05 00z) had a much weaker surface reflection than the op NAM at hr 84 (Note this is probably a time-sensitive link...you can access the Para NAM here: http://www.emc.ncep....ll/nampll_nmmb/ ) Edit: no longer a time sensitive link, I saved the image now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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