wisconsinwx Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 Looking at the forecast, it would appear this is likely to be our last appreciable snowfall. I'm fine with that. After this storm, bring on spring! I got 4-5 inches this March, which is better than recent Marches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 So if this tracks west on the rest of the models today, I doubt they issue a watch or an advisory? If that 1.25-1.50 shifts less than 100 miles west..That has the possibility to disrupt this area..(understatement) DTX will issue a headline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 So close but so far...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Urgh...Although I get lake effect snow, I really think you guys get more synoptic snow there than I do. This area STINKS for storm tracks. This winter has just been one huge anomaly. Rare is the day se MI comes in with a higher seasonal snowfall then here but ala we have it this winter. Sure it has happened in the past but it is pretty rare. Just a ton of odd systems this winter. Reasons why you average close to double what they do and here it is more like 10-20 depending on the area out that way. Could be many years before this happens again so let them enjoy it. Soon enough the more classic/typical track to Toledo/Detroit from S.IN will be back again and we will see a return to our normal snowfall distribution across the state. Not wishing it on them but i'll be happy to see it back. Ofcourse we got screwed with the lake stuff to this winter so that did not help either especially down this way with the lacking w/wnw/nw flow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 12Z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 This winter has just been one huge anomaly. Rare is the day se MI comes in with a higher seasonal snowfall then here but ala we have it this winter. Sure it has happened in the past but it is pretty rare. Just a ton of odd systems this winter. Reasons why you average close to double what they do and here it is more like 10-20 depending on the area out that way. Could be many years before this happens again so let them enjoy it. Soon enough the more classic/typical track to Toledo/Detroit from S.IN will be back again and we will see a return to our normal snowfall distribution across the state. Not wishing it on them but i'll be happy to see it back. Ofcourse we got screwed with the lake stuff to this winter so that did not help either especially down this way with the lacking w/wnw/nw flow events. Im not 100% sure on what you mean here...but ok. Classic tracks? So what SEMI has seen so far the last 4 winters isnt your "classic" tracks? Elaborate some please..Im not even close to your level of knowledge but from what Ive seen over the last 4 years or so whould coincide with "classic" GL tracks..PM me if you want so we dont have to tie up this thread with a regional debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Im not 100% sure on what you mean here...but ok. Classic tracks? So what SEMI has seen so far the last 4 winters isnt your "classic" tracks? Elaborate some please..Im not even close to your level of knowledge but from what Ive seen over the last 4 years or so whould coincide with "classic" GL tracks..PM me if you want so we dont have to tie up this thread with a regional debate. Typically there is either the track to Lake MI ( almost forgot this one ) heading nne/ne ( how this area tends to get a bit of it's LES on backside ) and not turning due east as we had this winter or there is the one to Toledo/Detroit which YES we saw a ton of over the past 4 years or so EXCEPT this winter and to some degree last. Reasons why there was over 100 here in 08-09 and almost 100 in 07-08. Reasons why again we have the averages that we do. Really nothing to argue or debate. Most of the big time blizzards ( 67/78/79/99 ) have had that as well. Granted 78 kinda backed in a bit from the east but still and thus note the snowfall from it with 2 feet+ out this way and much less out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 GGEM similar to last nights euro. As of now looks like a close miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Looks to be about finished here.. Temp up to 34F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 We gotta hit...details soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 12Z Euro DET FRI 00Z 11-MAR 0.9 -0.5 1011 95 84 0.10 546 538 FRI 06Z 11-MAR 0.2 -1.5 1009 91 100 0.11 542 535 FRI 12Z 11-MAR -1.3 -3.1 1008 88 96 0.19 541 534 FRI 18Z 11-MAR 1.3 -4.3 1009 77 98 0.07 542 535 SAT 00Z 12-MAR 2.7 -4.2 1009 75 70 0.02 544 537 DTW: FRI 00Z 11-MAR 1.1 -1.1 1011 92 85 0.06 546 537 FRI 06Z 11-MAR 0.0 -1.9 1010 88 96 0.08 542 535 FRI 12Z 11-MAR -1.6 -3.2 1010 85 85 0.12 541 533 FRI 18Z 11-MAR 2.9 -3.4 1010 68 85 0.05 543 535 SAT 00Z 12-MAR 3.0 -3.2 1010 68 47 0.01 546 538 MTC: FRI 00Z 11-MAR 0.7 -0.3 1011 95 85 0.12 547 538 FRI 06Z 11-MAR 0.1 -1.5 1008 92 100 0.10 543 536 FRI 12Z 11-MAR -1.3 -3.1 1008 89 98 0.22 540 534 FRI 18Z 11-MAR 0.7 -4.5 1009 80 98 0.11 542 535 SAT 00Z 12-MAR 1.9 -4.4 1009 81 76 0.05 544 536 PTK: FRI 00Z 11-MAR 1.0 -1.8 1012 91 91 0.08 546 537 FRI 06Z 11-MAR -0.4 -2.5 1010 87 93 0.06 543 535 FRI 12Z 11-MAR -1.9 -3.4 1010 86 86 0.13 541 534 FRI 18Z 11-MAR 2.4 -3.6 1009 69 87 0.05 543 535 SAT 00Z 12-MAR 2.2 -3.4 1009 73 51 0.02 545 538 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 We gotta hit...details soon Kab....Love your enthusiasm bro! Move West you SOB secondary! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 True...Detroit has been stealing everyone's snow this Winter. Although some of the most intense snow Ive ever seen was on the West Side of Michigan. TSSN and insane rates in a classic SW LES event. Wont ever forget that. It was while driving to Chi Town a few years back..Had to pull over on 94. Worst part..It was at night. That was 1st time in life that snow actually scared me..lol 94 gets downright scary during some of those intense LES events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 94 gets downright scary during some of those intense LES events. that is for sure...that event last year on new years day I think it was...94 was being lead by a cop with people behind it going under 20mph for miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 that is for sure...that event last year on new years day I think it was...94 was being lead by a cop with people behind it going under 20mph for miles. I was out in that event and it was pretty intense. Still not quite my worst driving experience - that honor goes to 1/22/05. I-80 in northwest Indiana literally had about 6" of snow on it with deep ruts. On the interstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 12Z Euro DET FRI 00Z 11-MAR 0.9 -0.5 1011 95 84 0.10 546 538 FRI 06Z 11-MAR 0.2 -1.5 1009 91 100 0.11 542 535 FRI 12Z 11-MAR -1.3 -3.1 1008 88 96 0.19 541 534 FRI 18Z 11-MAR 1.3 -4.3 1009 77 98 0.07 542 535 SAT 00Z 12-MAR 2.7 -4.2 1009 75 70 0.02 544 537 DTW: FRI 00Z 11-MAR 1.1 -1.1 1011 92 85 0.06 546 537 FRI 06Z 11-MAR 0.0 -1.9 1010 88 96 0.08 542 535 FRI 12Z 11-MAR -1.6 -3.2 1010 85 85 0.12 541 533 FRI 18Z 11-MAR 2.9 -3.4 1010 68 85 0.05 543 535 SAT 00Z 12-MAR 3.0 -3.2 1010 68 47 0.01 546 538 MTC: FRI 00Z 11-MAR 0.7 -0.3 1011 95 85 0.12 547 538 FRI 06Z 11-MAR 0.1 -1.5 1008 92 100 0.10 543 536 FRI 12Z 11-MAR -1.3 -3.1 1008 89 98 0.22 540 534 FRI 18Z 11-MAR 0.7 -4.5 1009 80 98 0.11 542 535 SAT 00Z 12-MAR 1.9 -4.4 1009 81 76 0.05 544 536 PTK: FRI 00Z 11-MAR 1.0 -1.8 1012 91 91 0.08 546 537 FRI 06Z 11-MAR -0.4 -2.5 1010 87 93 0.06 543 535 FRI 12Z 11-MAR -1.9 -3.4 1010 86 86 0.13 541 534 FRI 18Z 11-MAR 2.4 -3.6 1009 69 87 0.05 543 535 SAT 00Z 12-MAR 2.2 -3.4 1009 73 51 0.02 545 538 MTC is mount Clemens I assume? Not bad. How does Cleveland and parts of Ontario do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I could be wrong but isnt CLE looking at close to a foot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Euro shows .5-.6 for CLE I could be wrong but isnt CLE looking at close to a foot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Euro shows .5-.6 for CLE Could be a decent ratio snow too. Just east of us into Ontario probably has close to an inch of precip. Should be another interesting nowcast event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Not bad. Ended up with 4.5 inches here. I predicted 3-5. 1100 AM SNOW FOND DU LAC 43.78N 88.45W 03/09/2011 M4.5 INCH FOND DU LAC WI TRAINED SPOTTER TOTAL SNOWFALL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bl1zzard Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 12Z Euro DET I think a lot of SEMI people will get burned by the tight gradient of snowfall from east to west. I'm looking for 2-4" for the Detroit area and up-river suburbs. Oakland, Washtenaw and Genessee coutny I'm expecting more in the range of 1-3". Doesn't look like a major snowfall to me. I've seen a lot of these secondary low type situations and they almost always seem to end up further east than anticipated and moisture typically seems to have a harder time working westward than modeled. So, I wouldn't get my hopes up too much for more than 4" yet, except maybe the Port Huron area who I could see getting 4-6" of snow. Obviously there's the potential (as shown on some of the 12z models) for this to be a more significant storm with 4"+ over a decent portion of SEMI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I think a lot of SEMI people will get burned by the tight gradient of snowfall from east to west. I'm looking for 2-4" for the Detroit area and up-river suburbs. Oakland, Washtenaw and Genessee coutny I'm expecting more in the range of 1-3". Doesn't look like a major snowfall to me. I've seen a lot of these secondary low type situations and they almost always seem to end up further east than anticipated and moisture typically seems to have a harder time working westward than modeled. So, I wouldn't get my hopes up too much for more than 4" yet, except maybe the Port Huron area who I could see getting 4-6" of snow. Obviously there's the potential (as shown on some of the 12z models) for this to be a more significant storm with 4"+ over a decent portion of SEMI. Nice to see you here!...I'm still skeptical in these situations too, but after Saturday's 3.5", where most models were too far east with the mid-level deformation, I'm interested to see how far west this band may go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Most of the precip here today ending up being snow/sleet. The snow came down really intense at times with giant flakes. However, it was some of the wettest snow I have ever seen. There wasn't a lot of accumulation with the sleet mixed in and how wet the snow was. There was basically just enough slush accumulation to cover up the areas where grass was previously showing. The temp was around 32 or 33 the whole time plus it was daylight. It looks like it has finally turned over to mainly rain now with just some snow and sleet mixed in but it's going to be ending soon anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Revised snowfall accumulation prediction for Toronto: 0. Still light snow here for last 3 hours, maybe more than a trace accumulating. Nowcasting mode still in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 About 1.5" of snow here real compacted down due to on and off rain spurts but the temp has fallen below 0 where it was 2 earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Wsw issued for Pitt. Based on the euro wouldn't they be too warm and the watches should be further west and north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Cleveland has a WSW for 6-10" locally 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 very tight gradient on the NAM, but areas like Port Huron now in the 0.5+zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Cleveland has a WSW for 6-10" locally 12" Euro had the same precip for Cleveland as mount Clemens. I'd assume the lake will help them. You think dtx will issue watches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Revised snowfall accumulation prediction for Toronto: 0. Being reactionary FTL. Although sfc temps were warmer and a warm layer around 925 was much larger than forecasted, we have managed to be mostly/all snow here. Got home to about 1.1" of water laden snow and coming down moderately. Quite the difference just to my south. In Hamilton it was rain mixed with some pellets. Around east Oakville it started to mix with some flakes. By the time I stopped for lunch in Toronto near the lakeshore it was mostly snow but very wet and barely accumulating, and then when I got up to my place the roads were becoming covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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