TugHillMatt Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 For later storms wouldn't it be better for those south and east of here to see this thing more amped and further northwest? In order to pull down more cold air like we were seeing modeled a couple days ago? That would make sense as to why there has been no cold air to work with from these systems. The cold air is present and then when the system comes it just gets pushed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 images from the 0z GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIU Jeff Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 The 12z GFS trended even more south. 12z run takes the sfc low to SPI where the 0z run has it north of MKX. The NAM/GFS still differ at 84hr on what to do with the trof out east as the NAM has a much deeper neg tilt trof. The NAM's initialization errors seem to be compounding with the extended range forecasting. Overall trends are south, especially for the GFS, which made a noticeable change in the 12z run, with a track through Central IL; albeit weaker. The GFS' solution makes more sense than it did on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 That would make sense as to why there has been no cold air to work with from these systems. The cold air is present and then when the system comes it just gets pushed away. Going farther nw is not gonna help at all. What would help is for these systems to come in farther from the south and then make a hard left turn towards the nne passing off to our e/se. That allows cold air to come in ahead of the storm and gives us a bit more time before the storm arrives. Regardless.. rarely does it work out for us ( or anyone ) with a system that passes us just to the west/nw/n. Thus if this thing were to go farther nw then the chances are good it passes us to the w/wnw/nw/n. Sure we could start off with the snow but unless the precip got out of here quick enough the snow would turn to a mix and then rain. If it is mid winter and we have a decent enough artic airmass then yeah it could work out ( has to be way to the west though like we saw in Dec 09 plains blizzard ) and we end up with a decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Going farther nw is not gonna help at all. What would help is for these systems to come in farther from the south and then make a hard left turn towards the nne passing off to our e/se. That allows cold air to come in ahead of the storm and gives us a bit more time before the storm arrives. Regardless.. rarely does it work out for us ( or anyone ) with a system that passes us just to the west/nw/n. Thus if this thing were to go farther nw then the chances are good it passes us to the w/wnw/nw/n. Sure we could start off with the snow but unless the precip got out of here quick enough the snow would turn to a mix and then rain. If it is mid winter and we have a decent enough artic airmass then yeah it could work out ( has to be way to the west though like we saw in Dec 09 plains blizzard ) and we end up with a decent snow. It seems like the past two years the low pressures have been moving directly towards us from the southwest. Not many good ones that have done what you described. On the 12Z GFS model run I was looking at that High Pressure up in Northern Ontario thinking it would block the storm from moving northwest to northeast, but as the Low moves closer the High gets pushed out and to the southeast. I guess that's where a different NAO position would really help in holding that High in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Glad this is trending south. Gives me one more shot at a big one, after 5 passed legitimate opportunities. Despite more than twice the amount of snow, this winter in many ways has been as frustrating as last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Going farther nw is not gonna help at all. What would help is for these systems to come in farther from the south and then make a hard left turn towards the nne passing off to our e/se. That allows cold air to come in ahead of the storm and gives us a bit more time before the storm arrives. Regardless.. rarely does it work out for us ( or anyone ) with a system that passes us just to the west/nw/n. Thus if this thing were to go farther nw then the chances are good it passes us to the w/wnw/nw/n. Sure we could start off with the snow but unless the precip got out of here quick enough the snow would turn to a mix and then rain. If it is mid winter and we have a decent enough artic airmass then yeah it could work out ( has to be way to the west though like we saw in Dec 09 plains blizzard ) and we end up with a decent snow. Think maybe they were hinting at that we want a strong NW tracking wound up storm to bring down cold air for the next storm. As alek stated, this late in the year, the cold will only stick around for a few days but if the timing is right there would be enough for a significant snow. Even if this low trends weaker/south, theres not enough cold air for much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 12z GGEM still way south. 1005 mb low on the MO/AR border at 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 GGEM is also cold on the front end to the point that we'd probably start out as snow even here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 It seems like the past two years the low pressures have been moving directly towards us from the southwest. Not many good ones that have done what you described. On the 12Z GFS model run I was looking at that High Pressure up in Northern Ontario thinking it would block the storm from moving northwest to northeast, but as the Low moves closer the High gets pushed out and to the southeast. I guess that's where a different NAO position would really help in holding that High in place. Even if it is moving NE we can still do well and thus see the blizzard BUT we want it to be strengthening as well. A good number of our systems ( except the blizzard ) have maxed out to our west/sw and the past couple of years thus were either weakening or weak by the time they got here. A couple of exceptions but not many that were snow anyways. Thus why some spots can't buy a decent storm with high snowfall totals like the blizzard in this area. Think maybe they were hinting at that we want a strong NW tracking wound up storm to bring down cold air for the next storm. As alek stated, this late in the year, the cold will only stick around for a few days but if the timing is right there would be enough for a significant snow. Even if this low trends weaker/south, theres not enough cold air for much snow. Correct and why we want it to be strengthening when it approaches us. Weak or weakening lows do us no good even deep into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 GGEM has a 1003 mb low near Mattoon Illinois at 132...decent hit for northern Missouri through Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Can't wait to see what the Euro does.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 GGEM has a 1003 mb low near Mattoon Illinois at 132...decent hit for northern Missouri through Chicago. Decent hit out to here on this run as well but probably some mixing/possible dryslot at height of storm. THAT would be the way to do it as well ( get a decent snow storm in these parts ) and thus coming up farther from the south. Something to follow beyond this current system atleast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Even if it is moving NE we can still do well and thus see the blizzard BUT we want it to be strengthening as well. A good number of our systems ( except the blizzard ) have maxed out to our west/sw and the past couple of years thus were either weakening or weak by the time they got here. A couple of exceptions but not many that were snow anyways. Thus why some spots can't buy a decent storm with high snowfall totals like the blizzard in this area. Yea I lost sight of this. Good point as the storms have been weakening as they went east. We need gulf lows and their havent been any gulf lows track west of the apps this year. Regardless of strength, those usually deliver for us. It takes an impressive wave/phasing from the west to maintain its strength and stay strong enough by the time it reaches michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Yea I lost sight of this. Good point as the storms have been weakening as they went east. We need gulf lows and their havent been any gulf lows track west of the apps this year. Regardless of strength, those usually deliver for us. It takes an impressive wave/phasing from the west to maintain its strength and stay strong enough by the time it reaches michigan. The Groundhog blizzard was a gulf low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 The Groundhog blizzard was a gulf low. I don't believe it originated from the gulf. It came onshore in southern Cali. IT was one of the rare storms to tap the gulf. Maybe I am misinterpreting the definition of a gulf low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I don't believe it originated from the gulf. It came onshore in southern Cali. IT was one of the rare storms to tap the gulf. Maybe I am misinterpreting the definition of a gulf low. I guess you could argue it any way. The surface low was at least partially in the Gulf at one point though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 EURO is WAY south through 96. LOW is down in OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 EURO is WAY south through 96. LOW is down in OK. That's not that much farther south than the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 HR 96: 996 LOW W. OK/N. TX HR 102: 996 LOW KS/OK border HR 108: 996 LOW W. KS HR 114: 996 LOW IA/MO border HR 120: 996 LOW NW IL HR 126: 996 LOW C. lake michigan HR 132: 1000 LOW N. Michigan It started out farther to the south, but ended up in pretty much the same spot as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 HR 96: 996 LOW W. OK/N. TX HR 102: 996 LOW KS/OK border HR 108: 996 LOW W. KS HR 114: 996 LOW IA/MO border HR 120: 996 LOW NW IL HR 126: 996 LOW C. lake michigan HR 132: 1000 LOW N. Michigan It started out farther to the south, but ended up in pretty much the same spot as 12z. Normally I would say I'd follow the euro but not so sure lately. Not sure I buy a panhandle of OK to west of chicago track. Storm doesnt seem wound up enough to cut that much. Now that I see the high and Se ridge flex its muscle, that track makes sense now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 It can't go due east really because of the blocking out in the east coast, so the only way it could go is NE until it reaches that block (then it weakens and falls apart) For you guys in Michigan etc, you want the blocking out in the east coast to push farther out into sea, that way it can head more east before it cuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I'd like to know what the NOGAPS has to say about this storm. Understanding what the NOGAPS is prognosticating is essential for understanding how this storm will evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I'd like to know what the NOGAPS has to say about this storm. Understanding what the NOGAPS is prognosticating is essential for understanding how this storm will evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 It can't go due east really because of the blocking out in the east coast, so the only way it could go is NE until it reaches that block (then it weakens and falls apart) For you guys in Michigan etc, you want the blocking out in the east coast to push farther out into sea, that way it can head more east before it cuts. Seriously dude not trying to be mean but just stop. You have no clue about what you are saying. And just like every other system the euro looks to be last again to the party. What a wild year so far following/tracking these systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Seriously dude not trying to be mean but just stop. You have no clue about what you are saying. And just like every other system the euro looks to be last again to the party. What a wild year so far following/tracking these systems. Thanks for clearing that up, because that statement made no sense to me either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 LOL you tell me to stop, but then you say: And just like every other system the euro looks to be last again to the party. The EURO has been the best model this season easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Excellent. I'll be off to tune up the snowblower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 LOL you tell me to stop, but then you say: The EURO has been the best model this season easily. Like every model, it has excelled with some storms, but lately its struggling 3-4 days out, more than it usual does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 The EURO has been the best model this season easily. Don't have anything empirical to back me up, but I'd disagree vehemently with that based on my own perceptions of, and experiences with the EURO this winter. It's been average at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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