snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Although those GGEM runs might end up being too extreme in the end, I give it a point for suggesting a less progressive solution and basically sticking with it. Assuming the 2nd low idea verifies, yeah, GGEM with the gold. I'd give the silver to the EURO. I think with the exception of one 0z run (maybe the 3/7?), it had the secondary redevelopment as well. Models really fooled me. I thought we were going to do the same ole overamplification song and dance with the GGEM/EURO combo. Looks like this time it might pan out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Hey I'm all for that, but you can have it. This storm seemed like an after thought until now. The ones that spring out of nowhere are the best. No lost sleep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 The ones that spring out of nowhere are the best. No lost sleep! Yeah, hopefully someone goes from a T-6" forecast....shouldn't be a problem with EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 The ones that spring out of nowhere are the best. No lost sleep! Canuck, what are you thinking for Ottawa? EC seems to think snow followed by rain. Maybe 6-8" of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 NAM back to showing the blue blob on top of me. Soundings will be interesting as always. What are your thoughts on gthe snow tommorow SSC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I've seen some flakes, ice pellets, and rain drops so far. Still a hair above freezing, heavier stuff coming in soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Canuck, what are you thinking for Ottawa? EC seems to think snow followed by rain. Maybe 6-8" of snow? Probably will go to rain Thursday morning but yeah, 6-10" should be down before it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 What are your thoughts on gthe snow tommorow SSC? Thermal profiles are so marginal that if the models are too cool by like 0.5c, we're screwed. That being said, they are in very good agreement that an evap. cooling wet snowfall event will occur. I'd go 2-5" range right now. 0z NAM showing 6-8" but that's a best case scenario involving a later changeover to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Thermal profiles are so marginal that if the models are too cool by like 0.5c, we're screwed. That being said, they are in very good agreement that an evap. cooling wet snowfall event will occur. I'd go 2-5" range right now. 0z NAM showing 6-8" but that's a best case scenario involving a later changeover to rain. Wow NAM showing 6-8''. You think it's right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Light snow now, all snow. Temp hovering a bit above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Wow NAM showing 6-8''. You think it's right? Probably too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Probably too high. BTW EURO has us getting 2-4" and 3-7" with that interesting storm for the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 0z RGEm has a secondary going from eastern tennesse to eastern ohio. Mostly rain up to hour 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 We have snow mixing with the light rain now. It's all snow everywhere north and west of me. It's too bad this system is a fair amount weaker than what the GFS was showing a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 BTW EURO has us getting 2-4" and 3-7" with that interesting storm for the end of the week. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Badger, HRRR has you in the 5-7.5 range with more to come after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 0z RGEm has a secondary going from eastern tennesse to eastern ohio. Mostly rain up to hour 48. It has snow for here from 12z to 18z Thu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 GFS brings the secondary over Southern ON, with some defo snows in SE MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 GFS brings the secondary over Southern ON, with some defo snows in SE MI. Nothing like an addiction, keeps bringing you back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Nothing like an addiction, keeps bringing you back in. I just couldn't quit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Tonight's 00z RGEM and GFS have trended a tad colder for the Toronto area. The RGEM is now showing a period of moderate to heavy snow from 1 pm to 6-7 pm tomorrow before changing to rain. The 12z RGEM from earlier today mainly showed a mix of rain and snow. My preliminary snowfall forecast for the city of Toronto is as follows: Lake Ontario shoreline to Bloor St.: 2-4" (5-10 cm) Midtown Toronto from Bloor St. to Highway 401: 3-5" (8-13 cm) Highway 401 and points north to Steeles Ave: 5-7" (13-18 cm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Nothing like an addiction, keeps bringing you back in. Like canuck said, it makes you wonder if the models will be in catch up mode. I'd be watching with interest in Ohio, eastern Michigan and even parts of Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I just couldn't quit... As long as I don't have to drive in it, let it snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I wasn't really expecting much of any snow with this storm, but it didn't take very long to change to all snow. Big flakes are coming down pretty good and the ground is white already. There isn't much more precip moving into the CR area, though. The best stuff is southeast(rain) and northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Badger, HRRR has you in the 5-7.5 range with more to come after. Interesting... All snow still, starting to accumulate on some surfaces. I've seen some needle aggregates coming down. Very light precip tho when it comes down to it, ****loads of evap cooling aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 It was sleeting when i took a run about 30 minutes ago. Nothing sticking to the roads...yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Tonight's 00z RGEM and GFS have trended a tad colder for the Toronto area. The RGEM is now showing a period of moderate to heavy snow from 1 pm to 6-7 pm tomorrow before changing to rain. The 12z RGEM from earlier today mainly showed a mix of rain and snow. My preliminary snowfall forecast for the city of Toronto is as follows: Lake Ontario shoreline to Bloor St.: 2-4" (5-10 cm) Midtown Toronto from Bloor St. to Highway 401: 3-5" (8-13 cm) Highway 401 and points north to Steeles Ave: 5-7" (13-18 cm) Nice call. I could see a tight gradient like that come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Snowing, sleeting, and raining right now lol. Each band is bringing the atmosphere closer to saturation, and at the same time there's still dry air coming in causing evap cooling, so this might end up being a good setup for frozen precip (snow and sleet) within the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 We were expecting a lot of rain here, but have only managed 0.14" so far. By the time the rain/snow line reaches us tomorrow morning there will only be enough moisture leftover for a few flurries or light snow showers. The second wave action will miss us to the east. It's a good thing we had good luck with snow earlier in the season, cause our luck after Feb 2 has sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 00z UKMET 999 mb just east of the OH/PA border at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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