tombo82685 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 The 00z SHIPS initialization diagnosed the 850-200 mb shear as only 6 kt from the SE, and the CIMSS shear analysis is from the west at 5-10 kt, which isn't too bad either. However, the convective pattern is highly suggestive of a sheared storm, with intense convection breaking out east of the center and staying on that quadrant. I think what's happening is that there is shear in the 850-300 mb layer that is being missed by the traditional shear diagnostics. There are northwesterly winds at around 10 kt in the 250-350 mb layer being picked up by the 00z soundings in PR and Saint Maarten, to the NW and N of the storm respectively: A similar situation happened with Erika in 2009, where all of the traditional 850-200 mb shear metrics showed low shear, but the convection kept being displaced from the center. Clearly, this is not a very favorable environment for intensification. In light of this, I'm not sure if this will survive Hispaniola, and it frankly may not even make it there as a TC. Well, its early for this but might as well start it to see what kind of season we may have. Hopefully we can get into some tropical action this year on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Tracking hurricanes is a blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 As I said in the other forum, high pressure looks to be locked in for the most part well into the long range over the Atlantic. I would think as storms traveled westward they would find themselves in a favorable low shear enviornment underneath the high. Then, as they eventually reach the western edge of the ridge would travel NW or N giving the SE US a continued tropical threat this year. We could even catch a threat up here if 96 trully becomes a usefull analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 Tracking hurricanes is a blast. Yea i agree, this is adam's fortay so hopefully we can learn a lot from him this year. Also, it would be nice to see some system get up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 For the first time in a while, I actually think there will East Coast action this year. 1989 and 1999 are the two analogs I've seen come up most so far. My company's proprietary forecast also has an East Coast threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Well luckilly my house is getting raised, because in 1999 Floyd came with a lot of flooding in my basement since I live next to the Neshaminy Creek. Next year, not a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 For the first time in a while, I actually think there will East Coast action this year. 1989 and 1999 are the two analogs I've seen come up most so far. My company's proprietary forecast also has an East Coast threat. Do you have the named storms from that yr and their tracks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Do you have the named storms from that yr and their tracks? Unisys is the best site for historical information (for the layperson, at least). http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1989/index.html http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1999H/index.html Hugo and Floyd are the two biggies for those years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 Unisys is the best site for historical information (for the layperson, at least). http://weather.unisy...1989/index.html http://weather.unisy...999H/index.html Hugo and Floyd are the two biggies for those years. eeek, good amount of names storms, but not many hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 eeek, good amount of names storms, but not many hits. What do you mean? They both feature a major landfall, which happens on average once every two years, so I'd take it as a positive sign (if you're into landfalls). East Coast majors are even rarer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 What do you mean? They both feature a major landfall, which happens on average once every two years, so I'd take it as a positive sign (if you're into landfalls). East Coast majors are even rarer. Yea i was just looking at the east coast lol. Were thos years dominated by sprawling high pressure in the atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Are we poised to have a weak Nino or will we go enso neutral? I haven't paid much attention to Nina state (I know it's weakening as of late) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Are we poised to have a weak Nino or will we go enso neutral? I haven't paid much attention to Nina state (I know it's weakening as of late) Gun to my head, I'd say cool neutral, but a weak Nino is still possible. Especially so if we get a few more MJO bursts into P8/1 as we head into summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Yea i was just looking at the east coast lol. Were thos years dominated by sprawling high pressure in the atlantic? I'm not sure... I'll pop up the anomalies here in a second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 1989 1999 They're both pretty standard EC sfc pressure patterns, with the Bermuda high extent just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 1989 They're both pretty standard EC sfc pressure patterns, with the Bermuda high extent just offshore. Yea thats why i asked, the tracks of the lows indicate some kind of high around or just east of bermuda, allowing for a lot of close calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Fun to track, watching satellite and radar imagery but this is one threat I don't want in my back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Yay for swirls tracking 2,000 miles offshore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted April 19, 2011 Author Share Posted April 19, 2011 Bump, pacific season starts in 2 weeks...adam you have until the week of memorial day weekend to post your thoughts on this years tropical season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 tell me more about this "bermuda high" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Bump, pacific season starts in 2 weeks...adam you have until the week of memorial day weekend to post your thoughts on this years tropical season. I haven't changed my thinking a whole lot from what I posted above. If I have to put numbers out it'd be something like 17-18/9-10/4-5. I still think there will be a significant threat to the East Coast this year (first time in a while I've said that). I expect this year will break the streak of 5 years without a major landfall (though I would have thought that last year, too). And EPAC season doesn't start until May 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Something about living inland now makes me appreciate the tropical season a lot less. Still alot to study and track, but to me Tropical Season here in eastern PA is alot like watching lake effect snow occur over the eastern Great Lakes. Fascinating, but 9x out of 10, meaningless to me here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 I haven't changed my thinking a whole lot from what I posted above. If I have to put numbers out it'd be something like 17-18/9-10/4-5. I still think there will be a significant threat to the East Coast this year (first time in a while I've said that). I expect this year will break the streak of 5 years without a major landfall (though I would have thought that last year, too). And EPAC season doesn't start until May 15 doh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Final: 15/8/4 with two major hurricane landfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Final: 15/8/4 with two major hurricane landfalls. per previous page - 1 EC landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 18, 2011 Author Share Posted May 18, 2011 is it still looking like an east coast year or atleast threats? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 per previous page - 1 EC landfall? Yes. is it still looking like an east coast year or atleast threats? Yeah, it looks like the mean subtropical ridge will be displaced westward of it usual position and the mean trough will be over the Lakes/OH Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 18, 2011 Author Share Posted May 18, 2011 Yes. Yeah, it looks like the mean subtropical ridge will be displaced westward of it usual position and the mean trough will be over the Lakes/OH Valley. not to go off topic, be does that mean a normal temperature wise summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 not to go off topic, be does that mean a normal temperature wise summer? I expect mean anomalies to be slightly above normal, but mainly from elevated mins/humidity. It should definitely be cooler than last summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 18, 2011 Author Share Posted May 18, 2011 I expect mean anomalies to be slightly above normal, but mainly from elevated mins/humidity. It should definitely be cooler than last summer. lol thats not saying much since it was the hottest on record or closest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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