Organizing Low Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 It's amazing to see how much broader/flatter/weaker the models are with the H5 trough, at least initially, compared to their depictions of about 48 hours ago. AFDs claiming stronger/further north storm = fail. its always SE this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 its always SE this year Since GHD at least, yeah. Looks like you're gonna get buried! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 EC going with rain mixed with wet snow for Toronto tomorrow. No accums. That is going to bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Since GHD at least, yeah. Looks like you're gonna get buried! buried and then heavy rained on lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 It's worth mentioning we're still at 36 F this hour in Milwaukee. The predicted high is 42, so this might have minor implications if we don't get near 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Prelim I'd go 2-5" for mby. I'll call it now the 55" benchmark goes down with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I'll call it now the 55" benchmark goes down with this storm. Your thoughts briefly? I'm thinking strong WAA will be abated by the fact the intial storm is become weaker and weaker by the model run. Moreover, there's a feed of low level dry air from that high in QC which should promote evap. cooling. TDs are below freezing until 3z tomorrow or so. Am I missing something that would turns this into more rain than snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Your thoughts briefly? I'm thinking strong WAA will be abated by the fact the intial storm is become weaker and weaker by the model run. Moreover, there's a feed of low level dry air from that high in QC which should promote evap. cooling. TDs are below freezing until 3z tomorrow or so. Am I missing something that would turns this into more rain than snow? I think the only way it goes to rain is if the low backs in further west than expected or if the low level dry air is not as prevalent causing weaker evaporative cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I think the only way it goes to rain is if the low backs in further west than expected or if the low level dry air is not as prevalent causing weaker evaporative cooling Thanks. I was also thinking in the precip/cloud shield is delayed that might allow temps to recover quickly due to strong March insolation. We'll see. I think 54" for the season is a good minimum to go with by tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 The major snow area has definitely shifted SE a bit. Now Waterloo is under a WSW for 5-9" tonight alone! The last couple days it was Northwest and Northcentral Iowa that looked to have the greatest threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 It's worth mentioning we're still at 36 F this hour in Milwaukee. The predicted high is 42, so this might have minor implications if we don't get near 42. Yeah, temps have leveled off at 39° F at MSN, and have slowly declined to 37.6° F on top of the met building. Must be some cold layer aloft mixing down that wasn't expected, since we had good mixing today. Nice precip conveyor shooting right for southern WI we'll see how temps react as that moves in with the sun going down. Wouldn't be surprised to see front end snow/sleet afterall just from evap cooling and the colder temps already in place. A very warm layer over Illinois will definitely force all rain for some hours tonight though as that advects in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 Yeah, temps have leveled off at 39° F at MSN, and have slowly declined to 37.6° F on top of the met building. Must be some cold layer aloft mixing down that wasn't expected, since we had good mixing today. Nice precip conveyor shooting right for southern WI we'll see how temps react as that moves in with the sun going down. Wouldn't be surprised to see front end snow/sleet afterall just from evap cooling and the colder temps already in place. A very warm layer over Illinois will definitely force all rain for some hours tonight though as that advects in. Going along with that, I think there'll definitely be a nowcast element to this. If the trends continue, MKX may have to expand the advisories SE slightly more. Even so, I'm not sure Milwaukee itself has a chance to see advisory snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 So, I am curious what the logic is with this: MKX previously had a zone forecast of a rain/snow mix with a low temp of 36 tonight, now they have shifted to a low temp of 33 and all rain. How could a low of 36 have yielded a chance for some snow to mix in, but a low of 33 not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Thanks. I was also thinking in the precip/cloud shield is delayed that might allow temps to recover quickly due to strong March insolation. We'll see. I think 54" for the season is a good minimum to go with by tomorrow evening. 55.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 So, I am curious what the logic is with this: MKX previously had a zone forecast of a rain/snow mix with a low temp of 36 tonight, now they have shifted to a low temp of 33 and all rain. How could a low of 36 have yielded a chance for some snow to mix in, but a low of 33 not? They don't point forecast, they forecast each different field all at once, so inconsistencies arise without them realizing. That's a pretty bad one though and it's obviously a mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 They don't point forecast, they forecast each different field all at once, so inconsistencies arise without them realizing. That's a pretty bad one though and it's obviously a mistake. My one possible explanation for the mistake is that, at the time of the forecast, there was enough possible error that, even with a min temp of 36, there would be a chance it would hit freezing and mix with snow. Btw, right now it's 35 on my home thermometer. I would have to think it will only go down from there. Will defintely be borderline for most of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 Just watching the temps tonight is going to be worth . Now down to 34.3. I wonder when that warm air advection will move in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Cold rain falling here. Gonna be a rainy night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Today has been a good example of a drain of cold, dry air from the Trent and Ottawa Valleys on NE winds. 39 at DTW, 39 at BUF, only 32 here at YYZ. Should be a similar situation tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 what do ya think money? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 I'm sure Bowme wants to take my bet that the low dips below 33 tonight, since he is so confident we will see squat. I'm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 34 here at the airport. We'll see what happens, MKE is saying 2-4 with isolated spot of 5 inches. Radar looks pretty good right now, a lot of mositure streaming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 38.5 here let the rain begin....outside shot at 1 - 2" tomorrow is my thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Today has been a good example of a drain of cold, dry air from the Trent and Ottawa Valleys on NE winds. 39 at DTW, 39 at BUF, only 32 here at YYZ. Should be a similar situation tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Thanks for sharing your airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Thanks for sharing your airmass. should be a good thump of snow on the front end, i see EC isnt calling for anything in the city but 2-4 in richmond hill. it looked as though the euro was suggesting some backside snow for you too may be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 should be a good thump of snow on the front end, i see EC isnt calling for anything in the city but 2-4 in richmond hill. it looked as though the euro was suggesting some backside snow for you too may be possible. It's weird. Models trend colder and they drop the minimal accums. they already had in. Even the RGEM/GGEM's indicating several hours of snow, so I'm not sure what they're looking at. I respect EC but they've been struggling this winter. They've hit the potentially higher impact events too hard, while the more modest events they've underestimated too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 Waukesha's already hit freezing! That's their expected low, so I guess it stays steady or warms from here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Waukesha's already hit freezing! That's their expected low, so I guess it stays steady or warms from here? Down to 37° F at MSN and 35.4° F on top of the met building, and dropping quickly up there! Dewpoint is 31° F and dropping up there as well, which is a very good sign that things will be below freezing when we hit saturation and the precip gets to the ground. More substantial bands with precip reaching the ground appear to be crossing into WI now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Waukesha's already hit freezing! That's their expected low, so I guess it stays steady or warms from here? Might want to keep this handy, and hit up the Winter Weather tab. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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