Harry Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Irony is that the above is a perfect example of wishcasting. I am not even gonna argue it. Just hit the report button. Time to do some house cleaning here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I wonder if it would be best if the WI/MN/IA (maybe IL) posters have our own thread for this system and see how it goes. Probably would be a good idea imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 This thread has "PMS" today. LOL! I would agree and it is entertaining but annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 How is he wishcasting when he thinks the EURO is right? Which would give S. WI rain? He doubts the models will shift south (an assertion) but he doesn't back it up with any meteorological evidence. Then he then claims he thinks south/central WI (where he lives) are in the sweet spot. I know you're a kid, but this isn't rocket science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I wonder if it would be best if the WI/MN/IA (maybe IL) posters have our own thread for this system and see how it goes. Probably would be a good idea imo. Go for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 I'm not wishcasting. I said the favored areas imo are a little north of me, but I still think I have a better chance than the Eastern Lakes. Chances are the Euro is closer to reality just because, as Des Moines' AFD said, with limited snow cover in Iowa, it will pull the storm further north. Obviously I hope I'm wrong, but I'm trying to be realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 looking at all the models i would say right now the best area of heavy snowfall is nebraska..baro's new location, seems to me all models agree with that and just a wait n see for the rest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 looking at all the models i would say right now the best area of heavy snowfall is nebraska..baro's new location, seems to me all models agree with that and just a wait n see for the rest of us. Nicely Stated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Go for it. I started it. Maybe it will help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I'm not wishcasting. I said the favored areas imo are a little north of me, but I still think I have a better chance than the Eastern Lakes. Chances are the Euro is closer to reality just because, as Des Moines' AFD said, with limited snow cover in Iowa, it will pull the storm further north. Obviously I hope I'm wrong, but I'm trying to be realistic. It's best not to accuse others, especially a whole region, of wishcasting, because unless it's blatantly obvious, you're only going to draw heat upon yourself, especially considering you're a novice. Believe me, if I noticed someone wishcasting, even from the eastern Lakes, I'd call them out on it. So far, all I'm seeing are people discussing the models/potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 If he was wishcasting, he would say the GFS is right (and the southern track). GFS gives S. WI like 8-10 inches. So, no, he isn't wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Lets put the Dec 11-13 storm to rest...no model saw the second low out of OH until T-24 hrs...while the first one ended around southern L.MI NAM had NW Ohio get 8-12 inches and they ended up with 2... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 It's best not to accuse others, especially a whole region, of wishcasting, because unless it's blatantly obvious, you're only going to draw heat upon yourself, especially considering you're a novice. Believe me, if I noticed someone wishcasting, even from the eastern Lakes, I'd call them out on it. So far, all I'm seeing are people discussing the models/potential. Ok, I'm sorry. Btw, my meteorological evidence (not self-discovered, I admit) was the point made on Des Moines' AFD about the snow cover trending systems northward recently, and how it would probably steer this system as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 looking at all the models i would say right now the best area of heavy snowfall is nebraska..baro's new location, seems to me all models agree with that and just a wait n see for the rest of us. Baro brought his magic stick to LBF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Ok, I'm sorry. Btw, my meteorological evidence (not self-discovered, I admit) was the point made on Des Moines' AFD about the snow cover trending systems northward recently, and how it would probably steer this system as well. The snowcover or lack thereof could play a role but there are some other factors too...entry location into the Plains and wave strength/amplitude to name a couple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Money- If S Wi gets 8-10 inches, you can see my package... I really have doubts this thing is nothing more then a small turd nugget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Double thread? What happened? I think we all need to be civil to each other. The last thing we want to do is chase away the Pro Mets and Newbies. OR this site will end up in the perils of AccuWeather forums in which we have an over moderated site filled with bitter home gamers and stellar weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 8 to 10 with those thermals. Where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Money-If S Wi gets 8-10 inches, you can see my package... I really have doubts this thing is nothing more then a small turd nugget. I'll pass on that offer Double thread? What happened?I think we all need to be civil to each other. The last thing we want to do is chase away the Pro Mets and Newbies. OR this site will end up in the perils of AccuWeather forums in which we have an over moderated site filled with bitter home gamers and stellar weenies. I thought it was pretty civil tbh. Just best for the site imo. Been a lot of arguments going on today, and it's just going to continue until the storm passes. Obviously some people think the EURO is onto something, while the eastern part of the region thinks the southern trend is going to continue. Central region is probably one of the best regions on this site (less arguments etc) I also wanna say I have nothing against any of the eastern section posters as well. I can see why they think this storm will trend south, I obviously think they are wrong, but we'll see how it turns out. Just take a break from each other for a week (seperate threads etc) and see how this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 8 to 10 with those thermals. Where? 12z GFS had .75 QPF at least in S. WI. A 10:1 ratio would still be 7.5 inches. Up here, it was .8 QPF with temps in the mid 20's and 850's well below 0. So yeah, pretty close to 8 inches for S. WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 8 to 10 with those thermals. Where? Re-read his post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 from FSD AFD DID NOT REALLY FOLLOW THE GEM GLOBAL THINKING THAT USUALLY THE CENTRAL/SRN RCKYS LOWS EJECT FURTHER NEWD THAN ANTICIPATED. SO IN THIS FCST...TRENDED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH BRING THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NEB AND KS BORDER...BUT WITH SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES. THIS TIME AROUND...THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF WHICH IS A SWITCH. AT ANY RATE... BLENDING THE TWO MODELS TIMING DIFFERENCES IS PRUDENT WHICH BRINGS THE CRUX OF THE UPPER ENERGY THRU OUR FA LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT... AND THIS AREA IS PLACED IN A STRONG LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. SFC WISE...THE LOW FOLLOWS A TRACK ENEWD ACROSS SRN IA BY WED. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL WHEN THE EVENT GETS CLOSER IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN A FURTHER NORTH TREND...LIKE THE MODEL RUNS WERE ON WED AND THUR. SOMEBODY AROUND HERE IS LIKELY TO GET A LOT OF SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I'm kind of glad I was sleeping through most of this today, a lot of fail in the thread today, so much so that we now have 2 threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I'd probably decline too NWS here doesn't say to much about this yet... Think we've been burned a lot lately with models showing big storms and then the storms not showing up. Could be mixing issues so 8-10 might end up being 2-4 of slop if that snow falls during the day/temps are warm/planets are aligned.... *if* it even materializes to begin with. 2 threads? Its good to have a back up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 At 102 the low is on the OK/KS/MO border.... Doesn't look like a ton of precip in the cold sector... DSM looks to be right on the freezing line.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Good hit for Money? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Good hit for Money? Nice hit for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Right through or just south of Chicago, or so it would seem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Two storm threads for the exact same storm? Silly. Just think of how lame it would have been had we split the Groundhog Day storm. This is equally as lame--even if there may have been trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Yup...its all snow here... Just have to see how much precip comes this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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