kab2791 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Euro had the same precip for Cleveland as mount Clemens. I'd assume the lake will help them. You think dtx will issue watches? No, DTX going with 1"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 You're going too far off the deep end. LOL. My revised prediction: Lake Ontario to Bloor St. : Trace to 1" Midtown Toronto to Highway 401: 1-2" Highway 401 to Steeles Ave: 2-3" Vaughan/Markham (York Region): 3-4" Your level headedness ruled the day. I should have stuck with my 1-2" call instead of going nuts. But remember, the warm GFS had us under 1c at the sfc throughout the morning, so when I saw Pearson sitting at +3, you can understand my concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 No, DTX going with 1"... Partly cloudy skies on Feb 5 ftl part 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I think 2-4 would be a good call for DET. Just my precition though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 DTX going with Locally 1"...get ready for 4-7 inches. DTX has been horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I think 2-4 would be a good call for DET. Just my precition though. That seems like a reasonable guess at this point. Tough call there as they are right on the edge between lighter amounts and heavier amounts. I'd expect totals to rapidly increase to the east like in the eastern part of the thumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 My Call is up to 3 inches from Ann Arbor to Pontiac...1-2 inches west toward Flint, Brighton and Howell 2-4 inches from DTW to Mt Clemens 4-6 inches in St.Clair County and near 8 inches along Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 The good thing this time around is that the trend is west and not east like the past few storms we've tracked. Still time for a bit more west trend or east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 The problem I see with DTX is that models like the GFS/Euro show a lot of the QPF Thurs Night, but DTX is forecasting only 1" on Thurs with just a chance of snow Thurs night, with little accumulation. I don't get it, unless they're playing cautios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 The problem I see with DTX is that models like the GFS/Euro show a lot of the QPF Thurs Night, but DTX is forecasting only 1" on Thurs with just a chance of snow Thurs night, with little accumulation. I don't get it, unless they're playing cautios. Never know.. but anyways I kinda feel good when they bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 The problem I see with DTX is that models like the GFS/Euro show a lot of the QPF Thurs Night, but DTX is forecasting only 1" on Thurs with just a chance of snow Thurs night, with little accumulation. I don't get it, unless they're playing cautios. Haven't looked at any soundings but is it possible there are thermal issues? I know you're on the good side of the blue 850 line but things are going to be warm initially. Maybe they think the transition will take longer than the models prog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 The problem I see with DTX is that models like the GFS/Euro show a lot of the QPF Thurs Night, but DTX is forecasting only 1" on Thurs with just a chance of snow Thurs night, with little accumulation. I don't get it, unless they're playing cautios. Cautious? This morning they issued WWA for Macomb & Oakland and nothing. In fact temps were around 33-35 most of the morning. Issued no WWA for the 500 cars that went into the ditches last friday Morning caused widespread accidents. Ignore the fact to issue anything with that 3-5 inch event Saturday Night. Roads were horrible I left for 2 min and got rear ended luckly nothing happened. "The safe call" and this point is to forecast at least 1-3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I don't see anything wrong with what dtx is doing. I would put out a special weather statement saying the potential of accumlating snowfall, and then wait for the 0z models tonight. A few weeks ago, all the models shifted dramitically north for one run (0z) and all the models showed 6+ inches for S. WI. The next set of runs, was way south again. A little trend east, and the DTX area hardly gets anything. I think they are playing this just right. If the 0z shows it, put out a winter storm watch tonight, and then wait for the 12z runs to issue warnings or WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I don't see anything wrong with what dtx is doing. I would put out a special weather statement saying the potential of accumlating snowfall, and then wait for the 0z models tonight. A few weeks ago, all the models shifted dramitically north for one run (0z) and all the models showed 6+ inches for S. WI. The next set of runs, was way south again. A little trend east, and the DTX area hardly gets anything. I think they are playing this just right. If the 0z shows it, put out a winter storm watch tonight, and then wait for the 12z runs to issue warnings or WWA. May be your best post ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Haven't looked at any soundings but is it possible there are thermal issues? I know you're on the good side of the blue 850 line but things are going to be warm initially. Maybe they think the transition will take longer than the models prog? No, they're just going with little to no precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I don't see anything wrong with what dtx is doing. I would put out a special weather statement saying the potential of accumlating snowfall, and then wait for the 0z models tonight. A few weeks ago, all the models shifted dramitically north for one run (0z) and all the models showed 6+ inches for S. WI. The next set of runs, was way south again. A little trend east, and the DTX area hardly gets anything. I think they are playing this just right. If the 0z shows it, put out a winter storm watch tonight, and then wait for the 12z runs to issue warnings or WWA. Little trend west and u got 6+. Trends always happen where an area that once were looking for alot of precip get less. That's the point of a watch. To just lay out the possibilities. dtx has been in alot of tough situations this year and haven't excelled in any of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 This isn't just about shifts, but whether there is enough cold air on all the levels where the moisture is at for the entire run. DTX metions little precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Little trend west and u got 6+. Trends always happen where an area that once were looking for alot of precip get less. That's the point of a watch. To just lay out the possibilities You also don't post a watch when the graident is so tight when litle shifts means everything.. Put out a SWS, and then wait for the 0z runs. No need to rush things. This is still 24+ hours out I believe, so they have time for the 0z and 12z runs. May be your best post ever. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Next 3 hours are going to be interesting. Have a batch of heavy precip moving in from the south. Meanwhile 925/850 temps continue to cool in response to evaporation process. 20z RUC shows this process continuing through about 1z before WAA kicks in. Could be a few hours of some +SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 FWIW...TWC has 1-3 inches of Snow/Wind for SEMI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Next 3 hours are going to be interesting. Have a batch of heavy precip moving in from the south. Meanwhile 925/850 temps continue to cool in response to evaporation process. 20z RUC shows this process continuing through about 1z before WAA kicks in. Could be a few hours of some +SN. BTW: whats your local cant find that town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 You also don't post a watch when the graident is so tight when litle shifts means everything.. Put out a SWS, and then wait for the 0z runs. No need to rush things. This is still 24+ hours out I believe, so they have time for the 0z and 12z runs. Thank you The gradient isn't tight for Cleveland and Pittsburgh? I could careless if they issue a watch or not. Its going to snow where it wants but dtx is pretty useless this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 The gradient isn't tight for Cleveland and Pittsburgh? I could careless if they issue a watch or not. Its going to snow where it wants but dtx is pretty useless this winter. What storm have they nailed besides the Feb 1st storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 BTW: whats your local cant find that town That's because it doesn't exist anymore, except in my heart, so that's why I keep it as my location. I'm in Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I aint worried about anything. Things will cool off faster. This has last Saturday written all over it.. 2-4 for SEMI is my call! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 That's because it doesn't exist anymore, except in my heart, so that's why I keep it as my location. I'm in Toronto. LOL! I got tons of family around the GTA great city! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I don't know what to think of this one. I personally can't recall such a system just east of Detroit over to Toronto ( in that area ) like this that had such little QPF on the west side ESPECIALLY one that is closed off. Typically you would see a decent band stretching back to all of lower Michigan ( to the lake ) down into Indiana and Ohio especially the central/western parts of OH. Pretty obvious something is off and could be why DTX is going the route it is. They are unsure. Should be noted to that we have a very impressive ridge east/ne of this thing so not sure how quick this thing will be able to move off either. I suspect there is gonna be a ton of surprises with this thing. Too soon to say who. Via seasonal trends my bet would be on Detroit area down into central/W.Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 The gradient isn't tight for Cleveland and Pittsburgh? I could careless if they issue a watch or not. Its going to snow where it wants but dtx is pretty useless this winter. It is tight for them also, but if things stand the way it is right now, they would get crushed (6-12+). DTX is on the edge right now. Why can't they wait 8 more hours for the 0z runs? There is no harm in waiting at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I don't know what to think of this one. I personally can't recall such a system just east of Detroit over to Toronto ( in that area ) like this that had such little QPF on the west side ESPECIALLY one that is closed off. Typically you would see a decent band stretching back to all of lower Michigan ( to the lake ) down into Indiana and Ohio especially the central/western parts of OH. Pretty obvious something is off and could be why DTX is going the route it is. They are unsure. Should be noted to that we have a very impressive ridge east/ne of this thing so not sure how quick this thing will be able to move off either. I suspect there is gonna be a ton of surprises with this thing. Too soon to say who. Via seasonal trends my bet would be on Detroit area down into central/W.Ohio. Agree...this is going to be another day for me in front of the comp instead of doing bids..LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 What storm have they nailed besides the Feb 1st storm? None. They got lucky with the Feb 1 storm. If it wasn't for the NW trend they would have been way off. They changed the amounts and graphics 15 times so your bound to get it right changing it every hour. Not an easy job and wouldn't want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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