Hoosier Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 LOL you tell me to stop, but then you say: The EURO has been the best model this season easily. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think the Euro verification scores are light years ahead of the others in recent times. It has done well capturing trends with some of the bigger events but it's had bad moments too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think the Euro verification scores are light years ahead of the others. It has done well capturing trends with some of the bigger events but it's had bad moments too. Ukie is still the lead dog at day 5 and 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I don't remember one time this season (basing this off storms for my area) where the EURO has been off. It's had a rough time with this upcoming storm (each run is pretty different etc) but I believe it's done WAY better then the NAM/RGEM/GEM etc. GFS has been decent this winter, so has the UKIE (in the medium range) But the statement Harry made was saying the EURO has struggled all winter, which isn't the case at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Ukie is still the lead dog at day 5 and 6. UK leads in height scores but it still manages to suck--very misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 This is what I found. This graphic is for the last month pretty much. Link: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/acz5.html UKIE/EURO have been pretty much equal. Top one is for the N. hem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I don't remember one time this season (basing this off storms for my area) where the EURO has been off. It's had a rough time with this upcoming storm (each run is pretty different etc) but I believe it's done WAY better then the NAM/RGEM/GEM etc. GFS has been decent this winter, so has the UKIE (in the medium range) But the statement Harry made was saying the EURO has struggled all winter, which isn't the case at all. How the hell do you know that? What's your objective evidence? If it comes down to your perceptions vs. Harry's perceptions, guess which side myself and 99% of the board is going to take? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 This is what I found. This graphic is for the last month pretty much. Link: http://www.emc.ncep..../html/acz5.html UKIE/EURO have been pretty much equal. Top one is for the N. hem. UK leads in height scores but it still manages to suck--very misleading. We've determined that there's a disconnect between H5 scores and the accuracy of the models in general. I just don't know how to describe that disconnect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I don't remember one time this season (basing this off storms for my area) where the EURO has been off. It's had a rough time with this upcoming storm (each run is pretty different etc) but I believe it's done WAY better then the NAM/RGEM/GEM etc. GFS has been decent this winter, so has the UKIE (in the medium range) But the statement Harry made was saying the EURO has struggled all winter, which isn't the case at all. Stop trying to prove a point and read into what i said. Beyond 120hrs the euro has been constantly to far to the nw with these systems. See the current one and a slew of others before it. Threads are there for you to look at. Now you wanna discuss how it has done at 500mb then sure the euro has done great and i believe still leading the pack. Unsure about the UK stuff. NOT saying this thing goes farther south/se either. Just giving a run down of how the models have behaved. Main point is you are constantly saying crap that is completely wrong. Naturally ofcourse you avoided that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TruePatriot Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Can we please stop aruging over model weenie rage and focus on the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 UK leads in height scores but it still manages to suck--very misleading. I have brought this up before ( here and elsewhere ) but to no avail. It really is misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Can we please stop aruging over model weenie rage and focus on the storm? All the 12z suite is out. We're in the intermission period. I think it's an interesting weather related topic to talk about and kill some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Stop trying to prove a point and read into what i said. Beyond 120hrs the euro has been constantly to far to the nw with these systems. See the current one and a slew of others before it. Threads are there for you to look at. Now you wanna discuss how it has done at 500mb then sure the euro has done great and i believe still leading the pack. Unsure about the UK stuff. NOT saying this thing goes farther south/se either. Just giving a run down of how the models have behaved. Main point is you are constantly saying crap that is completely wrong. Naturally ofcourse you avoided that. Naturally of course, you never proved that your statement was true or false. Find a graphic that shows the EURO being one of the worse models when it comes to medium range forecasting, and I'll apologize and move on. I can't find a graphic showing the overall scores of each model, but I did find one that at day 5 (500mb though), that the EURO has been one of the best models (outside of UK) What about the threat back in Dec. when the EURO was the only one showing the LOW going to Chicago, and all the rest of the guidance was too far SE (GFS had the LOW way down south etc) and look at what model was right then? I could come up with even more instances where the EURO was right, but it would be pointless deabting with you because you have the "I'm always right" type of mentality. Let's get back talking about the storm. We'll see which model is right in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I don't remember one time this season (basing this off storms for my area) where the EURO has been off. It's had a rough time with this upcoming storm (each run is pretty different etc) but I believe it's done WAY better then the NAM/RGEM/GEM etc. GFS has been decent this winter, so has the UKIE (in the medium range) But the statement Harry made was saying the EURO has struggled all winter, which isn't the case at all. There's the issue right there. I can name several instances where the Euro wasn't good in my backyard in terms of qpf, but I wouldn't use that to pass judgement on the whole. Maybe just me but model performance seems to run in cycles. Certain models handle certain patterns better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 This storm is going to be a turd in the end so no sense in arguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Just a hunch but given the recent trends with the past few event and similar overall pattern, this one will probably trend weaker over the next day or two and i expect any backside snows to shrink as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panhandlehook Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 The Groundhog blizzard was a gulf low. Actually, one of our local mets said it was kinda a cross between a Panhandle Hook and a Gulf Low. It didn't really come up out of the gulf as I believe it tracked from Texas to Arkansas...then northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Alek- I'm with you on that thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Actually, one of our local mets said it was kinda a cross between a Panhandle Hook and a Gulf Low. It didn't really come up out of the gulf as I believe it tracked from Texas to Arkansas...then northeast. I can buy that characterization. Here is the surface map from the morning of the 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 There's the issue right there. I can name several instances where the Euro wasn't good in my backyard in terms of qpf, but I wouldn't use that to pass judgement on the whole. Maybe just me but model performance seems to run in cycles. Certain models handle certain patterns better. I agree. The EURO has been far from perfect. But it's not the worst model at all (beyond hr 120) No model is going to get things 100%, and obviously the pattern is going to dictate which model is the best at the end. I would really like a graphic showing which models perform the best in what pattern. Would be interesting to see what the results show, and then we can understand more on which model could be right in the end etc depending on the pattern. I don't think they have a graphic for that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Seriously dude not trying to be mean but just stop. You have no clue about what you are saying. And just like every other system the euro looks to be last again to the party. What a wild year so far following/tracking these systems. Naturally of course, you never proved that your statement was true or false. Find a graphic that shows the EURO being one of the worse models when it comes to medium range forecasting, and I'll apologize and move on. I can't find a graphic showing the overall scores of each model, but I did find one that at day 5 (500mb though), that the EURO has been one of the best models (outside of UK) What about the threat back in Dec. when the EURO was the only one showing the LOW going to Chicago, and all the rest of the guidance was too far SE (GFS had the LOW way down south etc) and look at what model was right then? I could come up with even more instances where the EURO was right, but it would be pointless deabting with you because you have the "I'm always right" type of mentality. Let's get back talking about the storm. We'll see which model is right in the end. Again stop reading into what i said and don't words into my mouth. I did not say the euro was the worst model. Saying it has been late to the party ( keep in mind the time range we are discussing here ) is not saying it is the worst. What part of that don't you understand? Oh and it was at about this range ( Dec 6th 00z run ) that the euro had that thing tracking to N.MI. I am sure many will recall when me a baro got into it over the track into N.MI? Helps to look back at storm threads. Even at 48hrs-60hrs the euro tried taking it to Muskegon, MI. Muskegon is not even close to the MI border and or Toledo. There's the issue right there. I can name several instances where the Euro wasn't good in my backyard in terms of qpf, but I wouldn't use that to pass judgement on the whole. Maybe just me but model performance seems to run in cycles. Certain models handle certain patterns better. Pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I was talking about the Dec. 11th-Dec 13th storm, the one that tracked pretty much on the WI/IL border. (EURO had it a bit farther north, but it was MUCH closer to reality then the GFS/UKIE etc which tracked it way south in the HR 120 period) Again stop reading into what i said and don't words into my mouth. I did not say the euro was the worst model. Saying it has been late to the party ( keep in mind the time range we are discussing here ) is not saying it is the worst. What part of that don't you understand? You're basically saying it's the worst model in the HR 120 timeframe, are you not? I would love for you to prove this. Find a graphic that supports your statement, because I don't think it's true. Oh and it was at about this range ( Dec 6th 00z run ) that the euro had that thing tracking to N.MI. I am sure many will recall when me a baro got into it over the track into N.MI? Helps to look back at storm threads. Even at 48hrs-60hrs the euro tried taking it to Muskegon, MI. Muskegon is not even close to the MI border and or Toledo. So one model run makes it bad? It had nearly the same exact track for 5-6 straight runs for that storm in the medium range. The one or two model runs it shifted north (one run had it in C. IL) but like I said, it was a LOT closer to reality then what the other guidance was showing at that timeframe. It's far from perfect, but it's one (if not) the best model overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I was talking about the Dec. 11th-Dec 13th storm, the one that tracked pretty much on the WI/IL border. (EURO had it a bit farther north, but it was MUCH closer to reality then the GFS/UKIE etc which tracked it way south in the HR 120 period) You're basically saying it's the worst model in the HR 120 timeframe, are you not? I would love for you to prove this. Find a graphic that supports your statement, because I don't think it's true. So one model run makes it bad? It had nearly the same exact track for 5-6 straight runs for that storm in the medium range. The one or two model runs it shifted north (one run had it in C. IL) but like I said, it was a LOT closer to reality then what the other guidance was showing at that timeframe. It's far from perfect, but it's one (if not) the best model overall. OK the euro is usually the first to find a trend but every storm is different and lately the euro has been on the NW side of things 3-5 days out. As far as the dec 12th storm the euro was too far north while the other models were too far south. That storm came out of canada and all models struggle with that. Just relax and watch the evolution of this storm and stop trying to prove your right. You won't win. Who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I was talking about the Dec. 11th-Dec 13th storm, the one that tracked pretty much on the WI/IL border. (EURO had it a bit farther north, but it was MUCH closer to reality then the GFS/UKIE etc which tracked it way south in the HR 120 period) You're basically saying it's the worst model in the HR 120 timeframe, are you not? I would love for you to prove this. Find a graphic that supports your statement, because I don't think it's true. So one model run makes it bad? It had nearly the same exact track for 5-6 straight runs for that storm in the medium range. The one or two model runs it shifted north (one run had it in C. IL) but like I said, it was a LOT closer to reality then what the other guidance was showing at that timeframe. It's far from perfect, but it's one (if not) the best model overall. Hello euro run from Dec 6th? Is it REALLY that hard to put 2 and 2 together? Dude. Just do me a favor and stay away from my posts if you cant understand what i am saying. I am not the one you wanna troll either which is what i highly suspect you are doing as well. I would also refrain from making stupid posts about where storms can and cannot track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I think at the time we agreed that the GGEM handled the Dec 12th storm the best with its track south of Chicago to the northern OV (near CLE). EURO was too far north for several runs, taking a low through/near GRB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Lets put the Dec 11-13 storm to rest...no model saw the second low out of OH until T-24 hrs...while the first one ended around southern L.MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I think at the time we agreed that the GGEM handled the Dec 12th storm the best with its track south of Chicago to the northern OV (near CLE). EURO was too far north for several runs, taking a low through/near GRB. It did because as said on several occasions the euro tried taking it into WI and then N.MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Hello euro run from Dec 6th? Is it REALLY that hard to put 2 and 2 together? Dude. Just do me a favor and stay away from my posts if you cant understand what i am saying. I am not the one you wanna troll either which is what i highly suspect you are doing as well. I would also refrain from making stupid posts about where storms can and cannot track. Fair enough. I'll just put you on ignore and we'll be good to go. You obviously can't deabte without showing evidence on why the EURO sucks 5 days out. So whatever. Again, can't debate without insulting another person. Signs of an insecure person. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, which I respect, and which is what makes this country so great. Calling another person "stupid" and "dumb" is uncalled for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Fair enough. I'll just put you on ignore and we'll be good to go. You obviously can't deabte without showing evidence on why the EURO sucks 5 days out. So whatever. Again, can't debate without insulting another person. Signs of an insecure person. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, which I respect, and which is what makes this country so great. Calling another person "stupid" and "dumb" is uncalled for. 1. Where did i call you stupid? 2. Again i ask where did i say the euro sucks? 3. Thank you. Please do put me on ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Time to move on guys. If you want to resolve any personal issues then do it privately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Well the 12z euro ensembles take it to Chicago and across the lake to near Muskegon and Gaylord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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