snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I don't know what to think of this one. I personally can't recall such a system just east of Detroit over to Toronto ( in that area ) like this that had such little QPF on the west side ESPECIALLY one that is closed off. Typically you would see a decent band stretching back to all of lower Michigan ( to the lake ) down into Indiana and Ohio especially the central/western parts of OH. Pretty obvious something is off and could be why DTX is going the route it is. They are unsure. Should be noted to that we have a very impressive ridge east/ne of this thing so not sure how quick this thing will be able to move off either. I suspect there is gonna be a ton of surprises with this thing. Too soon to say who. Via seasonal trends my bet would be on Detroit area down into central/W.Ohio. I think the overall evolution of the storm (uber negative tilt trough with the sfc low retrograding) is pretty anomalous. WFOs are probably taking it cautious because of that. Easy to get burned with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 It is tight for them also, but if things stand the way it is right now, they would get crushed (6-12+). DTX is on the edge right now. Why can't they wait 8 more hours for the 0z runs? There is no harm in waiting at all. I personally never expected WSW material, but perhaps mention the possibility over more than an inch. lol. Waiting for 00Z is always the best route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Agree...this is going to be another day for me in front of the comp instead of doing bids..LOL Im sending u a PM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 LOL! I got tons of family around the GTA great city! I have a great-uncle from Detroit. That's it for family for me in S MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I have a great-uncle from Detroit. That's it for family for me in S MI. Ive thought about moving to T.O several times especially when the economy hit the crapper around here 2-3 years ago. My city of choice would have been Vaughn or New Market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Love Canada..for social and economic reasons cant beat it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I think the overall evolution of the storm (uber negative tilt trough with the sfc low retrograding) is pretty anomalous. WFOs are probably taking it cautious because of that. Easy to get burned with this one. I would not wanna be the one having to make the call. Very high bust potential. Could be nothing or could be a massive dump for some east of here to the apps. About certain there wont be much of anything here but thats the easy part. But east of here? Hopefully the 00z runs shed some light on this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Agreed, which is the reason why waiting is the smart thing to do. 18z GFS seems a tad NE then 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I would not wanna be the one having to make the call. Very high bust potential. Could be nothing or could be a massive dump for some east of here to the apps. About certain there wont be much of anything here but thats the easy part. But east of here? Hopefully the 00z runs shed some light on this thing. Adds to the excitement, and people getting mat at Mets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Cleveland gets destroyed on 18z. 1.5+ of precip. Nailbiter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 GFS skims the Detroit area.. ever so close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 GFS skims the Detroit area.. ever so close Mother natures way of saying you had a good winter. Stop being greedy. Cya next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Mother natures way of saying you had a good winter. Stop being greedy. Cya next winter. Its right there! LOL Windsor gets destroyed. KAB I like your location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I would not wanna be the one having to make the call. Very high bust potential. Could be nothing or could be a massive dump for some east of here to the apps. About certain there wont be much of anything here but thats the easy part. But east of here? Hopefully the 00z runs shed some light on this thing. Meh, I like your chances better than mine. But probably the sweet spot will be in between both of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Through 5pm 1.4" of snow on .24" liquid for 6:1 ratios . Actually, there are layers of sleet embedded. I think that's where the extra juice is coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Its right there! LOL Windsor gets destroyed. KAB I like your location Been raining pretty good since 7am. Probably close to an inch. Imagine if it was all snow. Alot of precip for being in the east side/dry slot of the storm. Ridiculous the amount of precip we've had around here since Feb 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Been raining pretty good since 7am. Probably close to an inch. Imagine if it was all snow. Alot of precip for being in the east side/dry slot of the storm. Ridiculous the amount of precip we've had around here since Feb 1. Temps have been pretty steady at 36 and hasnt melted crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Its right there! LOL Windsor gets destroyed. KAB I like your location Eastsiders FTW We'll see...very tough scenario for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Ended up with 3.5 here by say 8 am this morning. Still kind of a disappointment but it recovered some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 lol the 18z.. What a tease! 5 miles to my East get crushed. Something about that just doesn't seem right. Even though the trend is NW and thermals are cooler. I still dont think 5 miles will be the difference between Royal Oak getting 2 and Warren/St Clair shores getting close to a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 lol the 18z.. What a tease! 5 miles to my East get crushed. Something about that just doesn't seem right. Even though the trend is NW and thermals are cooler. I still dont think 5 miles will be the difference between Royal Oak getting 2 and Warren/St Clair shores getting close to a foot. Make sure you are only including the second system, because the 18Z GFS only shows .25-0.5 through L. St. Clair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Ended up with 0.65" of rain. Been drizzling here all day. Still haven't seen any flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 lol the 18z.. What a tease! 5 miles to my East get crushed. Something about that just doesn't seem right. Even though the trend is NW and thermals are cooler. I still dont think 5 miles will be the difference between Royal Oak getting 2 and Warren/St Clair shores getting close to a foot. No ones getting even close to foot of snow. I think were dealing with is 1-3" versus 4-7" any shift west and there you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 No ones getting even close to foot of snow. I think were dealing with is 1-3" versus 4-7" any shift west and there you go While I agree with you, anything is possible in a slow moving deformation band. Look at feb 5th. That low wasnt that strong and we got 6 inches in 7-9 hours. We shall see if we see a west shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 Good luck to those in the Eastern Great Lakes with this storm! Hopefully winter's farewell goes out with a bang! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 18Z GEFS not budging much either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Temps have been pretty steady at 36 and hasnt melted crap So what kinda snowcover you have up there? Just mostly piles here . Although many are some of those parking lots snowbanks asking to be around til May with all the water they have in them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Mostly sleet/rain now with a few flakes. Temp 34 so accums are done. 1.5" snow/sleet total. Jumped the gun earlier this morning by going with no accumulations but profile below 850 verified warmer than even the warmest model so the heavier totals had no chance to materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 We still have the glacier on the ground here. It made me think about when we last had winter snowcover hang around into the middle of March. Yeah, we always get snow accumulations well into March but it's usually new snow that melts in a day or two at the most. It's been awhile since we've had a glacier heading into mid March. Also, the rivers still have ice on them here. It's also been awhile since we've still had solid ice on the rivers going into mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Mostly sleet/rain now with a few flakes. Temp 34 so accums are done. 1.5" snow/sleet total. Jumped the gun earlier this morning by going with no accumulations but profile below 850 verified warmer than even the warmest model so the heavier totals had no chance to materialize. Our very wet snow accumulation from earlier today is disappearing with the temp in the mid 30s, however the glacier remains. Actually, everytime it snows on the glacier, it makes it thicker because the snow doesn't melt easily off of it. Next up: Thick fog tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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