SpartyOn Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Hello. Anyone still alive after the model wars? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Hello. Anyone still alive after the model wars? lol, remember what the models were showing at this time range with the current storm? How useful did analyzing every fiber of the models turn out to be? Probably best just to sit back and let this one unfold as it may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 18Z DGEX at 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I wouldn't be shocked if the 00z EURO throws a monkey wrench tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 DTX AFD. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THOUGH THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR IN TIMING THIS SYSTEM...UPPER LEVEL JET MAX...AND THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH...THEY DIFFER IN WHERE THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL PASS. EURO IS THE MOST NORTHERN SOLUTION TAKING IT THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MI WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST SOUTHERN SOLUTION TRACKING IT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR IF THE EURO IS REALIZED THEN A MENTION OF THUNDER WILL BE WARRANTED ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT LEANED TOWARD THE GFS/DGEX AND WENT WITH RAIN ON WEDNESDAY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 DVN...AFD OPERATIONAL GFS AND MUCH OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND GEM HAVE GONE SOUTH WITH THE LOW TRACK. HAVING DIFFICULTY FINDING THE REASON FOR THIS... ESPECIALLY GIVEN WEAKENING TREND TO EASTERN CANADIAN HIGH... 06Z GFS 1045 MB WHILE 12Z GFS 1039 MB. STRONGER HIGH WOULD AID IN DEFLECTING STORM FURTHER SOUTH. GEM MODEL SNOW DEPTH STILL SHOWING 8-10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN IA... THUS LOW LEVEL COLD BIAS MAY BE PLAYING INTO SOUTHERN SHIFT. HAVE SEEN THESE TRENDS PLAY OUT WITH MODELS PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS... STORMS INITIALLY NORTH THEN SHIFT SOUTH ONLY TO END UP TRACKING BACK FURTHER NORTHWEST. BOTTOM LINE... FAVOR 12Z HI-RES ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 DVN...AFD OPERATIONAL GFS AND MUCH OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND GEM HAVE GONE SOUTH WITH THE LOW TRACK. HAVING DIFFICULTY FINDING THE REASON FOR THIS... ESPECIALLY GIVEN WEAKENING TREND TO EASTERN CANADIAN HIGH... 06Z GFS 1045 MB WHILE 12Z GFS 1039 MB. STRONGER HIGH WOULD AID IN DEFLECTING STORM FURTHER SOUTH. GEM MODEL SNOW DEPTH STILL SHOWING 8-10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN IA... THUS LOW LEVEL COLD BIAS MAY BE PLAYING INTO SOUTHERN SHIFT. HAVE SEEN THESE TRENDS PLAY OUT WITH MODELS PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS... STORMS INITIALLY NORTH THEN SHIFT SOUTH ONLY TO END UP TRACKING BACK FURTHER NORTHWEST. BOTTOM LINE... FAVOR 12Z HI-RES ECMWF STORMS INITIALLY NORTH THEN SHIFT SOUTH ONLY TO END UP TRACKING BACK FURTHER NORTHWEST. BOTTOM LINE... FAVOR 12Z HI-RES ECMWF yep! seen that a few times this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 lol. GRR ( early morning AFD ) IF THE GFS SOLUTION IS CORRECT... PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX TUESDAY NIGHT... CHANGE TO RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES. IF THE ECMWF PANS OUT... PRECIPITATION WOULD BEGIN AS RAIN WITH A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SWITCH TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW OVER TOLEDO AND THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW OVER TRAVERSE CITY. THE GOING FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 18Z DGEX at 108 lol i think it takes it up over msp..... good ol dgex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 from DMX lol CURRENTLY LITTLE TO NO SNOW PACK IS LOCATED ACROSS IOWA THEN GREATLY INCREASES FATHER NORTH INTO MINNESOTA. THIS SETUP HAS HELPED PUSH SYSTEMS FARTHER NORTH THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND EXPECT A SIMILAR TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSER TO A ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTION AS OPPOSED TO THE FARTHER SOUTH GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 18z GFS looks a hair South compared to the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 lol i think it takes it up over msp..... good ol dgex. close...takes it to se MN at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I could be mistaken but it looks warmer too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I could be mistaken but it looks warmer too. Tracking west of you it most likely would be warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 fwiw: 18Z GAPS alot further n than 12z...takes it just se of chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Tracking west of you it most likely would be warm Without a doubt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Not a bad place to be as of now. Trending south on few runs of the GFS..keep em coming! But the 300lb gorilla in the room is the EURO. Low tracks right over DTW/DET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 So...central GL offices favor GFS, western GL/Plains offices favor Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 18z GFS looks a hair South compared to the 12z. too much WAA and not enough cold air for a good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 So...central GL offices favor GFS, western GL/Plains offices favor Euro. Gee I wonder why... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 too much WAA and not enough cold air for a good snow. So should we be rooting for more digging? More amplified and some basic blocking to the north...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 So should we be rooting for more digging? More amplified and some basic blocking to the north...? As Harry put it, we want this to dig far enough south and east to draw in more cold air..i.e a stronger system, but SE enough so that we're not in the warm sector, otherwise it won't be a predominate snow producer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 I think the Central and Eastern Lakes are really engaging in wishful thinking here if they think they have a chance at significant snow with this system. It might continue to trend significantly southward, but I doubt it. The Euro would have to shift 300-400 miles south to give a good snowstorm for Detroit. While I doubt it's very close to right, I also doubt that it would shift drastically southward like that either. I think Southern Minnesota, Northern Iowa, Central and (maybe) Southern Wisconsin are in the best spot for this, as well as Northern Michigan. If anything, this may trend back northward, which would shift my favored areas northward as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Let it go people. This is doa. Trough axis is to far west. Anything to get a further 'east' track will be a sheared out pos. Might as well root for a amplified solution and a strong low/snowstorm for the plains. Good point. No joke! But if your wrong can I copy and paste this in the OBS thread.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I think the Central and Eastern Lakes are really engaging in wishful thinking here if they think they have a chance at significant snow with this system. It might continue to trend significantly southward, but I doubt it. The Euro would have to shift 300-400 miles south to give a good snowstorm for Detroit. While I doubt it's very close to right, I also doubt that it would shift drastically southward like that either. I think Southern Minnesota, Northern Iowa, Central and (maybe) Southern Wisconsin are in the best spot for this, as well as Northern Michigan. If anything, this may trend back northward, which would shift my favored areas northward as well. Who's wishing?...we all know it's not a likely outcome so simmer down now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I think the Central and Eastern Lakes are really engaging in wishful thinking here if they think they have a chance at significant snow with this system. It might continue to trend significantly southward, but I doubt it. The Euro would have to shift 300-400 miles south to give a good snowstorm for Detroit. While I doubt it's very close to right, I also doubt that it would shift drastically southward like that either. I think Southern Minnesota, Northern Iowa, Central and (maybe) Southern Wisconsin are in the best spot for this, as well as Northern Michigan. If anything, this may trend back northward, which would shift my favored areas northward as well. Agreed 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Who's wishing?...we all know it's not a likely outcome so simmer down now. I think that was aimed at me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I think the Central and Eastern Lakes are really engaging in wishful thinking here if they think they have a chance at significant snow with this system. It might continue to trend significantly southward, but I doubt it. The Euro would have to shift 300-400 miles south to give a good snowstorm for Detroit. While I doubt it's very close to right, I also doubt that it would shift drastically southward like that either. I think Southern Minnesota, Northern Iowa, Central and (maybe) Southern Wisconsin are in the best spot for this, as well as Northern Michigan. If anything, this may trend back northward, which would shift my favored areas northward as well. Irony is that the above is a perfect example of wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 This thread has "PMS" today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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