Hoosier Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 00z UKMET 999 mb just east of the OH/PA border at 48 hours. Moves due north to a position over Lake Erie at 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 00Z GGEM 999 over Buffalo hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 00z GFS is all snow for MSN, shows 5-6" of concrete coming down through tomorrow evening. The warm conveyor aloft is not gonna get much stronger than now, and will be gone by sunrise. This is officially interesting. What we need now is a heavy burst of precip to saturate the dry air and get things started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 00Z GGEM 999 over Buffalo hr 60 SSC this would be the way you could get screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 central IA has been getting it good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 SSC this would be the way you could get screwed Well, that's with the 2nd storm. I never expected a lot from that (except a lot of rain). My interest in terms of snow is with tomorrow afternoon/evening along the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 00z GFS is all snow for MSN, shows 5-6" of concrete coming down through tomorrow evening. The warm conveyor aloft is not gonna get much stronger than now, and will be gone by sunrise. This is officially interesting. What we need now is a heavy burst of precip to saturate the dry air and get things started. My initial inclination with these kinds of tracks is that Mke will get screwed while Madison gets a bunch. While I didn't think that this entire time, I'm now back to seeing that being the case. We're at 35, and it may be tough to get back near freezing. Not only that, I have an inkling some dry air is inhibiting the precip from expanding across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 LULZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Like canuck said, it makes you wonder if the models will be in catch up mode. I'd be watching with interest in Ohio, eastern Michigan and even parts of Indiana. SE MI was struck by another surprise snowstorm Saturday night due to a similar setup. A few models hinted at it 2-3 days ahead of time, then they fizzled this scenario out til nowcast time (well, at least they had snow way east), then the region was hit with a 3-5" snowfall. I purposely emptied my rain gague once the rain switched to snow. Ended up with 0.30" water and 4.7" snow, although no models had over 0.10" qpf as snow except the WRF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 RUC/HRRR both show 30-35 dbz snows throughout S. WI around 8 hours from now. HRRR lasts some good snows for at least 6-7 hours, while RUC has most of the precip out a bit sooner. RUC is about 5 inches of snow here, while HRRR is like 1 (everywhere around me was 4-5+ lol) Should be interesting. 32.5 right now here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Badger- Is it sticking to the concrete? Money- Where do you find the HRRR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ New run is out to hr 4 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Thanks Coming down good here, although still not sticking to the roads yet... think that will change soon. Temp at 32.1F at the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Tonight's 00z RGEM and GFS have trended a tad colder for the Toronto area. The RGEM is now showing a period of moderate to heavy snow from 1 pm to 6-7 pm tomorrow before changing to rain. The 12z RGEM from earlier today mainly showed a mix of rain and snow. My preliminary snowfall forecast for the city of Toronto is as follows: Lake Ontario shoreline to Bloor St.: 2-4" (5-10 cm) Midtown Toronto from Bloor St. to Highway 401: 3-5" (8-13 cm) Highway 401 and points north to Steeles Ave: 5-7" (13-18 cm) I'm really interested to see how this plays out in Ottawa. EC has us getting up to 33F tomorrow. Hopefully that will be yet another EC bust. Great to see our tax dollars at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 GEFS WRT Secondary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 GEFS WRT Secondary Ouch! That's going to be ugly for Ottawa. All that rain on top of perhaps 6-8" of fresh snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 RUC/HRRR both show 30-35 dbz snows throughout S. WI around 8 hours from now. HRRR lasts some good snows for at least 6-7 hours, while RUC has most of the precip out a bit sooner. RUC is about 5 inches of snow here, while HRRR is like 1 (everywhere around me was 4-5+ lol) Should be interesting. 32.5 right now here. Everywhere? Even near the lake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Everywhere? Even near the lake? msn will be lucky to get 2" we aren't getting squatttttttt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 msn will be lucky to get 2" we aren't getting squatttttttt. Well, he said throughout. I guess we've even been downgraded out of Southern Wisconsin since we're such a snow embarrassment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 msn will be lucky to get 2" we aren't getting squatttttttt. The latest GFS as mentioned gives MSN 5 inches and us a couple (maybe 3 for me if I'm lucky). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Saturday Part II ftw! Would this be all snow though is the question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Well, he said throughout. I guess we've even been downgraded out of Southern Wisconsin since we're such a snow embarrassment. Give you credit for holding out... Miracles don't happen here though bud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 The latest GFS as mentioned gives MSN 5 inches and us a couple (maybe 3 for me if I'm lucky). Madison is not getting anywhere near 5" with the temps and you will be lucky to get .3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 Give you credit for holding out... Miracles don't happen here though bud. You're right. I will, though, direct you to Feb 20. Coincidentally, look who started that thread. I got about 4-5 inches when I wasn't sure if I would get much of anything, followed by 3-4 inches from a disturbance. A nice surprise. Widespread surprises don't happen, so you are right about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Give you credit for holding out... Miracles don't happen here though bud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 You're right. I will, though, direct you to Feb 20. Coincidentally, look who started that thread. I got about 4-5 inches when I wasn't sure if I would get much of anything, followed by 3-4 inches from a disturbance. A nice surprise. Widespread surprises don't happen, so you are right about that. Feb 20th was a lot more favorable and 4-5" by you wasn't really all that much of a surprise. we knew there was going to be a tight gradient in mke and it played out perfect imo. maybe a little high here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 This system is disappointing. Really surprised it couldn't do any better than this up north. It left so much energy potential behind it is trying to spin up another low further east lol. Story of the last two good for **** winters in WI as a whole.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 Feb 20th was a lot more favorable and 4-5" by you wasn't really all that much of a surprise. we knew there was going to be a tight gradient in mke and it played out perfect imo. maybe a little high here. You know what made it a miracle? Temps started out around 34 or 35 at the onset, yet north of I94 pretty much avoided any rain; there were periods of freezing rain and sleet, but a cold rain was sparsely found north of 94, even with marginal temps. That made it a near miracle in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 You know what made it a miracle? Temps started out around 34 or 35 at the onset, yet north of I94 pretty much avoided any rain; there were periods of freezing rain and sleet, but a cold rain was sparsely found north of 94, even with marginal temps. That made it a near miracle in my book. Meh - the setup was modeled pretty nice for the eastern counties along with decent precip rates... naso much this time around in the east. There has been zero chance here for a week. Stronger it was gonig west and weaker is what we have now.. still rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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