March Winter thread.

[Chicago Storm]

no one can divide by zero like dtk

Turtle would argue.

[earthlight]

That man is seriously talented. I wonder what he charges for this data?

HPC sent a message out this afternoon about initialization errors in his brain. Throw out his model runs.

[baroclinic_instability]

HPC sent a message out this afternoon about initialization errors in his brain. Throw out his model runs.

HAHA--I literally just LOL'ed. HPC will never live that one down.

[baroclinic_instability]

no one can divide by zero like dtk

Fill me in here.

[cmichweather]

Fill me in here.

just a joke about dtk actually working at ncep

[earthlight]

HAHA--I literally just LOL'ed. HPC will never live that one down.

It was awesome watching it unfold in real time especially with you guiding us to the promised land.

Consider yourself the Moses of the Dec 26 blizzard

[baroclinic_instability]

just a joke about dtk actually working at ncep

Ok I am still lost--I don't follow the joke. dtk is the man.

[baroclinic_instability]

It was awesome watching it unfold in real time especially with you guiding us to the promised land.

Consider yourself the Moses of the Dec 26 blizzard

Haha I don't know about that--but it sure was an epic event I will never forget for so many reasons.

[B-Rent]

Consider yourself the Moses of the Dec 26 blizzard

[earthlight]

My house a bit is the southwest of the "J" in "Jersey City" on the map...this may give you 1/10th of an idea of the severity of what went on here..I have never, and probably will ever, see 6 hours of sustained blizzard conditions with nearly constant lightning and thunder and over 30" of powder with drifts taller than myself.

Baroclinic instability literally was yelling for days about what needed to happen to get this up the east coast...60 hours out the models showed nothing..needless to say, it happened. A Christmas Miracle, and baroclinic instability was Santa Claus.

Thread hijack over.

[baroclinic_instability]

My house a bit is the southwest of the "J" in "Jersey City" on the map...this may give you 1/10th of an idea of the severity of what went on here..I have never, and probably will ever, see 6 hours of sustained blizzard conditions with nearly constant lightning and thunder and over 30" of powder with drifts taller than myself.

Baroclinic instability literally was yelling for days about what needed to happen to get this up the east coast...60 hours out the models showed nothing..needless to say, it happened. A Christmas Miracle, and baroclinic instability was Santa Claus.

Thread hijack over.

Haha--have you been on wikipedia?

"The National Weather Service's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center were skeptical of the storm impacting the Northeastern states within 48 hours of the storm's arrival as well even though some models depicted the storm doing so at that time. They issued a statement on Christmas Eve that they suspected the American models of having model initialization errors; thus, they believed these errors may have forced the storm to be erroneously modeled to come up the Northeastern coast."

[Stebo]

Is he able to divide by zero like turtlehurricane?

Turtle's house

[Moneyman]

Baro, central posters will give you 500 dollars if you can bring this magic to the next system.

[earthlight]

Haha--have you been on wikipedia?

"The National Weather Service's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center were skeptical of the storm impacting the Northeastern states within 48 hours of the storm's arrival as well even though some models depicted the storm doing so at that time. They issued a statement on Christmas Eve that they suspected the American models of having model initialization errors; thus, they believed these errors may have forced the storm to be erroneously modeled to come up the Northeastern coast."

"INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN NUMEROUS DIAGNOSTIC QUANTITIES..."

By the way, check this out..wow at the CMC which had the storm in the Central Atlantic. Observed track in light blue.

[baroclinic_instability]

"INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN NUMEROUS DIAGNOSTIC QUANTITIES..."

By the way, check this out..wow at the CMC which had the storm in the Central Atlantic. Observed track in light blue.

LOL at the CMC. Canadian fail.

That forecast track is beautiful. What a classic looking track for a self developing/positive feedback storm. The amount of curve in the track from 26/12Z to 27/0Z is spectacular.

[baroclinic_instability]

Baro, central posters will give you 500 dollars if you can bring this magic to the next system.

I will give it a look here--definitely a challenging forecast. I feel out of the loop having not looked at weather since Friday.

[earthlight]

LOL at the CMC. Canadian fail.

That forecast track is beautiful. What a classic looking track for a self developing/positive feedback storm. The amount of curve in the track from 26/12Z to 27/0Z is spectacular.

It was classic to say the very least. Like I said earlier, I seriously have trouble believing I will ever experience anything to that degree any time soon. The phase, the cyclogenesis, the cold air in place...it was snowing with 40 mph winds and temperatures in the teens for six hours with lightning and thunder. Unreal.

I've gotta run to bed, and I have completely hijacked the crap out of this thread..but here's one last image of the end result. Man, it's so fresh in my memory but it already has that historical "feel" to it as I peruse the archived model data and images.

[michsnowfreak]

Same hairy that was bitching about his winter being a total failure.

Meh.. It's over. Any storm that ramps up is rain here.. Why kid yourself.

Suppose anything can happen but I don't see any signs that point to gassing up the snow thrower again in the near future. Sure anything can happen down the road but that road for a time being is closed.

Its been a great winter, if it ends tomorrow I cant complain one bit. But I just dont see that happening. Its March, the gray, icy lock winters has has on this region for 3+ months is departing. Yes, my days of counting snowcover are numbered (should still at least crack top 10 whitest winters at DTW), as are your days of ice fishing...but as for snowstorms, they come out of nowhere as it is. This is usually the worst season for the models (and thats sad considering how badly theyve performed this year), so as a former crappuwx employee once said, "there will be storms and rumors of storms". And with it being La Nina, if anything chances of a storm are probably better than normal. Whats funny is SO much spring talk...all winter long Ive heard from several that they dont care for cold/snowcover, strictly a storm. Well March is as game as any month for a violent snowstorm. Call it our midatlantic January We can be buried one day and bare 3-5 days later.

Oh, and WOWWW did this thread get derailed. Its point was to keep it to March winter chatter. It started being hijacked by more spring talk and by page 3 we are talking about the northeast Maybe we can get this baby back on track

[Harry]

Its been a great winter, if it ends tomorrow I cant complain one bit. But I just dont see that happening. Its March, the gray, icy lock winters has has on this region for 3+ months is departing. Yes, my days of counting snowcover are numbered (should still at least crack top 10 whitest winters at DTW), as are your days of ice fishing...but as for snowstorms, they come out of nowhere as it is. This is usually the worst season for the models (and thats sad considering how badly theyve performed this year), so as a former crappuwx employee once said, "there will be storms and rumors of storms". And with it being La Nina, if anything chances of a storm are probably better than normal. Whats funny is SO much spring talk...all winter long Ive heard from several that they dont care for cold/snowcover, strictly a storm. Well March is as game as any month for a violent snowstorm. Call it our midatlantic January We can be buried one day and bare 3-5 days later.

Oh, and WOWWW did this thread get derailed. Its point was to keep it to March winter chatter. It started being hijacked by more spring talk and by page 3 we are talking about the northeast Maybe we can get this baby back on track

I will say i enjoy looking at earthlights pic of what a REAL snowstorm looks like. Have almost forgotten as i have not seen one since moving to MI in 2004.

[beavis1729]

I know everyone is on the bandwagon about how snowy things have been and that people have no right to complain about the lack of snow recently...but given that this is a winter enthusiast's thread, I'll vent my winter frustration here.

ORD has only seen 2.9" of snow since 2/9/11 (basically 3 separate tiny events), with not much more on the horizon. This is pathetic and needs to be acknowledged, especially when everyone says we can't complain about the lack of winter anymore.

As I've said many times before...if I knew in November that an upcoming suburban Chicago winter would feature average temps and snowfall, it would be horrible. Chicago is not a wintry place, period. We only have a 40% chance of seeing a White Christmas...and that includes many instances with only 1" or 2" on the ground (some bare spots). So, the chance of a truly White Christmas (3"+ depth) is probably around 20-25%.

A true wintry place would talk about how the snowpack changes and peaks throughout the season...whereas in Chicago, it doesn't make sense to discuss this, as we're without a snowpack on many days during DJF. A snowpack should be depended on...the only question should be how deep. But not in Chicago, Detroit, LAF, STL, etc.

38" of snow in an entire season is really crappy...yeah, it's climo, but face it, Chicago metro's climo sucks for winter lovers. Why do we sugarcoat this? Why do we try to convince ourselves otherwise? Just because the media and 90% of the general public complains about winter in Chicago, doesn't mean that winter is actually "wintry" here. For example, to think that the avg. Feb. snowfall in Chicago is only 8"...that's a winter month! 2" of snow per week during the heart of winter is not exactly a wintry climate.

Yes, the early Feb. blizzard was great and means that this winter gets a B- in my opinion (instead of a D+ without the blizzard). It was a phenomenal event, as I saw my first lightning strikes ever during a snowstorm. But with that said, true winter is measured by its consistency...like you can wake up on a winter morning and know it will be really cold outside. The question would just be exactly how cold. The fact that the blizzard's snowfall melted within 10 days, and that we've had hardly any snow since 2/9/11, needs to be considered when evaluating the winter as a whole.

Heck, many places in the northeast (NH and VT) have 4 feet on the ground and 100"++ this season...not saying we should see as much as them, but it makes our climo look even more pathetic.

Josh and I have these debates all the time...and I concede that I see the glass half empty when it comes to climo. I totally understand his perspective too...but in a practical sense, I don't know why people think that Chicago has a wintry climate in DJF. It's just not true.

At the end of the day, it bothers me to no end that the media and the general public think winter is so bad here. Even when we actually do get a little bit of wintry weather, no one wants to embrace it. Why do people have such a poor attitude? Is our culture really that wimpy?

Ok, rant over...

[Hoosier]

I know everyone is on the bandwagon about how snowy things have been and that people have no right to complain about the lack of snow recently...but given that this is a winter enthusiast's thread, I'll vent my winter frustration here.

ORD has only seen 2.9" of snow since 2/9/11 (basically 3 separate tiny events), with not much more on the horizon. This is pathetic and needs to be acknowledged, especially when everyone says we can't complain about the lack of winter anymore.

As I've said many times before...if I knew in November that an upcoming suburban Chicago winter would feature average temps and snowfall, it would be horrible. Chicago is not a wintry place, period. We only have a 40% chance of seeing a White Christmas...and that includes many instances with only 1" or 2" on the ground (some bare spots). So, the chance of a truly White Christmas (3"+ depth) is probably around 20-25%.

A true wintry place would talk about how the snowpack changes and peaks throughout the season...whereas in Chicago, it doesn't make sense to discuss this, as we're without a snowpack on many days during DJF. A snowpack should be depended on...the only question should be how deep. But not in Chicago, Detroit, LAF, STL, etc.

38" of snow in an entire season is really crappy...yeah, it's climo, but face it, Chicago metro's climo sucks for winter lovers. Why do we sugarcoat this? Why do we try to convince ourselves otherwise? Just because the media and 90% of the general public complains about winter in Chicago, doesn't mean that winter is actually "wintry" here. For example, to think that the avg. Feb. snowfall in Chicago is only 8"...that's a winter month! 2" of snow per week during the heart of winter is not exactly a wintry climate.

Yes, the early Feb. blizzard was great and means that this winter gets a B- in my opinion (instead of a D+ without the blizzard). It was a phenomenal event, as I saw my first lightning strikes ever during a snowstorm. But with that said, true winter is measured by its consistency...like you can wake up on a winter morning and know it will be really cold outside. The question would just be exactly how cold. The fact that the blizzard's snowfall melted within 10 days, and that we've had hardly any snow since 2/9/11, needs to be considered when evaluating the winter as a whole.

Heck, many places in the northeast (NH and VT) have 4 feet on the ground and 100"++ this season...not saying we should see as much as them, but it makes our climo look even more pathetic.

Josh and I have these debates all the time...and I concede that I see the glass half empty when it comes to climo. I totally understand his perspective too...but in a practical sense, I don't know why people think that Chicago has a wintry climate in DJF. It's just not true.

At the end of the day, it bothers me to no end that the media and the general public think winter is so bad here. Even when we actually do get a little bit of wintry weather, no one wants to embrace it. Why do people have such a poor attitude? Is our culture really that wimpy?

Ok, rant over...

Perhaps you should consider moving if possible?

[Harry]

I know everyone is on the bandwagon about how snowy things have been and that people have no right to complain about the lack of snow recently...but given that this is a winter enthusiast's thread, I'll vent my winter frustration here.

ORD has only seen 2.9" of snow since 2/9/11 (basically 3 separate tiny events), with not much more on the horizon. This is pathetic and needs to be acknowledged, especially when everyone says we can't complain about the lack of winter anymore.

As I've said many times before...if I knew in November that an upcoming suburban Chicago winter would feature average temps and snowfall, it would be horrible. Chicago is not a wintry place, period. We only have a 40% chance of seeing a White Christmas...and that includes many instances with only 1" or 2" on the ground (some bare spots). So, the chance of a truly White Christmas (3"+ depth) is probably around 20-25%.

A true wintry place would talk about how the snowpack changes and peaks throughout the season...whereas in Chicago, it doesn't make sense to discuss this, as we're without a snowpack on many days during DJF. A snowpack should be depended on...the only question should be how deep. But not in Chicago, Detroit, LAF, STL, etc.

38" of snow in an entire season is really crappy...yeah, it's climo, but face it, Chicago metro's climo sucks for winter lovers. Why do we sugarcoat this? Why do we try to convince ourselves otherwise? Just because the media and 90% of the general public complains about winter in Chicago, doesn't mean that winter is actually "wintry" here. For example, to think that the avg. Feb. snowfall in Chicago is only 8"...that's a winter month! 2" of snow per week during the heart of winter is not exactly a wintry climate.

Yes, the early Feb. blizzard was great and means that this winter gets a B- in my opinion (instead of a D+ without the blizzard). It was a phenomenal event, as I saw my first lightning strikes ever during a snowstorm. But with that said, true winter is measured by its consistency...like you can wake up on a winter morning and know it will be really cold outside. The question would just be exactly how cold. The fact that the blizzard's snowfall melted within 10 days, and that we've had hardly any snow since 2/9/11, needs to be considered when evaluating the winter as a whole.

Heck, many places in the northeast (NH and VT) have 4 feet on the ground and 100"++ this season...not saying we should see as much as them, but it makes our climo look even more pathetic.

Josh and I have these debates all the time...and I concede that I see the glass half empty when it comes to climo. I totally understand his perspective too...but in a practical sense, I don't know why people think that Chicago has a wintry climate in DJF. It's just not true.

At the end of the day, it bothers me to no end that the media and the general public think winter is so bad here. Even when we actually do get a little bit of wintry weather, no one wants to embrace it. Why do people have such a poor attitude? Is our culture really that wimpy?

Ok, rant over...

The blizzard is what is really keeping me from giving this winter a complete F. Any more screw jobs while just to my w/nw/s/se cash in again and well i may have to reconsider. Thus as it stands it has a C. God willing we are done with that crap.

It is one thing when you get shafted in one direction but another when it happens in every direction which this winter up to this point has been about and them some. I am possibly the only person who has yet to reach their seasonal norms. Thus how obvious the screwzone has been here. This blizzard on the other hand provided me my first true blizzard in this state and my first since 96 so it gets a few extra points. Still fell short of expectations though as everything does around here when it comes to major events but i kinda guess that is to be expected.

Snow cover only matters to me when it gets deep. Still great to look at though and much better then bare ground.

Perhaps you should consider moving if possible?

I admit that i need to and if and when i can i will. Thus closer to the lake here in W.MI.

[beavis1729]

Perhaps you should consider moving if possible?

I know you're tired of hearing me complain...point well taken.

[baroclinic_instability]

I know everyone is on the bandwagon about how snowy things have been and that people have no right to complain about the lack of snow recently...but given that this is a winter enthusiast's thread, I'll vent my winter frustration here.

ORD has only seen 2.9" of snow since 2/9/11 (basically 3 separate tiny events), with not much more on the horizon. This is pathetic and needs to be acknowledged, especially when everyone says we can't complain about the lack of winter anymore.

As I've said many times before...if I knew in November that an upcoming suburban Chicago winter would feature average temps and snowfall, it would be horrible. Chicago is not a wintry place, period. We only have a 40% chance of seeing a White Christmas...and that includes many instances with only 1" or 2" on the ground (some bare spots). So, the chance of a truly White Christmas (3"+ depth) is probably around 20-25%.

A true wintry place would talk about how the snowpack changes and peaks throughout the season...whereas in Chicago, it doesn't make sense to discuss this, as we're without a snowpack on many days during DJF. A snowpack should be depended on...the only question should be how deep. But not in Chicago, Detroit, LAF, STL, etc.

38" of snow in an entire season is really crappy...yeah, it's climo, but face it, Chicago metro's climo sucks for winter lovers. Why do we sugarcoat this? Why do we try to convince ourselves otherwise? Just because the media and 90% of the general public complains about winter in Chicago, doesn't mean that winter is actually "wintry" here. For example, to think that the avg. Feb. snowfall in Chicago is only 8"...that's a winter month! 2" of snow per week during the heart of winter is not exactly a wintry climate.

Yes, the early Feb. blizzard was great and means that this winter gets a B- in my opinion (instead of a D+ without the blizzard). It was a phenomenal event, as I saw my first lightning strikes ever during a snowstorm. But with that said, true winter is measured by its consistency...like you can wake up on a winter morning and know it will be really cold outside. The question would just be exactly how cold. The fact that the blizzard's snowfall melted within 10 days, and that we've had hardly any snow since 2/9/11, needs to be considered when evaluating the winter as a whole.

Heck, many places in the northeast (NH and VT) have 4 feet on the ground and 100"++ this season...not saying we should see as much as them, but it makes our climo look even more pathetic.

Josh and I have these debates all the time...and I concede that I see the glass half empty when it comes to climo. I totally understand his perspective too...but in a practical sense, I don't know why people think that Chicago has a wintry climate in DJF. It's just not true.

At the end of the day, it bothers me to no end that the media and the general public think winter is so bad here. Even when we actually do get a little bit of wintry weather, no one wants to embrace it. Why do people have such a poor attitude? Is our culture really that wimpy?

Ok, rant over...

Everyone has the right to complain or not complain--but I think you gave the big daddy storm too little credit for what it was--a rare storm you may not see in many years if not decades.

[beavis1729]

Everyone has the right to complain or not complain--but I think you gave the big daddy storm too little credit for what it was--a rare storm you may not see in many years if not decades.

Fair point...it was quite a storm. It was surreal being out in it.

[Harry]

Everyone has the right to complain or not complain--but I think you gave the big daddy storm too little credit for what it was--a rare storm you may not see in many years if not decades.

Yeah if i had the totals they had i would have zero bad to say about it. I still enjoyed it though. However lets be honest for a moment. Pressure wise/Impact i don't think it stacks up well to those like Jan 67 or Jan 79 which is the two big ones for there and heck here for that matter. Had Jan 78 here too but Chicago was a shade to far west for the high end 18+ stuff. Anyways i think it is very possible to see such a system again and sooner rather then later. Now had it had the impact of say Jan 67, 78, 79 ( widespread 18-24+ ) then that would be different and so they were true beasts that are rare in these parts granted they did not seem rare for that time period. Freaking 3 big mega bombs in a span of 12yrs. We have gotten a few of these more localized ( 18+ ) since i have been here which is 04-05. Difference with this was it had a bit more wind with it and thus a true blizzard for many which yeah i suppose makes it a bit more rare. Thats me though.

[beavis1729]

Looks like some decently cold air in southern Canada over the next couple weeks...but nothing significant to pull it down into the midwest in the near future. We'll see what happens...

[Harry]

Looks like some decently cold air in southern Canada over the next couple weeks...but nothing significant to pull it down into the midwest in the near future. We'll see what happens...

We need to rid ourselves of this.

See the N.PAC. Note the area in red i circled.

That needs to go. Get rid of that and have a ridge there instead and things improve drastically. The blue line is close to what would be a good trough set up. Still always other ways to do it but that is what i would prefer to see.

Personally i would not get worked up over any model solution ( even if it is a few runs ) beyond 72hrs and especially beyond 120hrs. Not with this pattern.

[baroclinic_instability]

Yeah if i had the totals they had i would have zero bad to say about it. I still enjoyed it though. However lets be honest for a moment. Pressure wise/Impact i don't think it stacks up well to those like Jan 67 or Jan 79 which is the two big ones for there and heck here for that matter. Had Jan 78 here too but Chicago was a shade to far west for the high end 18+ stuff. Anyways i think it is very possible to see such a system again and sooner rather then later. Now had it had the impact of say Jan 67, 78, 79 ( widespread 18-24+ ) then that would be different and so they were true beasts that are rare in these parts granted they did not seem rare for that time period. Freaking 3 big mega bombs in a span of 12yrs. We have gotten a few of these more localized ( 18+ ) since i have been here which is 04-05. Difference with this was it had a bit more wind with it and thus a true blizzard for many which yeah i suppose makes it a bit more rare. Thats me though.

Well yeah overall it wasn't a historic beast for a large area in the MW I agree--but it was pretty amazing across the southern plains/central plains for snowfall. Chicago actually got quite lucky and could very well have been dryslotted like a lot of other areas nearby. Not a true pressure bomb like those mentioned, but unique nonetheless. But yeah--if that didn't happen it would be a fat D/F for Chicago no doubt.

I do see where you/he is coming from with the media snow wimps and everyone wanting warm and no snow--but one just needs to avoid the media then I never watch TV news, read local newspaper weather, etc. for that reason. Many people who complain about cold and snow don't realize that very cold and snow is what makes the summer months special too--and vice versa.

[Harry]

Well yeah overall it wasn't a historic beast for a large area in the MW I agree--but it was pretty amazing across the southern plains/central plains for snowfall. Chicago actually got quite lucky and could very well have been dryslotted like a lot of other areas nearby. Not a true pressure bomb like those mentioned, but unique nonetheless. But yeah--if that didn't happen it would be a fat D/F for Chicago no doubt.

I do see where you/he is coming from with the media snow wimps and everyone wanting warm and no snow--but one just needs to avoid the media then I never watch TV news, read local newspaper weather, etc. for that reason. Many people who complain about cold and snow don't realize that very cold and snow is what makes the summer months special too--and vice versa.

Them ( Media ) i actually do tend to ignore and that is one reason. I admit that it does baffle me a bit considering this region relies a bit on snow for tourism and such and thus local economies. My gripe is more with those who do it on this board starting in Feb ( have some who just don't care for it period ) and then it ramps up come March 1st. Come March 1st and beyond if it wants to snow then let it and if i can get some severe wx then bring it as well. Either or is possible all the way to May here anyways. Climo says it snows in March more often then not and so yeah i do like seing it especially considering it is at a time of year when the big bomb is possible as we have more to work with thanks to added juice from the south. So yeah i am hoping for it even if it comes in April and thus see Detroits biggest now storm on record which was early April.